Gloom

Mary and I just returned from a wonderful weekend at the Cherokee
Pilots Association national fly-in, held annually in Osage Beach,
Missouri, at the Tan-Tar-A resort. We had a wonderful time, catching
up with old friends, and making new ones. We bought some cool stuff
from the vendors, gave away some hotel certificates to CPA members,
and I enjoyed a marvelous Father's Day flight home.

So why the gloom?

After four straight years of strong growth, attendance at this
fabulous fly-in took a sudden, breath-taking tumble. Some organizers
were saying it was down 35%, some were privately saying 40% -- but
there was no denying the fact that the airport was ready for FAR more
aircraft than showed up. There were many, many ready-but-empty tie
downs, and the dinner crowd was a shadow of prior years.

More alarmingly, there were NO Cherokee 140s to be judged for "Best
Cherokee 140" at the show. That is NOT a mis-print -- I really said
there were NONE. In prior years, Cherokee 140s have naturally made up
the vast majority of fly-in attendees (since they were built in the
greatest numbers), but this year not a single one (other than Art
Matson's highly modified AMR&D experimental 140) showed up.

Not a single one! It was absolutely scary.

Over dinner and drinks, those of us who did show up (and there were
over 75 Arrows, Archers, Pathfinders, Dakotas, Lances and Saratogas)
debated what had happened to the "entry level" Cherokees?

The general consensus, after too many gin & tonics, was that the entry-
level Cherokee owners were the owners who were barely able to afford
ownership in the first place, and have been most devastated by the
recent 25% increase in fuel costs. In other words, they were the
"canaries in the bird cage", and have died first and quickest, to
serve as a warning to us all...

Then, just as we had recovered from the shock of this stark
realization, we were "treated" to the keynote speaker at the fly-in,
the new CEO of Piper, James Bass. (Read more about him he
http://www.cherokeeflyin.com/html/keynote.html)

In his speech, Mr. Bass touted the fact that Piper had gone back to
its original name (no more "New Piper" nonsense), had returned to
profitability, and recovered from the three hurricanes that had
devastated their Vero Beach facilities. All good things, indeed, and
each announcement was met with enthusiastic applause.

Then things went downhill.

He went on to state that Piper would no longer be able to provide
parts support for "ancient" aircraft, and tossed out a "maximum" age
of 25 years. Of course, the room was packed with people flying planes
that were, on average, 30 years old -- so the room became silent at
this quasi-announcement. (No one is quite sure if he was really
"announcing" this change, or if he was just floating the idea...)

He also stated that Piper was not interested in licensing the rights
to build parts for older planes, because they would still be liable
for them -- and everything in their business was now dictated by
product liability.

Then Bass went on to spend half an hour trumpeting the new PiperJet,
which has supposedly already racked up 180 firm orders. With a whiz-
bang PowerPoint presentation, he went on to outline the features of
this $2+ million jet to a room full of Cherokee pilots -- all of whom
only wanted to hear about piston singles.

He then drove the stake in further by stating unequivocably that Piper
would NOT be entering the Light Sport market, thus confirming (to most
attendees) that Piper was on the verge of completely abandoning their
piston single line.

To say that this guy made no friends in Osage Beach would be an
understatement. Although no one was impolite, the post-speech
questions were quite pointed and blunt, and it was quite obvious that
no one was hearing what they had wanted to hear.

One guy in particular asked about building and supported piston
singles over wasting $100 million in company funds building a
vaporware jet, and Bass replied "So are you saying that we should
continue building piston singles at a loss, and go out of business?"
-- to which the questioner testily responded "No, you should build
piston singles that people want, at a PROFIT."

God almighty, folks, as if the writing wasn't on the wall enough, this
fly-in has proved to me that our beloved GA is teetering at the abyss.
I looked around the ballroom, at all these gray-haired old guys
wearing brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts, and
realized that I was possibly witnessing the end of an era. Between
"User Fees" on one side, fuel costs on the other, and an aging pilot
community, I don't know anymore what to think or do.

I sincerely hope the fly-in rebounds strongly next year, and that this
downturn is merely a momentary pause, before we see some explosive
growth in GA. I hope Oshkosh this year is bigger and better than
ever, and that everyone who isn't flying now will muster the will (and
the funds) to attend AirVenture. I pray that OSH doesn't suffer the
same kind of decline that we've seen at Sun N Fun and now the Cherokee
Pilots Association fly-in.

Mary and I will keep on keeping on, flying as often and as far as we
can, spreading the good word of aviation, and we will continue to
strive to create the ultimate fly-in destination at our aviation-
themed hotel -- but after this weekend I surely can't help but feel
like we're seeing the last days of "common-man" pilot/owners in
America...

Get out there and FLY, people!
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote:


He also stated that Piper was not interested in licensing the rights
to build parts for older planes, because they would still be liable
for them -- and everything in their business was now dictated by
product liability.

That, and recent rumblings about shops' declining to service 18-yr. old
aircraft convinced me to buy a nearly new 182 rather than a 15-yr. old
Bonanza.

Are we the last generation of light GA private flyers? It's starting to look
like it.


