Stop whining, America!

Everywhere, every day on the radio, television, and in the newspapers, all I
hear is how the "Record Price of Oil" is killing America.

Yet, strangely, Americans keep driving *more*. And I don't see anyone
flying less.

How can this be?

Here are some encouraging stats from the current issue of Newsweek:

- Oil, at $66 per barrel, has set a "nominal" record for high price.
However, in real, adjusted-for-inflation dollars, oil would have to top
$86.72 per barrel to beat the price record set in 1981.

- For a gallon of gas to set a record, it would have to cost $3.12 per
gallon, which was set back in 1981.

- Or, for that matter, it would have to cost $2.67 per gallon, which is what
it cost way back in 1935.

- Since the first "Energy Crisis" in the 1970s, our economy has become MUCH
more energy efficient. Total energy consumption per dollar of GDP has been
cut almost in half since 1973.

- Since 1980, the percentage of consumer spending that goes for energy has
*declined* from 9 to 6 percent, despite "record" prices.

- At the current rate of growth, our economy will DOUBLE in size in 18
years. (This is why, BTW, that even after President Bush's tax cuts,
federal revenues are still 17.5& of GDP -- just one percentage point below
the post-World War II norm.)

- Over the last 40 years, increases in productivity have averaged 2.1% per
year. Since 2001, it's averaged 3.9%.

- Even though rising productivity means that the economy can grow without
adding jobs, we have added over 4 million new jobs since July 2003.

So why is everything doom and gloom in the media? Why are none of these
facts brought to the fore? Is it a not-so-hidden agenda? An ax to grind?
Or is it that Americans are just not happy unless they've got something to
bitch about?

Personally, having been in the business, I think it's just this simple: Bad
news sells newspapers; good news sucks.

Get out and fly, people! Life is good!

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

I asked the owner of one of the gas docks I go to about this summer's
business. It's off 50%. Many boats make airplanes look like gas misers
so maybe that has something to do with it. I know from talking to many
of the folks at my marina that they are definitely using their boats
less due to fuel prices.

Dave
68 7ECA




Jay Honeck wrote:
Everywhere, every day on the radio, television, and in the newspapers, all I
hear is how the "Record Price of Oil" is killing America.

Yet, strangely, Americans keep driving *more*. And I don't see anyone
flying less.

How can this be?

Here are some encouraging stats from the current issue of Newsweek:

- Oil, at $66 per barrel, has set a "nominal" record for high price.
However, in real, adjusted-for-inflation dollars, oil would have to top
$86.72 per barrel to beat the price record set in 1981.

- For a gallon of gas to set a record, it would have to cost $3.12 per
gallon, which was set back in 1981.

- Or, for that matter, it would have to cost $2.67 per gallon, which is what
it cost way back in 1935.

- Since the first "Energy Crisis" in the 1970s, our economy has become MUCH
more energy efficient. Total energy consumption per dollar of GDP has been
cut almost in half since 1973.

- Since 1980, the percentage of consumer spending that goes for energy has
*declined* from 9 to 6 percent, despite "record" prices.

- At the current rate of growth, our economy will DOUBLE in size in 18
years. (This is why, BTW, that even after President Bush's tax cuts,
federal revenues are still 17.5& of GDP -- just one percentage point below
the post-World War II norm.)

- Over the last 40 years, increases in productivity have averaged 2.1% per
year. Since 2001, it's averaged 3.9%.

- Even though rising productivity means that the economy can grow without
adding jobs, we have added over 4 million new jobs since July 2003.

So why is everything doom and gloom in the media? Why are none of these
facts brought to the fore? Is it a not-so-hidden agenda? An ax to grind?
Or is it that Americans are just not happy unless they've got something to
bitch about?

Personally, having been in the business, I think it's just this simple: Bad
news sells newspapers; good news sucks.

Get out and fly, people! Life is good!

:-)

I asked the owner of one of the gas docks I go to about this summer's
business. It's off 50%. Many boats make airplanes look like gas misers so
maybe that has something to do with it. I know from talking to many of the
folks at my marina that they are definitely using their boats
less due to fuel prices.

