How much longer?

Mike Isaksen wrote:
"Thomas Borchert" ...
Still, the weak dollar makes those numbers more impressive
than I thought. I need to go flying in the US again...


Come on over, many of the FBOs for the overseas pilots are back in full
business:

http://www.eaa-fly.com/

They claim a 50% clientele from Europe (I have no affiliation).

I think America is one of the best bargains considering the exchange. We
should be overrun with Euro tourists this summer,... if the Euro-media stops
the Bush-bashing.

What hasn't returned to the same level is the British flavored fly-schools.
Any ideas on that?



Euro weenies are jealous of America.
We are the only country with balls

The Euro weenies have been de-nutted by
politically correct tyranny and weak men
sycophants with small dicks

Thank God America is made up of Viking and Irish and
Native American and Southern fighting lineage

The Euro weenies have been weakened by Muslim PC Tyranny
and soft white male sycophants

Right now America is being weakened by "Kissing the Black
Ass" and the Homosexual agenda. Thank God we are beginning
to see our mistakes and have begun the process of drifting
away from the Fags and Blacks and California fruits and nuts.

Except the FAA it is ruined by the above PC stupidity
just like Europe

The FAA needs to be disbanded
Start over

"DoItNow" wrote ...
Euro weenies are jealous of America.
We are the only country with balls.

The Euro weenies have been de-nutted by
politically correct blah blah blah blah...


MAW... better get Abner back in the box... it's Sunday and we gots company
coming.

"Phil J" wrote in message
...
On Apr 5, 3:32 am, buttman wrote:

I'm not an economist, but it seems with the increase in demand for
alternatively fueled cars, (hybrids, hydrogen powered, etc), the
demand for fuel will go way down, bring the price down with it.
Additionally, once the auto industry completely converts to hydrogen
(or whatever fuel type comes out on top), that technology will trickle
into aircraft engines.

The real problem is that it will only get worse before it gets better.
Unless something unforeseen happens, the price will only go up for at
least a few more years until it starts dropping again. The real
question is will the hobby survive until energy prices drop back down?

That is what happened in the 70s. We decreased our demand, and the
price of oil eventually went down. The problem is, the world
situation is different now than it was back then. Now we have China
and India ramping up demand. Even if we significantly decrease our
demand, the worldwide demand for oil is only going to continue to go
up. And that means that the only way the price will ever go down is
if the supply goes up. As I understand it, right now the supply is
bottlenecked by the lack of refining capacity. The refineries are
running at nearly 100% capacity. And there doesn't seem to be much of
a push by the oil companies to build more refineries. Given the
increase in demand, I would think that will change.

By the way, take a look at this list. This is the list of countries
that supply oil to the United States, in descending order by oil
volume. If you count Algeria, there are only three Middle Eastern
countries on the list! Canada actually has more known reserves of oil
than Saudi Arabia. But the oil is in the form of oil shale, which is
more expensive to extract and refine.

Just a small nitpick, the Canadian non-conventional oil is in the form of
oil-sand / tar-sand. IIRC oil shale is located under Colorado and is
reported to contain more oil than the mid east or Canada. IIRC the Colorado
oil shale is deeper underground than the Canadian tar-sand but Canada is now
developing & using SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) to recover
deposits that are too deep for economical open pit extraction. I suspect
that this technology could be applied in Colorado if there was the will to
develop these deposits. IIRC tar-sand production cost is ~$60 and suspect
that Colorado oil shale woild be similar but YMMV. We can only speculate as
to the motives that prefer war to domestic development.

Anyway, the point I am really
making is there is still plenty of oil in the ground to satisfy
demand. The real problem is that there isn't enough refining
capacity.

1. Canada
2. Mexico
3. Saudi Arabia
4. Venezuela
5. Nigeria
6. Angola
7. Iraq
8. Algeria
9. United Kingdom
10. Brazil


Phil

JH, I know you dont like me responding to your posts but for the sake
of discussion I might add some perspective.

Thanks for that, Frank. I always appreciate your aviation-related posts.

Complaining about the cost of flying. Yes, everyone has always made a
hobby out of bitching about the high price of aviation -- but we've never
seen fuel costs soar so much in such a short period, especially not at a
time when wages are stagnant or declining.

I, too, will always fly, no matter the cost. (Remember, you're talking to a
guy who sold his plasma for flight time) But as fuel costs continue to
rise our flight time will diminish -- and at some level it will become
impossible to do much more than fly the pattern.

