Single-Seat Accident Records (Was BD-5B)

Interesting

I have been looking for such figures for quite a while. Thanks Ron.

14 year period -
Accidents Fatals
All Homebuilts 11.1% 3.2%
Fly Baby 5.7% 1.9%
BD-5 27.2% 11.1%
RV-3 8.2% 2.9%

or roughly 0.25% chance per year (one in 400).

So, let's put this in perspective - there were a little more than 58,000
deaths in Vietnam in seven years. There were a total of about 2.8 million
troops sent, mostly for 1 year tours, so an individual's odds were about
58,000/2,800,000=.02, or about 2%.that you'd be one of the lucky ones.

So, we are subjecting ourselves to an activity that is around one eighth as
dangerous as being a soldier in Vietnam. But WE don't get to rotate home- so
if we continue this for 8 years, our chances of death are the same as if we
had spent a year in 'Nam.

Hmmm...

On Sun, 16 Nov 2003 17:29:40 -0900, "Ron Webb"
wrote:


So, let's put this in perspective - there were a little more than 58,000
deaths in Vietnam in seven years. There were a total of about 2.8 million
troops sent, mostly for 1 year tours, so an individual's odds were about
58,000/2,800,000=.02, or about 2%.that you'd be one of the lucky ones.

So, we are subjecting ourselves to an activity that is around one eighth as
dangerous as being a soldier in Vietnam. But WE don't get to rotate home- so
if we continue this for 8 years, our chances of death are the same as if we
had spent a year in 'Nam.

True...but there are some mitigating factors, here.

The 2% chance of being a casualty was an overall rate. But your odds of
survival in Vietnam depended on whether you were a boonie rat or a
straphanger. Yes, there was a risk being a clerk in Saigon, but you
probably never came near that 2%.

The similar odds are there in flying, as well. If you don't make a habit
of pressing your fuel or scud-running, you're going to beat those overall
odds.

As I've mentioned, I'm doing a more in-depth study on homebuilt accidents
for a KITPLANES article. I don't want to "ruin my thunder" before the
article comes out. But: If you *don't* buzz or do low-level acrobatics,
your chance of being killed in a homebuilt just dropped by about 20%.

Ron Wanttaja

The similar odds are there in flying, as well. If you don't make a habit
of pressing your fuel or scud-running, you're going to beat those overall
odds.


Ron Wanttaja
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

How about pressing your luck with ALTENATIVE engine combos?
Got any meaningful data/stats other than BD-5?


Lucky Barnyard BOb -- on fire with full tanks in IMC

On Mon, 17 Nov 2003 03:28:07 GMT, Ron Wanttaja
wrote:

The similar odds are there in flying, as well. If you don't make a habit
of pressing your fuel or scud-running, you're going to beat those overall
odds.
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

Oops.

How about pressing your luck with ALTERNATIVE engine combos?
Got any meaningful data/stats other than BD-5?


Lucky Barnyard BOb -- on fire with full tanks in IMC

On Sun, 16 Nov 2003 23:11:09 -0600, - Barnyard BOb - wrote:

How about pressing your luck with ALTERNATIVE engine combos?
Got any meaningful data/stats other than BD-5?

In my 2000 database, about 2300 homebuilts are listed as having "AMA/EXPR"
engines. In that year, I show 8 auto-engine powered homebuilts had
accidents. That would be a rate of 0.3%, about a third of the overall
homebuilt rate.

But...we don't know what those "AMA/EXPR" engines actually were. Most were
probably regular 'ol Lycosaurs.

In addition, about 1700 homebuilts were registered with Ford, Chevrolet,
Volkswagen, Mazda, or Subaru engines. If *none* of those "AMA/EXPR"
engines were converted auto engines (which seems unlikely) the auto-engine
accident rate would have been 0.47%, still less than half the homebuilt
rate.

But how accurate is that 8 number for auto-engine-powered accidents in
2000? The NTSB doesn't always say what the engine type is. With a
baseline of only eight accidents one or two additional makes a tremendous
difference.

Looking at the 1990-2003 period, we find 22 accidents where "Subaru" is
mentioned (we'll assume they all refer to an engine installed in the
aircraft, and not the type of car they hit on a forced landing). We'll use
the number of Subaru-powered airplanes in 2003 (429) to compare the results
to the overall homebuilt fleet, the Fly Babies, the BD-5s, and the RV-3s.
Again, this table divides the number of aircraft of accident aircraft
during the 1990-2003 period and divides it by the number of aircraft of
that type registered in January 2003. It's useful for relative
comparisons, but, of course, isn't accurate in an absolute sense.

Accident Rate (total over 14 years)
All Homebuilts 11.1%
Fly Baby 5.7%
BD-5 27.2%
RV-3 8.2%
Subaru-powered 5.1%

By these results, Subaru-powered aircraft had an accident rate less than
half that of the total fleet. But this doesn't include those accidents
where the NTSB online report does not mention the use of a Subaru engine.

Ron Wanttaja

Looking at the 1990-2003 period, we find 22 accidents where "Subaru" is
mentioned (we'll assume they all refer to an engine installed in the
aircraft, and not the type of car they hit on a forced landing). We'll use
the number of Subaru-powered airplanes in 2003 (429) to compare the results
to the overall homebuilt fleet, the Fly Babies, the BD-5s, and the RV-3s.
Again, this table divides the number of aircraft of accident aircraft
during the 1990-2003 period and divides it by the number of aircraft of
that type registered in January 2003. It's useful for relative
comparisons, but, of course, isn't accurate in an absolute sense.

Accident Rate (total over 14 years)
All Homebuilts 11.1%
Fly Baby 5.7%
BD-5 27.2%
RV-3 8.2%
Subaru-powered 5.1%

By these results, Subaru-powered aircraft had an accident rate less than
half that of the total fleet. But this doesn't include those accidents
where the NTSB online report does not mention the use of a Subaru engine.

Ron Wanttaja
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++

For me...
Without knowing the number of flight hours involved,
accurate safety details and analysis are destined
to remain shrouded in much fog, mystery and hype.

However, I can see those with an agenda abusing
the incomplete data to bolster a particular point of view.

Including me.

Fer instance -
I picture an average RV3 flying mega-more hours a year than
any BD-5 whizzing around in little circles because of reliability
issues and no x-country capability. Ditto for my trusty Fly Baby.

My open cockpit Fly Baby flew very little compared to my RV3.
Conditions too damn harsh much of the New England year.
Which makes me believe that damn few Fly Babies or BD-5s
have much potential to crash due to adverse weather or even
less likely....doing sport aerobatics. g

I've flown in light snow with my RV-3 wearing nothing more than
a hawaiian short sleeved shirt and a smile. The speed, comfort
and economy makes it a helluva practical x-country machine...
and exposed greatly to the hazards of flying missions that the
BD-5 and Fly Baby are unlikely to be subjected to very often,
if at all.

YMMV.


Barnyard BOb -- garbage in = garbage out

So did your data lead you to any conclusions?

The one I'm getting is:
Don't fly an airplane with a high stall speed and unreliable power configuration.