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#1
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Gloom
Mary and I just returned from a wonderful weekend at the Cherokee
Pilots Association national fly-in, held annually in Osage Beach, Missouri, at the Tan-Tar-A resort. We had a wonderful time, catching up with old friends, and making new ones. We bought some cool stuff from the vendors, gave away some hotel certificates to CPA members, and I enjoyed a marvelous Father's Day flight home. So why the gloom? After four straight years of strong growth, attendance at this fabulous fly-in took a sudden, breath-taking tumble. Some organizers were saying it was down 35%, some were privately saying 40% -- but there was no denying the fact that the airport was ready for FAR more aircraft than showed up. There were many, many ready-but-empty tie downs, and the dinner crowd was a shadow of prior years. More alarmingly, there were NO Cherokee 140s to be judged for "Best Cherokee 140" at the show. That is NOT a mis-print -- I really said there were NONE. In prior years, Cherokee 140s have naturally made up the vast majority of fly-in attendees (since they were built in the greatest numbers), but this year not a single one (other than Art Matson's highly modified AMR&D experimental 140) showed up. Not a single one! It was absolutely scary. Over dinner and drinks, those of us who did show up (and there were over 75 Arrows, Archers, Pathfinders, Dakotas, Lances and Saratogas) debated what had happened to the "entry level" Cherokees? The general consensus, after too many gin & tonics, was that the entry- level Cherokee owners were the owners who were barely able to afford ownership in the first place, and have been most devastated by the recent 25% increase in fuel costs. In other words, they were the "canaries in the bird cage", and have died first and quickest, to serve as a warning to us all... Then, just as we had recovered from the shock of this stark realization, we were "treated" to the keynote speaker at the fly-in, the new CEO of Piper, James Bass. (Read more about him he http://www.cherokeeflyin.com/html/keynote.html) In his speech, Mr. Bass touted the fact that Piper had gone back to its original name (no more "New Piper" nonsense), had returned to profitability, and recovered from the three hurricanes that had devastated their Vero Beach facilities. All good things, indeed, and each announcement was met with enthusiastic applause. Then things went downhill. He went on to state that Piper would no longer be able to provide parts support for "ancient" aircraft, and tossed out a "maximum" age of 25 years. Of course, the room was packed with people flying planes that were, on average, 30 years old -- so the room became silent at this quasi-announcement. (No one is quite sure if he was really "announcing" this change, or if he was just floating the idea...) He also stated that Piper was not interested in licensing the rights to build parts for older planes, because they would still be liable for them -- and everything in their business was now dictated by product liability. Then Bass went on to spend half an hour trumpeting the new PiperJet, which has supposedly already racked up 180 firm orders. With a whiz- bang PowerPoint presentation, he went on to outline the features of this $2+ million jet to a room full of Cherokee pilots -- all of whom only wanted to hear about piston singles. He then drove the stake in further by stating unequivocably that Piper would NOT be entering the Light Sport market, thus confirming (to most attendees) that Piper was on the verge of completely abandoning their piston single line. To say that this guy made no friends in Osage Beach would be an understatement. Although no one was impolite, the post-speech questions were quite pointed and blunt, and it was quite obvious that no one was hearing what they had wanted to hear. One guy in particular asked about building and supported piston singles over wasting $100 million in company funds building a vaporware jet, and Bass replied "So are you saying that we should continue building piston singles at a loss, and go out of business?" -- to which the questioner testily responded "No, you should build piston singles that people want, at a PROFIT." God almighty, folks, as if the writing wasn't on the wall enough, this fly-in has proved to me that our beloved GA is teetering at the abyss. I looked around the ballroom, at all these gray-haired old guys wearing brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts, and realized that I was possibly witnessing the end of an era. Between "User Fees" on one side, fuel costs on the other, and an aging pilot community, I don't know anymore what to think or do. I sincerely hope the fly-in rebounds strongly next year, and that this downturn is merely a momentary pause, before we see some explosive growth in GA. I hope Oshkosh this year is bigger and better than ever, and that everyone who isn't flying now will muster the will (and the funds) to attend AirVenture. I pray that OSH doesn't suffer the same kind of decline that we've seen at Sun N Fun and now the Cherokee Pilots Association fly-in. Mary and I will keep on keeping on, flying as often and as far as we can, spreading the good word of aviation, and we will continue to strive to create the ultimate fly-in destination at our aviation- themed hotel -- but after this weekend I surely can't help but feel like we're seeing the last days of "common-man" pilot/owners in America... Get out there and FLY, people! -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#2
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Gloom
"Jay Honeck" wrote: He also stated that Piper was not interested in licensing the rights to build parts for older planes, because they would still be liable for them -- and everything in their business was now dictated by product liability. That, and recent rumblings about shops' declining to service 18-yr. old aircraft convinced me to buy a nearly new 182 rather than a 15-yr. old Bonanza. Are we the last generation of light GA private flyers? It's starting to look like it. -- Dan T-182T at BFM |
#3
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Gloom
"Jay Honeck" wrote in message ups.com... So why the gloom? The general consensus, after too many gin & tonics, was that the entry- level Cherokee owners were the owners who were barely able to afford ownership in the first place, and have been most devastated by the recent 25% increase in fuel costs. In other words, they were the "canaries in the bird cage", and have died first and quickest, to serve as a warning to us all... God almighty, folks, as if the writing wasn't on the wall enough, this fly-in has proved to me that our beloved GA is teetering at the abyss. I looked around the ballroom, at all these gray-haired old guys wearing brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts, and realized that I was possibly witnessing the end of an era. Between "User Fees" on one side, fuel costs on the other, and an aging pilot community, I don't know anymore what to think or do. Get out there and FLY, people! -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" Jay, I'm one of those "gray-haired old guys" albeit, I don't wear the "brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts." HAHA Seriously, I am retired and I now live on what is affectionally called the "fixed income". When I first started flying several years ago, I could afford it without any problems. However, with the increase in fuel costs raising the rental price on the C-172, I rent, I just can't fly as much now as I want to. You may be right. We may becoming to the end of an era. Oh, BTW, buying a C-172 for me is absolutely out of the financial equation. I won't be flying in but, I'll be looking for you and the others at Oshkosh! Best, Harry PP-ASEL San Antonio, TX |
#4
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Gloom
I won't be flying in but, I'll be looking for you and the others at Oshkosh!