--
Dan
T-182T at BFM

"Jay Honeck" wrote in message
ups.com...
So why the gloom?

The general consensus, after too many gin & tonics, was that the entry-
level Cherokee owners were the owners who were barely able to afford
ownership in the first place, and have been most devastated by the
recent 25% increase in fuel costs. In other words, they were the
"canaries in the bird cage", and have died first and quickest, to
serve as a warning to us all...



God almighty, folks, as if the writing wasn't on the wall enough, this
fly-in has proved to me that our beloved GA is teetering at the abyss.
I looked around the ballroom, at all these gray-haired old guys
wearing brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts, and
realized that I was possibly witnessing the end of an era. Between
"User Fees" on one side, fuel costs on the other, and an aging pilot
community, I don't know anymore what to think or do.


Get out there and FLY, people!
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"


Jay, I'm one of those "gray-haired old guys" albeit, I don't wear the
"brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts." HAHA

Seriously, I am retired and I now live on what is affectionally called the
"fixed income". When I first started flying several years ago, I could
afford it without any problems. However, with the increase in fuel costs
raising the rental price on the C-172, I rent, I just can't fly as much now
as I want to. You may be right. We may becoming to the end of an era. Oh,
BTW, buying a C-172 for me is absolutely out of the financial equation.

I won't be flying in but, I'll be looking for you and the others at Oshkosh!

Best,

Harry
PP-ASEL
San Antonio, TX

I won't be flying in but, I'll be looking for you and the others at Oshkosh!

Good to hear, Harry -- I'm sure we'll have a cold one on ice for ya!

:-)
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

That, and recent rumblings about shops' declining to service 18-yr. old
aircraft convinced me to buy a nearly new 182 rather than a 15-yr. old
Bonanza.

Oh, I don't think we'll have to worry too much about spare parts for
planes like Cherokees and Bonanzas for a good, long time, even if
Piper and Beech bailed out. All you have to do is look at the
plethora of interior plastic suppliers to see what happens when the
OEMs price themselves too high in an area that everyone needs/
wants.

Still, it's truly disturbing to see that the CEO of Piper has done the
cold, hard math, and concluded that General Aviation is no longer
worth pursuing. If Bass is really as smart as everyone says he is
(and his reputation at Sony and General Electric is pristine), we're
in for a long, hard road.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

Jay, it's not technically a Piper, but you ought to check out the new
SportCruiser we rent and sell:

http://www.chesapeakesportpilot.com/sales.htm
http://www.chesapeakesportpilot.com/

This plane is what Piper would have come up with if they had entered the
light sport market. It is seriously roomy, fast, quiet, and burns just
3gph with Piper handing and custom panel. We're renting it at $85/h
factory new.

IMHO, Piper is foolish for not going into this market. We've had our
school open for just under two months and are picking up students from 4
states at a rate of a half dozen a week. We are struggling to add
planes and instructors fast enough to keep up with the demand. We've
had the SportCruiser for a matter of weeks and already it is booking up
solid.

Piper's future in piston GA may be doomed, but certainly GA itself. The
LSA market will see to that.

Helen


Jay Honeck wrote:
Mary and I just returned from a wonderful weekend at the Cherokee
Pilots Association national fly-in, held annually in Osage Beach,
Missouri, at the Tan-Tar-A resort. We had a wonderful time, catching
up with old friends, and making new ones. We bought some cool stuff
from the vendors, gave away some hotel certificates to CPA members,
and I enjoyed a marvelous Father's Day flight home.

So why the gloom?

After four straight years of strong growth, attendance at this
fabulous fly-in took a sudden, breath-taking tumble. Some organizers
were saying it was down 35%, some were privately saying 40% -- but
there was no denying the fact that the airport was ready for FAR more
aircraft than showed up. There were many, many ready-but-empty tie
downs, and the dinner crowd was a shadow of prior years.

More alarmingly, there were NO Cherokee 140s to be judged for "Best
Cherokee 140" at the show. That is NOT a mis-print -- I really said
there were NONE. In prior years, Cherokee 140s have naturally made up
the vast majority of fly-in attendees (since they were built in the
greatest numbers), but this year not a single one (other than Art
Matson's highly modified AMR&D experimental 140) showed up.

Not a single one! It was absolutely scary.

Over dinner and drinks, those of us who did show up (and there were
over 75 Arrows, Archers, Pathfinders, Dakotas, Lances and Saratogas)
debated what had happened to the "entry level" Cherokees?

The general consensus, after too many gin & tonics, was that the entry-
level Cherokee owners were the owners who were barely able to afford
ownership in the first place, and have been most devastated by the
recent 25% increase in fuel costs. In other words, they were the
"canaries in the bird cage", and have died first and quickest, to
serve as a warning to us all...

Then, just as we had recovered from the shock of this stark
realization, we were "treated" to the keynote speaker at the fly-in,
the new CEO of Piper, James Bass. (Read more about him he
http://www.cherokeeflyin.com/html/keynote.html)

In his speech, Mr. Bass touted the fact that Piper had gone back to
its original name (no more "New Piper" nonsense), had returned to
profitability, and recovered from the three hurricanes that had
devastated their Vero Beach facilities. All good things, indeed, and
each announcement was met with enthusiastic applause.

