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Ice meteors, climate, sceptics



 
 
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  #11  
Old January 26th 04, 10:19 PM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Eric Hocking wrote:
Brian Sandle wrote in message ...
Eric Hocking wrote:

snip

Sorry to drop in out of lurking, but I always found it amusing to
watch ET cropcircle proponents squirm when I pointed out at
sci.skeptic that;


During the foot and mouth disease outbreak in the UK in 2001 the
government closed all countryside footpaths, effectively blocking any
but the farmer from crop fields.


During the ban no crop circles were recorded in the English
countryside.


The first crop circle in England to be recorded was the day after the
walking ban was lifted in that county.


Very community minded is our ET.


Any decent scientist knows
(a) correlation is not causation


Fine - put forward another explanation for the correlation between
lifting footpath bans and the late 2001 appearance of circles in
British crops.


(b) to check the data.


Ah, let's just do that shall we?


(a) About 90% of the walkways were open in September 1991 in Britain.


Since I specifically stated 2001, what has this to do with my post?


I meant 2001. It was in an offical PDF file which I cannot find again, with
the history of F&MD.

Feb 27 2001 announcement on footpath closures.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/newsrel/2001/010227d.htm


Linkname: CropCircleInvestigated
URL: http://www.geocities.com/hbccufo/Cro...estigated.html

snip

So that they occurred world over again at the end of foot and mouth in
Britain may or may not be just a coincidence.


I did not say worldwide - I quite specifically said "English" circles.


But I am pointing out it could be world wide.

The fact remains that the first cropcircles to appear in BRITAIN, were
found and probably created (as per the cropcircle database site) in
late/end of May. Just as the FMD footpath restrictions were being
eased.


Search your database for any country April 2001, there is only one result,
and that is an acknowledged art work.

So, what caused the cessation of circlemaking in Britain that year?
Surely footpath closures wouldn't have had any effect on airborne ET?
The only restriction was on *human* access on the ground to crop
fields. I'm sure it's purely coincidental that the lifting of those
restrictions correlate with the first appearance of new circles in
May.


They started appearing world over in May.

(b) Though I now confound myself somewhat by giving this:

Linkname: Weird Wiltshire - Crop Circles - News Archive
URL:
http://www.thisispewsey.co.uk/wiltsh...rd/231001.html


First published on October 23
THE foot and mouth epidemic may have hampered the search for crop circles
in Wiltshire's corn fields but the people who spend time looking for them
still managed to record some incredible formations.


All created in May after the FMD restrictions were eased.


That is correlation not proven causation.

This as per
the cropcircle database site:
http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=x&y=2001&c=UK&l=&k=&m=April
http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=x&y=2001&c=UK&l=&k=&m=May


[...]
In spite of the foot and mouth restrictions which meant that the croppies
had to keep away from fields and could not fly overland,


The above statement seems to imply that circles *might* have been
created prior to May 2001, but the croppies were unable to find them
merely due to to the fact that they were not allowed to do air
searches. That's patently untrue as per the Hansard record of May 9
http://www.parliament.the-stationery-office.co.uk/pa/cm200001/cmhansrd/vo010509/text/10509w19.htm
The aviation bans were that you could not fly *below* 500ft over
infected land or *below* 1000ft over the livestock cremation sites.
There was nothing to stop croppies flying over at 1500ft plus scouring
for circles.


Maybe they misunderstood.

So to claim that there *might* have been circles created before May is
moot, since they can't prove it happened and I can't prove it didn't.


You like the correlation, and searching world wide back to Nov 2000 there are
very few. Just a couple on ice, one reported on ice too thin to walk on.


about 40
formations were officially recorded in Wiltshire.


The NUMBER of circles is irrelevant, it is WHEN they appeared. Here's
part of my post from 2001, one of the council links is dead and see
this link for May 2001
http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=x&y=2001&c=UK&l=&k=&m=May


"This is the Hampshire County Council notice regarding F&M
http://www.hants.gov.uk/hcc/emergency/footmouth.html
Guess when it's dated? You got it 11 May. It links to an emergency
plan for
Hants: http://www.hants.gov.uk/hcc/emergency/scudamore.html
dated March.


And of course, the first one in England turned up in? Hampshire - on
May
16. http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=uk01ab


When Wiltshire opened up
http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/download...411_order.html


Lo and Behold! A crop circle turns up in Wiltshire.
http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=uk01aq "



Not sure how they did it.


Waited in the pub until walking restrictions were lifted?


Somewhere I read it is admitted that some farmers create them as they get
grants for people to come on to their land.