Good to hear, Harry -- I'm sure we'll have a cold one on ice for ya! :-) -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#5
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Gloom
That, and recent rumblings about shops' declining to service 18-yr. old
aircraft convinced me to buy a nearly new 182 rather than a 15-yr. old Bonanza. Oh, I don't think we'll have to worry too much about spare parts for planes like Cherokees and Bonanzas for a good, long time, even if Piper and Beech bailed out. All you have to do is look at the plethora of interior plastic suppliers to see what happens when the OEMs price themselves too high in an area that everyone needs/ wants. Still, it's truly disturbing to see that the CEO of Piper has done the cold, hard math, and concluded that General Aviation is no longer worth pursuing. If Bass is really as smart as everyone says he is (and his reputation at Sony and General Electric is pristine), we're in for a long, hard road. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#6
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Gloom
Jay, it's not technically a Piper, but you ought to check out the new
SportCruiser we rent and sell: http://www.chesapeakesportpilot.com/sales.htm http://www.chesapeakesportpilot.com/ This plane is what Piper would have come up with if they had entered the light sport market. It is seriously roomy, fast, quiet, and burns just 3gph with Piper handing and custom panel. We're renting it at $85/h factory new. IMHO, Piper is foolish for not going into this market. We've had our school open for just under two months and are picking up students from 4 states at a rate of a half dozen a week. We are struggling to add planes and instructors fast enough to keep up with the demand. We've had the SportCruiser for a matter of weeks and already it is booking up solid. Piper's future in piston GA may be doomed, but certainly GA itself. The LSA market will see to that. Helen Jay Honeck wrote: Mary and I just returned from a wonderful weekend at the Cherokee Pilots Association national fly-in, held annually in Osage Beach, Missouri, at the Tan-Tar-A resort. We had a wonderful time, catching up with old friends, and making new ones. We bought some cool stuff from the vendors, gave away some hotel certificates to CPA members, and I enjoyed a marvelous Father's Day flight home. So why the gloom? After four straight years of strong growth, attendance at this fabulous fly-in took a sudden, breath-taking tumble. Some organizers were saying it was down 35%, some were privately saying 40% -- but there was no denying the fact that the airport was ready for FAR more aircraft than showed up. There were many, many ready-but-empty tie downs, and the dinner crowd was a shadow of prior years. More alarmingly, there were NO Cherokee 140s to be judged for "Best Cherokee 140" at the show. That is NOT a mis-print -- I really said there were NONE. In prior years, Cherokee 140s have naturally made up the vast majority of fly-in attendees (since they were built in the greatest numbers), but this year not a single one (other than Art Matson's highly modified AMR&D experimental 140) showed up. Not a single one! It was absolutely scary. Over dinner and drinks, those of us who did show up (and there were over 75 Arrows, Archers, Pathfinders, Dakotas, Lances and Saratogas) debated what had happened to the "entry level" Cherokees? The general consensus, after too many gin & tonics, was that the entry- level Cherokee owners were the owners who were barely able to afford ownership in the first place, and have been most devastated by the recent 25% increase in fuel costs. In other words, they were the "canaries in the bird cage", and have died first and quickest, to serve as a warning to us all... Then, just as we had recovered from the shock of this stark realization, we were "treated" to the keynote speaker at the fly-in, the new CEO of Piper, James Bass. (Read more about him he http://www.cherokeeflyin.com/html/keynote.html) In his speech, Mr. Bass touted the fact that Piper had gone back to its original name (no more "New Piper" nonsense), had returned to profitability, and recovered from the three hurricanes that had devastated their Vero Beach facilities. All good things, indeed, and each announcement was met with enthusiastic applause. Then things went downhill. He went on to state that Piper would no longer be able to provide parts support for "ancient" aircraft, and tossed out a "maximum" age of 25 years. Of course, the room was packed with people flying planes that were, on average, 30 years old -- so the room became silent at this quasi-announcement. (No one is quite sure if he was really "announcing" this change, or if he was just floating the idea...) He also stated that Piper was not interested in licensing the rights to build parts for older planes, because they would still be liable for them -- and everything in their business was now dictated by product liability. Then Bass went on to spend half an hour trumpeting the new PiperJet, which has supposedly already racked up 180 firm orders. With a whiz- bang PowerPoint presentation, he went on to outline the features of this $2+ million jet to a room full of Cherokee pilots -- all of whom only wanted to hear about piston singles. He