IFR just 5.4% of the time

Jay,

Well, I have just obtained my IR last summer, my experience is limited
but already overwhelmingly positive. Here's why:

1. VFR conditions prevail roughly 95% of the time, even here in the
rough-and-tumble Midwest.

Numbers are lower here in northern Europe, but they are still way above
50 percent. However, that's only partly relevant. The reason: As a
pilot, you don't care about the average. You care about a specific day -
the one day you wanna go. Someone better at math than myself will tell
you exactly what that does to the chances of having VFR weather if you
select not any one day out of 365 but "next Sunday". It changes the odds
mightily! That's not all.

2. VFR cross country flying can be safely done, with the right
attitude, even in marginal equipment like most of us fly.

Well, sure. my experience with the IR however is that you go with so
much more confidence, with so much less fretting about the weather. A
typical IFR flight may be 10 percent in clouds. in the morning, there
are some wisps hanging low in the vicinity. VFR, I'd have to fret about
whether there will come more, whether fog moves in. IFR, i couldn't care
less. And so goes the flight. It's just so much more relaxing from the
first planning stages.

3. Obtaining the instrument rating is an excellent exercise, and makes
you a much more precise (and thus proficient) pilot, but unless you're
moving up to heavier metal, it won't help you much.

That's just plain wrong. It helps a lot.

4. This explains why just half of all pilots have pursued the
instrument rating, and why a very small percentage of instrument rated
pilots are current or proficient.

And the numbers for that can be found where?

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

On Wed, 28 Feb 2007 09:08:46 -0800, Jay Honeck wrote:

Now, of course, there were an unknown number of marginal VFR conditions in
the data set, but these results pretty well confirm my (non-scientific)
observation that showed us canceling just a handful of flights each year
due to weather, and a truly tiny set that were canceled due to "soft IFR"
conditions that we would feel safe flying Atlas in.

In fact, this does no such thing. That soft IFR could be 94% given the
data you've provided.

Can/would your friend provide the raw data? It would be very interesting
to actually determine the percentages of MVFR, SIFR, IFR, and LIFR. I'm
tempted to see if I can access that same data at the local ASOS.

This would be a fun little analysis, and I don't think the program to do
this would be more than a few minutes of work (the hardest part
possibly being parsing the data, depending upon the format in which it is
provided).

It would also be terrific if he could provide the means whereby he
acquired the data. That might be reusable at other airports.

This could be fun, and we've enough people here that we could get the data
for a lot of different airports.

- Andrew

4. This explains why just half of all pilots have pursued the
instrument rating, and why a very small percentage of instrument rated
pilots are current or proficient.

And the numbers for that can be found where?

First, Thomas, let me congratulate you on the civil tone of your
response. It's quite pleasant, thank you!

The low number of current/proficient IFR pilots has been discussed by
Richard Collins in Flying magazine (I don't remember the source of his
data, sorry), and it's backed up by my personal observations. After
five years of catering to pilots at the hotel, of being our AOPA
Airport Support Network Volunteer, and of running our airport advocacy
group, "Friends of Iowa City Airport", I know one helluva lot of
pilots -- and I can count just TWO that are both current and
proficient instrument pilots.

(Remember, I'm restricting this to Spam-can pilots like us. Obviously
our commercially rated pilot guests are a different breed
altogether...)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

This could be fun, and we've enough people here that we could get the data
for a lot of different airports.

Whew! Clearly your idea of "fun" differs from mine, Andrew -- but
I'll see what I can find out...

;-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"...that were canceled due to 'soft IFR' conditions that we would feel
safe flying Atlas in IF WE HAD THE INSTRUMENT RATING."

Ok. Big difference.

Jose
--
Humans are pack animals. Above all things, they have a deep need to
follow something, be it a leader, a creed, or a mob. Whosoever fully
understands this holds the world in his hands.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

On Feb 28, 9:08 am, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
3. Obtaining the instrument rating is an excellent exercise, and makes
you a much more precise (and thus proficient) pilot, but unless you're
moving up to heavier metal, it won't help you much.

I'm not sure that's true. The instrument rating provides a higher
level or reliability in your family travel. Flying to the coast for
the weekend VFR may mean having to sit around until noon until the
weather clears and having to leave before dark. Even though the % of
days that are IFR are low, its the day that you are stuck on the
ground that affects you.
I've only had to cancel a very small number of trips because the IFR
was not duable (usually ice). However, I've had lots of trips that
would have been canceled VFR but 0.1 hours of IFR made the trip work.

-Robert, CFII

I agree with Andrew, I'd love to be able to download historic ASOS
observations for any airport. Even for non-computer programers, a few
minutes parsing with a spread sheet program could yield all kinds of
interesting things!

Jay, please let us know how your friend obtained the data.
Thanks
Jim

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
oups.com...
This could be fun, and we've enough people here that we could get the
data
for a lot of different airports.

Whew! Clearly your idea of "fun" differs from mine, Andrew -- but
I'll see what I can find out...

;-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 2/28/2007 1:01:29 PM, "Jay Honeck" wrote:

and I can count just TWO that are both current and
proficient instrument pilots.

Did you count me into that mix? I met you last summer. Flying IFR twice
per week since I met you, I am definitely both current and proficient.

--
Peter

Robert,

I've only had to cancel a very small number of trips because the IFR
was not duable (usually ice). However, I've had lots of trips that
would have been canceled VFR but 0.1 hours of IFR made the trip work.


Exactly. Plus, you just don't have to fret weather decisions as much.
All this doesn't mean at all you're flying in clouds for hours or
approaches to the minimums.

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

Jay,

First, Thomas, let me congratulate you on the civil tone of your
response. It's quite pleasant, thank you!

And now you expect me to congratulate you on being condescending and
arrogant without any provocation and totally out of the blue? Why on
earth are you doing that? It could have been an interesting discussion.
Sad...

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)