Then the scientific tests should be different.
  #12  
Old January 26th 04, 11:21 PM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Brian Sandle wrote:
Eric Hocking wrote:



Fine - put forward another explanation for the correlation between
lifting footpath bans and the late 2001 appearance of circles in
British crops.


http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/database/index.html

then go to foot and mouth.

2001 has very similar figures for April as 2000 and 2002.
  #13  
Old January 27th 04, 12:21 AM
Dennis M. Rodgers
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

The topic has diverged from anything meteorological. Please
drop sci.geo.meteorology from the list. Thank you.

Brian Sandle wrote:
Brian Sandle wrote:

Eric Hocking wrote:




Fine - put forward another explanation for the correlation between
lifting footpath bans and the late 2001 appearance of circles in
British crops.



http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/database/index.html

then go to foot and mouth.

2001 has very similar figures for April as 2000 and 2002.



  #14  
Old January 27th 04, 01:56 AM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Dennis M. Rodgers wrote:
The topic has diverged from anything meteorological. Please
drop sci.geo.meteorology from the list. Thank you.


Grant suggested that ice meteors be in the crop circle category of fakes.

But are they fakes, for if they aren't all then that argument may have to
be ruled out.

No-one has commented on polar stratospheric cloud. Grant pointed out how
thin the atmosphere is there. They occur in the winter. Maybe conditions
are sufficient to make clouds of water from cometary fragments. Can any
large fragments get through?

We touched on vortices. Vortex theory was advanced by Kelvin and Thomson,
but superceded by the particle theory, though particles were found to have
spin. Maybe spin can have a laser effect. Sorry about the dreaming. The
simple wind vortices would seem to produce too irregular a form to be
recognised as a crop circle.

Is there any theory of how smoke rings can bounce off one another, and can
that happen with any atmospheric clouds?

  #15  
Old January 27th 04, 01:59 AM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Dennis M. Rodgers wrote:
The topic has diverged from anything meteorological. Please
drop sci.geo.meteorology from the list. Thank you.


Grant suggested that ice meteors be in the crop circle category of fakes.

But are they fakes, for if they aren't all then that argument may have to
be ruled out.

No-one has commented on polar stratospheric cloud. Grant pointed out how
thin the atmosphere is there. They occur in the winter. Maybe conditions
are sufficient to make clouds of water from cometary fragments. Can any
large fragments get through?

We touched on vortices. Vortex theory was advanced by Kelvin and Thomson,
but superceded by the particle theory, though particles were found to have
spin. Maybe spin can have a laser effect. Sorry about the dreaming. The
simple wind vortices would seem to produce too irregular a form to be
recognised as a crop circle.

Is there any theory of how smoke rings can bounce off one another, and can
that happen with any atmospheric clouds?

  #16  
Old January 27th 04, 02:19 AM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Brian Sandle wrote:

No-one has commented on polar stratospheric cloud. Grant pointed out how
thin the atmosphere is there. They occur in the winter. Maybe conditions
are sufficient to make clouds of water from cometary fragments. Can any
large fragments get through?


We touched on vortices. Vortex theory was advanced by Kelvin and Thomson,
but superceded by the particle theory, though particles were found to have
spin. Maybe spin can have a laser effect. Sorry about the dreaming. The
simple wind vortices would seem to produce too irregular a form to be
recognised as a crop circle.


Is there any theory of how smoke rings can bounce off one another, and can
that happen with any atmospheric clouds?


Grant said that if vortices were present which could form ice meteors then
there would be clouds, too. But is it possible to have in the upper
atmosphere a wind sort of like the Antarctic katabatic, 350 km/hr with a
clear sky?

What is the velocity of wind in the clear air turbulence which affects
aircraft?
  #17  
Old January 28th 04, 12:49 AM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Dennis M. Rodgers wrote:
Brian Sandle wrote:



Is there any theory of how smoke rings can bounce off one another, and can
that happen with any atmospheric clouds?


Maybe you could find a science fiction newsgroup where this
stuff might be well received. It has no relationship to the
science of meteorology.


How about making some comment on the scientific quesitons I put, the high
cloud, the katabatic, the clear air turbulence. Then we can proceed.
  #18  
Old January 30th 04, 01:18 AM
Eric Hocking
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

[note sci.geo.meteorology dropped from followups as requested]

"Brian Sandle" wrote in message
...
Eric Hocking wrote:
Brian Sandle wrote in message

...
Eric Hocking wrote:

snip
Sorry to drop in out of lurking, but I always found it amusing to
watch ET cropcircle proponents squirm when I pointed out at
sci.skeptic that;

During the foot and mouth disease outbreak in the UK in 2001 the
government closed all countryside footpaths, effectively blocking any
but the farmer from crop fields.