Then things went downhill.

He went on to state that Piper would no longer be able to provide
parts support for "ancient" aircraft, and tossed out a "maximum" age
of 25 years. Of course, the room was packed with people flying planes
that were, on average, 30 years old -- so the room became silent at
this quasi-announcement. (No one is quite sure if he was really
"announcing" this change, or if he was just floating the idea...)

He also stated that Piper was not interested in licensing the rights
to build parts for older planes, because they would still be liable
for them -- and everything in their business was now dictated by
product liability.

Then Bass went on to spend half an hour trumpeting the new PiperJet,
which has supposedly already racked up 180 firm orders. With a whiz-
bang PowerPoint presentation, he went on to outline the features of
this $2+ million jet to a room full of Cherokee pilots -- all of whom
only wanted to hear about piston singles.

He then drove the stake in further by stating unequivocably that Piper
would NOT be entering the Light Sport market, thus confirming (to most
attendees) that Piper was on the verge of completely abandoning their
piston single line.

To say that this guy made no friends in Osage Beach would be an
understatement. Although no one was impolite, the post-speech
questions were quite pointed and blunt, and it was quite obvious that
no one was hearing what they had wanted to hear.

One guy in particular asked about building and supported piston
singles over wasting $100 million in company funds building a
vaporware jet, and Bass replied "So are you saying that we should
continue building piston singles at a loss, and go out of business?"
-- to which the questioner testily responded "No, you should build
piston singles that people want, at a PROFIT."

God almighty, folks, as if the writing wasn't on the wall enough, this
fly-in has proved to me that our beloved GA is teetering at the abyss.
I looked around the ballroom, at all these gray-haired old guys
wearing brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts, and
realized that I was possibly witnessing the end of an era. Between
"User Fees" on one side, fuel costs on the other, and an aging pilot
community, I don't know anymore what to think or do.

I sincerely hope the fly-in rebounds strongly next year, and that this
downturn is merely a momentary pause, before we see some explosive
growth in GA. I hope Oshkosh this year is bigger and better than
ever, and that everyone who isn't flying now will muster the will (and
the funds) to attend AirVenture. I pray that OSH doesn't suffer the
same kind of decline that we've seen at Sun N Fun and now the Cherokee
Pilots Association fly-in.

Mary and I will keep on keeping on, flying as often and as far as we
can, spreading the good word of aviation, and we will continue to
strive to create the ultimate fly-in destination at our aviation-
themed hotel -- but after this weekend I surely can't help but feel
like we're seeing the last days of "common-man" pilot/owners in
America...

Get out there and FLY, people!
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote:

Still, it's truly disturbing to see that the CEO of Piper has done the
cold, hard math, and concluded that General Aviation is no longer
worth pursuing. If Bass is really as smart as everyone says he is
(and his reputation at Sony and General Electric is pristine), we're
in for a long, hard road.


F*** him.

I'm going to keep flying until they pry my cold, dead etc...

--
Dan
T-182T at BFM

As I mentioned to my A&P this afternoon, GA has one foot in the grave
and the other on ice. Remember the fuel chart showing 100LL
deliveries with a steady decline over the last decade or so? We
supposedly have over 400 aircraft at my field and there were about 150
ops today, with 84 of those from 42 T&Gs.

If the FAA gets their way with user fees and higher fuel taxes, the
other foot is gone.

Ron Lee

IMHO, Piper is foolish for not going into this market.

Agree 100%. They claim there is "no margin" in LSA aircraft, but I
don't believe it.

We've had our
school open for just under two months and are picking up students from 4
states at a rate of a half dozen a week.

Contrast this with our local FBO's attitude toward Light Sport:

We recently had a guest who was interested in pursuing his dream of
flying, and wanted to go Light Sport. I told him that I'd see if I
could find an LSA instructor and aircraft in which he could train.

My first call was naturally to our local FBO, whose response was blunt
and telling: "We don't mess with that ****."

Our FBO, like so many others, only provides flight training because
it's a requirement of their contract with the city. In the absence of
that contract, they would close their flight school in a heartbeat,
preferring to cater to the King Air and Citation crowd...

Our guest found an instructor and aircraft at a smaller, nearby
airport, so the story doesn't end entirely sadly. But it's just SO
frustrating to see the skies over Iowa City slowly becoming empty
thanks to people in the industry who simply don't understand that
without an active, proactive interest in flight training EVERYTHING
stops in about ten years.
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

He went on to state that Piper would no longer be able to provide
parts support for "ancient" aircraft, and tossed out a "maximum" age
of 25 years.

That's a familiar number. Isn't that the age at which liability ends,
or somesuch?

everything in their business was now dictated by
product liability.

There you go.

Mary and I will keep on keeping on, flying as often and as far as we
can, spreading the good word of aviation

How much flying would you be doing if you could not write off any of it?

Jose
--
You can choose whom to befriend, but you cannot choose whom to love.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.