then drove the stake in further by stating unequivocably that Piper would NOT be entering the Light Sport market, thus confirming (to most attendees) that Piper was on the verge of completely abandoning their piston single line. To say that this guy made no friends in Osage Beach would be an understatement. Although no one was impolite, the post-speech questions were quite pointed and blunt, and it was quite obvious that no one was hearing what they had wanted to hear. One guy in particular asked about building and supported piston singles over wasting $100 million in company funds building a vaporware jet, and Bass replied "So are you saying that we should continue building piston singles at a loss, and go out of business?" -- to which the questioner testily responded "No, you should build piston singles that people want, at a PROFIT." God almighty, folks, as if the writing wasn't on the wall enough, this fly-in has proved to me that our beloved GA is teetering at the abyss. I looked around the ballroom, at all these gray-haired old guys wearing brightly-colored, aviation themed Hawaiian shirts, and realized that I was possibly witnessing the end of an era. Between "User Fees" on one side, fuel costs on the other, and an aging pilot community, I don't know anymore what to think or do. I sincerely hope the fly-in rebounds strongly next year, and that this downturn is merely a momentary pause, before we see some explosive growth in GA. I hope Oshkosh this year is bigger and better than ever, and that everyone who isn't flying now will muster the will (and the funds) to attend AirVenture. I pray that OSH doesn't suffer the same kind of decline that we've seen at Sun N Fun and now the Cherokee Pilots Association fly-in. Mary and I will keep on keeping on, flying as often and as far as we can, spreading the good word of aviation, and we will continue to strive to create the ultimate fly-in destination at our aviation- themed hotel -- but after this weekend I surely can't help but feel like we're seeing the last days of "common-man" pilot/owners in America... Get out there and FLY, people! -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#7
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Gloom
"Jay Honeck" wrote: Still, it's truly disturbing to see that the CEO of Piper has done the cold, hard math, and concluded that General Aviation is no longer worth pursuing. If Bass is really as smart as everyone says he is (and his reputation at Sony and General Electric is pristine), we're in for a long, hard road. F*** him. I'm going to keep flying until they pry my cold, dead etc... -- Dan T-182T at BFM |
#8
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Gloom
As I mentioned to my A&P this afternoon, GA has one foot in the grave
and the other on ice. Remember the fuel chart showing 100LL deliveries with a steady decline over the last decade or so? We supposedly have over 400 aircraft at my field and there were about 150 ops today, with 84 of those from 42 T&Gs. If the FAA gets their way with user fees and higher fuel taxes, the other foot is gone. Ron Lee |
#9
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Gloom
IMHO, Piper is foolish for not going into this market.
Agree 100%. They claim there is "no margin" in LSA aircraft, but I don't believe it. We've had our school open for just under two months and are picking up students from 4 states at a rate of a half dozen a week. Contrast this with our local FBO's attitude toward Light Sport: We recently had a guest who was interested in pursuing his dream of flying, and wanted to go Light Sport. I told him that I'd see if I could find an LSA instructor and aircraft in which he could train. My first call was naturally to our local FBO, whose response was blunt and telling: "We don't mess with that ****." Our FBO, like so many others, only provides flight training because it's a requirement of their contract with the city. In the absence of that contract, they would close their flight school in a heartbeat, preferring to cater to the King Air and Citation crowd... Our guest found an instructor and aircraft at a smaller, nearby airport, so the story doesn't end entirely sadly. But it's just SO frustrating to see the skies over Iowa City slowly becoming empty thanks to people in the industry who simply don't understand that without an active, proactive interest in flight training EVERYTHING stops in about ten years. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993 www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" |
#10
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Gloom
He went on to state that Piper would no longer be able to provide
parts support for "ancient" aircraft, and tossed out a "maximum" age of 25 years. That's a familiar number. Isn't that the age at which liability ends, or somesuch? everything in their business was now dictated by product liability. There you go. Mary and I will keep on keeping on, flying as often and as far as we can, spreading the good word of aviation How much flying would you be doing if you could not write off any of it? Jose -- You can choose whom to befriend, but you cannot choose whom to love. for Email, make the obvious change in the address. |
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