How much longer?

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

So the question is: How much higher must gas go up before *you* hang up
your headphones for the last time? Anyone care to predict what year the
last personal flights will occur in America?

No, there will always be some that have enough money, but the question is
more like, how long will it be until the number of active pilots is cut in
half, and then, half again?

The trend will be to see STC's to convert more and more engines to lower
compression cylinders and pistons, to allow engines to burn auto gas, I
think.

That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas. Also, the continuing trend to the small LSA
airframes, or the likes of them, perhaps not LSA, but the same size, and
faster.

Still, the classics will still fly, many only as show items, like classic
hot rods that only go out to go to shows.

I do fear, as you, that gas prices will continue to price more and more
people out of the ability to continue flying. I hope a solution to switch
nearly everything to a more affordable fuel is made available, and soon.
--
Jim in NC

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?

For me, the limit would be $10/gallon before I will stop long distance
flying, such as flying between Seattle to California. To stop local
fun flights - maybe $15-$20/gallon. And I use autofuel.

The worry though is when the price approaches $7-$8/gallon, so many
people would give up flying all together and we'll end up losing many
of our airports due to lack of use, and the remaining ones might not
have gasoline for sale due to low sales volume (JetA will likely still
be available in those places). That'll make long distance flying trip
less and less viable.

The problem is magnified by the fact that 100LL price will go
exponentially more expense as consumption continues to dwindle, due to
the need of a dedicated distribution infrastructure.

In article 6LBJj.53005$TT4.41626@attbi_s22,
"Jay Honeck" wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?

If I lose my mechanics and can no longer do owner-assisted maintenance,
then I'll probably sell my airplane (I own one partly because I love working
on it).

The price of gas is not likely to be the cause of my giving up on flying.
Stupid idiotic "security" requirements will more likely drive me away from
flying. The price of gas is simply not that significant to me. Of course,
my plane burns around 8 gph, or less if I run at 65% or thereabouts.

--
Bob Noel
(goodness, please trim replies!!!)

"Morgans" wrote in message
...

"Jay Honeck" wrote

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

So the question is: How much higher must gas go up before *you* hang up
your headphones for the last time? Anyone care to predict what year the
last personal flights will occur in America?

No, there will always be some that have enough money, but the question is
more like, how long will it be until the number of active pilots is cut in
half, and then, half again?

The trend will be to see STC's to convert more and more engines to lower
compression cylinders and pistons, to allow engines to burn auto gas, I
think.

That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas. Also, the continuing trend to the small LSA
airframes, or the likes of them, perhaps not LSA, but the same size, and
faster.

Still, the classics will still fly, many only as show items, like classic
hot rods that only go out to go to shows.

I do fear, as you, that gas prices will continue to price more and more
people out of the ability to continue flying. I hope a solution to switch
nearly everything to a more affordable fuel is made available, and soon.
--
Jim in NC

The fact is that, even though it does have me priced out for the moment,
this really is cyclical. The US dollar is currently depressed, which
contributes to the problem. In addition, for most of the past forty years,
crude oil has been the inflation leader--oil prices ratchet up and
eventually stabilize, and then the rest of the economy catches up. This
time, we had the housing bubble as well, so there are (at least) two highly
inflated segments for the rest of the economy to emulate.

I don't especially like it, and as the financial ads always say "past
performance is not a guarantee of future results"; but the past is still the
best indicator that we have available.

In other words, so long as tax rates are indexed for inflation, aviation
will be as affordable in a few years as it was a few years ago.

Peter
Just my $0.02

Jay Honeck wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we
paid $5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid
over $300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must
gas go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?
Anyone care to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in
America?

Republicans
Big oil
The Rich

The rest of us are eating ****

The turd is being molded by the Failed Aviation
Administration the Government agency who loves to suck big
business cock

Only the Rich will fly soon
Just like the 1930's
Only the rich

McSame will be 4 or 8 more years of the same ****
God Bless America

"BlowMe" wrote

Republicans
Big oil

Last I checked, the price of oil was set by the WORLD demand marketplace,
and to a lesser degree by OPEC production quotas.

It is mighty nice of you to think that the Republicans are powerful enough
to control the WORLD price of oil.

But you are probably too stupid to realize this FACT of life.

On Sat, 05 Apr 2008 02:47:30 GMT, "Jay Honeck"
wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Cheer up Jay, it won't be much longer and you'' be paying that for the
auto gas.

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

You should fly something with big gas tanks plus tip tanks.:-))

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?

Some are calling for complete independence from foreign oil within a
decade which we need to do. Think gas is expensive now? wait until we
are using renewable fuels.

Jay,

How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?


Just look at Cirrus's order book as one indication: Are people buying the
SR20, with an engine that consumes less fuel? Nope, they are buying the
SR22, with a gas guzzler. Ergo: No problem yet, in the good ole USofA.
Bigger is still better.

--
Thomas Borchert (EDDH)

On Apr 4, 8:47*pm, "Jay Honeck" wrote:
With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? * At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. *Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. *So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? * Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

I'm not an economist, but it seems with the increase in demand for
alternatively fueled cars, (hybrids, hydrogen powered, etc), the
demand for fuel will go way down, bring the price down with it.
Additionally, once the auto industry completely converts to hydrogen
(or whatever fuel type comes out on top), that technology will trickle
into aircraft engines.

The real problem is that it will only get worse before it gets better.
Unless something unforeseen happens, the price will only go up for at
least a few more years until it starts dropping again. The real
question is will the hobby survive until energy prices drop back down?