GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000

I looked at the Gasuse.xls charts and generally agree with it except
that I would not use year-to-date 2007 numbers since it is not a full
year (does not include summer flying months).

That may not affect the overall trend.

Plus It should bottom out above zero. I fly about 250 hours a year
and am not likely to drop to zero. The same applies to many RV pilots
as far as not going to zero.

That is a helpful chart. Thanks

Ron Lee

On Jun 7, 8:48 am, "RST Engineering" wrote:
The reason I did sheet/graph 3 was that prior to 1990, you still had a
goodly portion of the GA fleet burning piston juice. Just about this time,
the folks who were flying "for real" and sucking most of the gas (i.e.
corporate, air taxi, freight...) converted to the more efficient turbine
juice. I know that is when the local firebombers converted from the S2F
with the Pratt&Scat round piston engines to the S2T Garrett?? turboprop and
the spotters converted from the Skymasters to the OV-2. That in and of
itself cut GOO's piston juice usage in half.

It was purely an arbitrary decision but one based on reality.

Jim

--
"Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt, and
dance like no one is watching."
--Satchel Paige
"Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net wrote in ...



RST Engineering wrote:
Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the
spreadsheets will be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin
fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since
1990.
Jim

If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero
in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
trouble. What are we going to do about it?- Hide quoted text -

- Show quoted text -

So, it still begs the question of why the dropoff since 2000?
Economics? Fear of TFRs? Loss of older pilots? All of the above?

My bad. Looking at Sheet 1 your last data point was 2006. You
already used proper data analysis.

Ron Lee

I looked at the Gasuse.xls charts and generally agree with it except
that I would not use year-to-date 2007 numbers since it is not a full
year (does not include summer flying months).

wrote

So, it still begs the question of why the dropoff since 2000?
Economics? Fear of TFRs? Loss of older pilots? All of the above?

There are companies in business, all over the place, continuously converting
piston airplanes into turbine airplanes.

Most of them are big, thirsty piston engines, that will not be drinking
avgas any more.

How many piston singles would that represent, in equivalent gas consumption?
Dozens? Hundreds? Perhaps.

Add to that, the obvious slow decline of private pilots, and hours flown,
then kick in rising fuel costs, and it is starting to look like nails in the
coffin.
--
Jim in NC

"Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net wrote in message
...
RST Engineering wrote:
Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the
spreadsheets will be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in
fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since
1990.
Jim

If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero
in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
trouble. What are we going to do about it?
Talk.

"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at
zero in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in
trouble. What are we going to do about it?

Talk.

1) Would relaxing Part 135 restrictions help?
2) Would it be worth the resultant risk?



-c

gatt wrote:
"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been
at zero in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt
GA is in trouble. What are we going to do about it?

Talk.

1) Would relaxing Part 135 restrictions help?
2) Would it be worth the resultant risk?




Probably not x 2.

I didn't see Matt's original reply until this message but that actually is
the answer. People are spending lots of money on recreational activities.
Some how aviation needs to get a bigger piece of that pie.

"Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net wrote in message
...

I didn't see Matt's original reply until this message but that actually is
the answer. People are spending lots of money on recreational activities.

People who have lots of disposable income are spending lots of money on
recreational activities. Meanwhile, industries are slowly bleeding to
death.
Why won't anybody address that?


"The impact on our transportation industry has far reaching consequences.
The American Trucking Association already ".deeply concerned about the
impact of diesel price increases on the motor carrier industry and on our
national economy.", offers tips for saving on fuel as well as naming truck
stops providing the cheapest fuels, etc."
http://www.articlegold.com/Article/C...-Fuel-Costs/94

"According to the National Voice for the Marine Charter Industry, fuel
prices are "cutting into the 'already slim profit margins' of the nation's
40,000 charter boat operators.." IBID

"Jet fuel prices have risen about 15 percent in the past two weeks, taking
back more than half of a six-week decline after they hit their highest
levels ever. Some experts believe jet fuel prices - linked to crude oil -
will go higher as the year goes on. Fuel is typically the second-biggest
expense behind labor for an airline, and the year's inflation has seriously
dented the prospects of the large U.S. carriers, trying to recover from four
years of huge losses. As a result, airlines have been raising fares enough
to help offset the higher costs. Big carriers have raised fares nine times
this year, including a $5-$10 increase this week for one-way trips.
Industrywide, leisure travelers are seeing the largest fare increases,
according to Fulcrum Global Partners. In recent weeks, leisure fares have
been about 30 percent to 40 percent higher than year-ago levels, while
business fares have been down by about one-third. Heavy losses are expected
to continue this year, projected at more than $5.5 billion for the year by
Calyon Securities. "
http://www.tia.org/express/transport...hotissues.html

"The Australian Trucking Association says businesses should be prepared for
rising freight costs, as petrochemical industry insiders warn the price of
fuel could again be on the rise.
Association chairman Ross Fraser, from Fraser's Livestock Transport in
Warwick, says fuel bills at his company have increased by 30 per cent in the
last 10 months." http://www.abc.net.au/southqld/stories/s1465827.htm


"Single mom Esther Guzman is used to juggling her family finances. But
lately, it's gotten harder to make ends meet.The 38-year-old mother of
four's monthly gasoline bill has jumped to more than $300. Guzman, of
Monmouth Junction, N.J., makes $11 an hour helping others apply for
low-income energy aid, and receives $400 a month in child support. "
http://www.usatoday.com/money/econom...ome-usat_N.htm

I'll wager that the actual 2014 number will be higher than either of
your two predictions? Would you take that bet?



On Jun 6, 6:45 pm, "RST Engineering" wrote:
Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will
be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin fifteen minutes. Take a look
at the straightness of the line since 1990.

Jim