I just don't know what that level will be.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On Apr 6, 5:01*pm, "Private" wrote:

Just a small nitpick, the Canadian non-conventional oil is in the form of
oil-sand / tar-sand. *IIRC oil shale is located under Colorado and is
reported to contain more oil than the mid east or Canada. *IIRC the Colorado
oil shale is deeper underground than the Canadian tar-sand but Canada is now
developing & using SAGD (Steam Assisted Gravity Drainage) to recover
deposits that are too deep for economical open pit extraction. *I suspect
that this technology could be applied in Colorado if there was the will to
develop these deposits. *IIRC tar-sand production cost is ~$60 and suspect
that Colorado oil shale woild be similar but YMMV. *We can only speculate as
to the motives that prefer war to domestic development.

Interesting! I hadn't heard about the Colorado oil shale before. I
just did a little surfing and it sounds like it would require a lot of
water to extract this oil. There is concern that it would use all the
capacity of the Colorado river that is not currently allocated.

Personally I wish we had taken the money we have wasted on the war and
put it to work here at home for research into alternative energy
sources. Then it would have funded more American jobs, and maybe
contributed to a long-term sustainable energy plan. I would like to
see a serious, well-funded attempt to develop a working fusion
reactor, for example.

Phil

He mentioned that back then, any pretty weekend day, there was always 2-3
aircraft puttering around the strip, shooting landings or just enjoying.
While the number of aircraft hangered there was about the same (20-30),
the strip was pretty much dead by comparison. There was 2-3 guys in their
hangers working on their planes, there was not the sound of a single
engine.

My wife and I still fly a couple of times per week, and that's true
everywhere we go now. Places we used to always see/hear airplanes are
eerily quiet now.

It's weird -- supposedly Cirrus is selling all these new airplanes, but I
sure don't know where in hell they are flying. We flew to Florida and back
two weeks ago, and rarely saw/heard anything smaller than a King Air.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

On 2008-04-04 19:47:30 -0700, "Jay Honeck" said:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we
paid over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought
I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher
must gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?
Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur
in America?

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation,
even if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the
complaints louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on
an airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers
will simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free
year's fuel. Or more.

--
Waddling Eagle
World Famous Flight Instructor

IIRC tar-sand production cost is ~$60 and suspect that Colorado oil shale
woild be similar but YMMV. We can only speculate as to the motives that
prefer war to domestic development.

This is probably a topic for a different thread, but it does make you wonder
about the true motives of those who would see people suffer on an
unprecedented economic scale rather than develop our known oil reserves.
Bottom line: When gas hits eight bucks a gallon, you're going to see
economic pain on an unprecedented level.

An interesting question to ponder: At what price point do the masses rise up
and over-ride the environmentalist rules that currently restrict the
process?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"C J Campbell" wrote in message
news:2008040618011616807-christophercampbell@hotmailcom...
On 2008-04-04 19:47:30 -0700, "Jay Honeck"
said:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd
see.

What were you paying in the past? What % of your operating expense is gas?

Try $5.11 everyday (CYS).


That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?

If you use an airplane for business, you can't hang up the headphones. OTOH,
I'm expanding my business into the oil producing regions where the RE market
is still pretty good (though mortgages are harder to get).

Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in
America?

When it's too expensive to pursue as a HOBBY?

Considering that there are waiting lists for people to buy a Cessna 172
for nearly $300,000, almost double what one cost a couple years ago, I
doubt that the price of gas is going to have much effect on aviation, even
if it goes to $100/gallon. The only effect will be to make the complaints
louder.

The cost of gas is a pittance compared to whatever else people spend on an
airplane. If gas starts to hurt airplane sales, the manufacturers will
simply offer incentives like Cessna has done in the past -- a free year's
fuel. Or more.

Operating cost is early 2007 were $185 an hour and fuel for me was an
average of $3.78; now it's $5.11 - at 15GPH my new cost is $20 more an hour
($205). My TOTAL cost is 11% higher.

Fortunately, I can just adjust my margins to match and my tax accountant has
new numbers to work with.

Matt Barrow
Performance Homes, LLC
Cheyenne, WY

"Jay Honeck" wrote in
news:NteKj.55766$TT4.55642@attbi_s22:

IIRC tar-sand production cost is ~$60 and suspect that Colorado oil
shale woild be similar but YMMV. We can only speculate as to the
motives that prefer war to domestic development.

This is probably a topic for a different thread, but it does make you
wonder about the true motives of those who would see people suffer on
an unprecedented economic scale rather than develop our known oil
reserves. Bottom line: When gas hits eight bucks a gallon, you're
going to see economic pain on an unprecedented level.

An interesting question to ponder: At what price point do the masses
rise up and over-ride the environmentalist rules that currently
restrict the process?

You are a moron


Bertie