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#1
June 5th 07, 10:15 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
Just look at the drops of avgas consumption:
http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful. I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas -- not any more... If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" Jay, Wow, from 1990 to 2000 the consumption dropped by only 20%. From 2000 to 2006 it dropped by 47% (nearly cut in half). Note the big drop in 2004 when lots of layoffs were occuring in high tech... By comparison, Jet-A has been pretty stable, and the growth in Jet-A doesn't appear to making up for the drop in 100LL, and in fact Jet-A use has declined in the past 4 years when the drop in 100LL was substantial. I'd say this is strong evidence that piston flying hours are way down... Boy, those user fees are really going to help fund the airspace system with all that GA traffic out there! (not) Dean 
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#2
June 6th 07, 11:01 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote:
Just look at the drops of avgas consumption: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful. I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas -- not any more... If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination" Jay, Wow, from 1990 to 2000 the consumption dropped by only 20%. From 2000 to 2006 it dropped by 47% (nearly cut in half). Note the big drop in 2004 when lots of layoffs were occuring in high tech... By comparison, Jet-A has been pretty stable, and the growth in Jet-A doesn't appear to making up for the drop in 100LL, and in fact Jet-A use has declined in the past 4 years when the drop in 100LL was substantial. I'd say this is strong evidence that piston flying hours are way down... Boy, those user fees are really going to help fund the airspace system with all that GA traffic out there! (not) Dean I was just scheduling one of the club airplanes that I fly, and I was surprised to see how few reservations there were in the system. The Archer I am flying this Saturday was wide open for the entire weekend, and I am the only person flying it since last Tuesday! It used to be that there were at least 4 flights a weekend scheduled for each of the Archers. I checked the schedules for all the planes, and the activity level is WAY down on all the planes from what it typically has been as recently as a year ago... I guess the higher rates from higher fuel prices are having a big effect.
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#3
June 6th 07, 11:07 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear
regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business around 2015, plus or minus one year. Jim -- There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who count in binary and those who don't wrote in message ups.com... On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote: Just look at the drops of avgas consumption: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful. I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas -- not any more... If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination"
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#4
June 6th 07, 11:14 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt)
would provide a closer model. Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it? Some nits need picking! On Jun 6, 6:07 pm, "RST Engineering" wrote: I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business around 2015, plus or minus one year. Jim -- There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who count in binary and those who wrote in message ups.com... On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote: Just look at the drops of avgas consumption: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful. I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas -- not any more... If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination"- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text -
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#5
June 6th 07, 11:37 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
Which symbol in your equation represents (+ -) changing political winds?
Montblack ("Tony" wrote) It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt) would provide a closer model. Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it? Some nits need picking!
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#6
June 6th 07, 11:45 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will
be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since 1990. Jim -- There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who count in binary and those who don't "Tony" wrote in message ups.com... It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt) would provide a closer model. Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it? Some nits need picking! On Jun 6, 6:07 pm, "RST Engineering" wrote: I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business around 2015, plus or minus one year. Jim -- There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who count in binary and those who wrote in message ups.com... On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote: Just look at the drops of avgas consumption: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful. I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas -- not any more... If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination"- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text -
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#7
June 6th 07, 11:50 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
Negative GA in 2020. QED
On Jun 6, 6:45 pm, "RST Engineering" wrote: Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since 1990. Jim -- There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who count in binary and those who don't"Tony" wrote in message ups.com... It's not likely it's a linear relationship, Jim. probably some e^(-kt) would provide a closer model. Yours would predict negative GA, in 2020, wouldn't it? Some nits need picking! On Jun 6, 6:07 pm, "RST Engineering" wrote: I just did a spreadsheet with a prediction routine based on linear regression. If the numbers hold true, we will be out of the GA business around 2015, plus or minus one year. Jim -- There are only 10 kinds of people in the world. Those who count in binary and those who wrote in message roups.com... On Jun 5, 3:15 pm, wrote: Just look at the drops of avgas consumption: http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/dnav/pet/hist/a403600001m.htm Oh, my God. That is incredible. And awful. I wonder if those sales figures from the 1980s included military aircraft? There used to be lots of military hardware burning avgas -- not any more... If not? Holy moley...GA really is dead. -- Jay Honeck Iowa City, IA Pathfinder N56993www.AlexisParkInn.com "Your Aviation Destination"- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text -- Hide quoted text - - Show quoted text -
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#8
June 7th 07, 12:25 AM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
On Jun 6, 3:45 pm, "RST Engineering" wrote:
Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will be posted towww.rstengineering.com/photosin fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since 1990. Jim Jim, I agree that it looks pretty linear, which is scary. Actually, the R^2 for the linear fit was 0.80, but it was 0.88 for a log fit, so the exponential is actually a better match. But, functional form aside, the real nit to pick is trying to predict the future of GA with just one variable. Nevertheless, no matter how you interpret the graph, it does certainly paint a dire picture for GA.  -- dave j
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#9
June 7th 07, 03:31 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
RST Engineering wrote:
Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since 1990. Jim If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in trouble. What are we going to do about it?
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#10
June 7th 07, 03:48 PM
posted to rec.aviation.piloting
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GA piston flying down almost 50% since 2000
The reason I did sheet/graph 3 was that prior to 1990, you still had a
goodly portion of the GA fleet burning piston juice. Just about this time, the folks who were flying "for real" and sucking most of the gas (i.e. corporate, air taxi, freight...) converted to the more efficient turbine juice. I know that is when the local firebombers converted from the S2F with the Pratt&Scat round piston engines to the S2T Garrett?? turboprop and the spotters converted from the Skymasters to the OV-2. That in and of itself cut GOO's piston juice usage in half. It was purely an arbitrary decision but one based on reality. Jim -- "Work like you don't need the money, love like you've never been hurt, and dance like no one is watching." --Satchel Paige "Gig 601XL Builder" wrDOTgiaconaATsuddenlink.net wrote in message ... RST Engineering wrote: Tell ya what. Three spread sheets and three graphs of the spreadsheets will be posted to www.rstengineering.com/photos in fifteen minutes. Take a look at the straightness of the line since 1990. Jim If you did the same with the data from 83 to 87 it would have been at zero in 91 or 92 and that was a much straighter line. No doubt GA is in trouble. What are we going to do about it?
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