Well, feeding two 350 cubic inch Chevy engines (as our friends do with their
yacht on Lake Michigan), to go no where at 20 mph, might make any of us
choose to party at the dock instead -- high prices or no.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Well, feeding two 350 cubic inch Chevy engines (as our friends do with their
yacht on Lake Michigan), to go no where at 20 mph, might make any of us
choose to party at the dock instead -- high prices or no.

Tell me again... how much do you pay for a hamburger?

Jose
--
Quantum Mechanics is like this: God =does= play dice with the universe,
except there's no God, and there's no dice. And maybe there's no universe.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Well, feeding two 350 cubic inch Chevy engines (as our friends do with
their yacht on Lake Michigan), to go no where at 20 mph, might make any
of us choose to party at the dock instead -- high prices or no.

Tell me again... how much do you pay for a hamburger?

Point taken, but my hamburger is likely to be served in a different *state*,
possibly with relatives I might not see otherwise.

A boat -- especially an ocean-going yacht -- almost never leaves dock. But
when it does, you go very slowly, usually in seas that make our "turbulence"
seem pretty tame, don't get very far, and you had better have a high credit
limit on your Visa card, cuz re-filling those tanks ain't pretty.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Point taken, but my hamburger is likely to be served in a different *state*,
possibly with relatives I might not see otherwise.

A boat -- especially an ocean-going yacht -- almost never leaves dock. But
when it does, you go very slowly, usually in seas that make our "turbulence"
seem pretty tame, don't get very far, and you had better have a high credit
limit on your Visa card, cuz re-filling those tanks ain't pretty.

Well, I don't think the point was fully taken. I don't know about you
folks in Iowa, but for me going to a different state isn't all that
exciting, especially for a hamburger or a stack of pancakes. And I bet
those boat people are saying to each other "sure, but you get into one
of them flying things and you end up going so fast you can't see much,
and before you blink your eyes, you're there."

And if I wanted to entertain 12 people with my (club's) cherokee, I'd
have to have a high credit rating too, and I wouldn't get very far
either. It would be four trips, most of the time they couldn't talk to
each other, most of them couldn't talk to me most of the time, and (if
we actually went anywhere) we'd have to do it again afterwards.

Or I could entertain them with my aerobatics. I'd entertain you folks
too, in the Darwin writeup.

We won't even talk about if we wanted to to go a place that is served by
Signature. I don't have enough credit cards to cover that!

When the only tool you have is a hammer, =everything= looks like a nail.

Jose
--
Quantum Mechanics is like this: God =does= play dice with the universe,
except there's no God, and there's no dice. And maybe there's no universe.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

Jay Honeck wrote:

A boat -- especially an ocean-going yacht -- almost never leaves dock. But
when it does, you go very slowly, usually in seas that make our "turbulence"
seem pretty tame, don't get very far, and you had better have a high credit
limit on your Visa card, cuz re-filling those tanks ain't pretty.


You know an awful lot about boats for a guy who lives in a place where
the biggest body of water most people ever see has a four legs and a
drain at the bottom

What you're referring to is a motor yacht designed for bombing around
near coastal waters. Aside from the sportfishers that may go offshore,
these boats stay within sight of shore and have their range severely
limited by fuel needs. "Turbulence" out there is no worse than we get
in the air and often less, especially in the summer. Most of these
boats have no business in serious weather.

If you want to see a true oceangoing yacht, look at something like the
Nordhavn 62'. These "expedition yachts" are becoming much more popular
and look more like commercial ships than speedboats. The N62 is
designed to run at 9 knots on a single 225HP diesel engine turning a
40" propeller at very low RPM. A typical 40' coastal stinkpotter will
run 2x450hp engines turning surface-penetrating props that look like
they came out of a blender. The Nordhavn doesn't go fast but with 2500
gallon tanks it can cross an ocean without stopping, and those big slow
diesels are built to run for weeks on end. 2MPG may sound awful but
keep in mind the boat weighs 80 tons (!). And it's bigger inside than
most condos:

http://www.nordhavn.com/62/interiorThumbs.php4

The key is speed. A boat runs most efficiently at "hull speed" which is
a function of length. If you want to push the hull faster than that,
fuel consumption goes up ridiculously, even worse than with airplanes.

-cwk.

Now you folks are on my turf. I can take my Formula 27 PC with twin 350s
20-30 minutes out into the Peconic Bay off Long Island (Robins Island),
anchor, and spend the rest of the day kayaking, swimming, reading,
fishing, etc. A 105 gallon tank is painful to refuel, but I'm only on my
3rd partial fillup of the season (about $3.10 bucks a gallon for 91 octane
currently). Should be good till end of September. I'd estimate I spent
about $500-600 bucks on gas this year. I'll admit to not going out to
Block Island, up the Connecticut River (except earlier in the year), up to
the Island (Martha's Vineyard, Nantucket) because of the cost of fuel. But
I am using my boat as much as ever. You see, boats have anchors......

A boater can adjust to rising gas prices by not driving to far off places
like Nantucket (from LI). No one I know keeps their boats at the dock due
to gas -- minor expense relative to cost of the boat, maintenance, docking
fees, transient docking fees, etc.

Actually, the situation is complicated. We're in a situation now that
we've not been in before vis-a-vis crude oil and it's getting harder and
harder to hide.

There're some internet resources that discuss this:

This guy Matthew Simmons is an energy advisor to the president as well
as (now) a leading researcher into the crude oil situation:

http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/

(it's no accident that our fearless leader GWB is suddenly pushing
hydrogen fuel cells and alternative energies - he's spoken with Simmons
on many occasions recently).

Another place to find some somewhat objective info is he

http://www.peakoil.net/

In fact, if you just google for matthew simmons or "peak oil", you'll
find a lot of discussion about the current symptomology with respect to
high gas prices.

To summarize, we're a bit in the dark but for sure there's a pretty
audible ticking going on strongly resembling a clock on a timebomb.....


Personally, I've changed my future aviation plans to put fuel economy
much closer to the top of the priority list. My current plane, for
example, is limited in many ways, but also burns only about 3 gallons
per hour.
I don't think I'll ever get a plane that burns much more than that...

Just FWIW,

LS
N646F
Jay Honeck wrote:
Everywhere, every day on the radio, television, and in the newspapers, all I
hear is how the "Record Price of Oil" is killing America.

Yet, strangely, Americans keep driving *more*. And I don't see anyone
flying less.

How can this be?

Here are some encouraging stats from the current issue of Newsweek:

- Oil, at $66 per barrel, has set a "nominal" record for high price.
However, in real, adjusted-for-inflation dollars, oil would have to top
$86.72 per barrel to beat the price record set in 1981.

- For a gallon of gas to set a record, it would have to cost $3.12 per
gallon, which was set back in 1981.

- Or, for that matter, it would have to cost $2.67 per gallon, which is what
it cost way back in 1935.

- Since the first "Energy Crisis" in the 1970s, our economy has become MUCH
more energy efficient. Total energy consumption per dollar of GDP has been
cut almost in half since 1973.

- Since 1980, the percentage of consumer spending that goes for energy has
*declined* from 9 to 6 percent, despite "record" prices.

- At the current rate of growth, our economy will DOUBLE in size in 18
years. (This is why, BTW, that even after President Bush's tax cuts,
federal revenues are still 17.5& of GDP -- just one percentage point below
the post-World War II norm.)

- Over the last 40 years, increases in productivity have averaged 2.1% per
year. Since 2001, it's averaged 3.9%.

- Even though rising productivity means that the economy can grow without
adding jobs, we have added over 4 million new jobs since July 2003.

So why is everything doom and gloom in the media? Why are none of these
facts brought to the fore? Is it a not-so-hidden agenda? An ax to grind?
Or is it that Americans are just not happy unless they've got something to
bitch about?

Personally, having been in the business, I think it's just this simple: Bad
news sells newspapers; good news sucks.

Get out and fly, people! Life is good!

:-)

On 2005-08-26, ls wrote:
(it's no accident that our fearless leader GWB is suddenly pushing
hydrogen fuel cells and alternative energies - he's spoken with Simmons
on many occasions recently).

Trouble with hydrogen as a fuel... the only economical way we have of
making it is using fossil fuels, so it is NOT a solution for peak oil.

Not without a major investment in nuclear powerplants (so hydrogen can
be obtained by electrolysis).

--
Dylan Smith, Castletown, Isle of Man
Flying: http://www.dylansmith.net
Frontier Elite Universe: http://www.alioth.net
"Maintain thine airspeed, lest the ground come up and smite thee"