During the ban no crop circles were recorded in the English
countryside.

The first crop circle in England to be recorded was the day after the
walking ban was lifted in that county.

Very community minded is our ET.

Any decent scientist knows
(a) correlation is not causation


Fine - put forward another explanation for the correlation between
lifting footpath bans and the late 2001 appearance of circles in
British crops.


(b) to check the data.


Ah, let's just do that shall we?


(a) About 90% of the walkways were open in September 1991 in Britain.


Since I specifically stated 2001, what has this to do with my post?


I meant 2001. It was in an offical PDF file which I cannot find again,

with
the history of F&MD.


OK - so *most* of the rights of way were open by Sept 2001, this still has
nothing to do with my statement that there is a correlation between lack of
circle building while the blanket bans were in effect, does it? Further I
pointed out ath there is a correlation between the staged openings of rights
of way, county by county, and the appearance of the first circles in 2001 in
those counties corresponding with those openings.

Feb 27 2001 announcement on footpath closures.
http://www.defra.gov.uk/news/newsrel/2001/010227d.htm
Linkname: CropCircleInvestigated
URL:

http://www.geocities.com/hbccufo/Cro...estigated.html
snip
So that they occurred world over again at the end of foot and mouth in
Britain may or may not be just a coincidence.

I did not say worldwide - I quite specifically said "English" circles.


But I am pointing out it could be world wide.


A point that is quite irrelevant to the discussion though. Blanket bans on
countryside rights of way were only in place in Britain due to FMD in 2001.
What influence would these bans have on walking in a field in Canada or New
Zealand?

The fact remains that the first cropcircles to appear in BRITAIN, were
found and probably created (as per the cropcircle database site) in
late/end of May. Just as the FMD footpath restrictions were being
eased.


Search your database for any country April 2001, there is only one result,
and that is an acknowledged art work.


And this has what to do with my statement about the timing of crop circles
appearing in May in areas where blanket bans on access to rights of way were
being eased?

So, what caused the cessation of circlemaking in Britain that year?
Surely footpath closures wouldn't have had any effect on airborne ET?
The only restriction was on *human* access on the ground to crop
fields. I'm sure it's purely coincidental that the lifting of those
restrictions correlate with the first appearance of new circles in
May.


They started appearing world over in May.


As they do each year - but in Britain and specifically England (ie as per my
initial point) they did not appear in fields that had blanket bans on
access. They only started to appear after these bans were lifted. At least
address the point I am making rather than going off on irrelevant tangents.

(b) Though I now confound myself somewhat by giving this:
Linkname: Weird Wiltshire - Crop Circles - News Archive
URL:

http://www.thisispewsey.co.uk/wiltsh...rd/231001.html
First published on October 23
THE foot and mouth epidemic may have hampered the search for crop

circles
in Wiltshire's corn fields but the people who spend time looking for

them
still managed to record some incredible formations.


All created in May after the FMD restrictions were eased.


That is correlation not proven causation.


Give reasonable alternatives to my point then. What caused the different
timing and distribution of circle building in 2001? The correlation between
the appearance of circles, county by county, and the lifting of blanket bans
in those counties, while quite a coincidence, is certainly a compelling
coincidence. Have you compared the timing and distribution of circles in
2001 when the bans were in place and those in 2000 and 2002 when no
countryside movement bans were in place?

This as per
the cropcircle database site:

http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cg...K&l=&k=&m=Apri
l

http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=x&y=2001&c=UK&l=&k=&m=May

[...]
In spite of the foot and mouth restrictions which meant that the

croppies
had to keep away from fields and could not fly overland,


The above statement seems to imply that circles *might* have been
created prior to May 2001, but the croppies were unable to find them
merely due to to the fact that they were not allowed to do air
searches. That's patently untrue as per the Hansard record of May 9

http://www.parliament.the-stationery.../cmhansrd/vo01
0509/text/10509w19.htm
The aviation bans were that you could not fly *below* 500ft over
infected land or *below* 1000ft over the livestock cremation sites.
There was nothing to stop croppies flying over at 1500ft plus scouring
for circles.


Maybe they misunderstood.


Maybe, regardless, their statement that they were not able to fly over
fields to look for circles is untrue. To imply that this is a reasonable
explanation for the lateness of sightings in 2001 holds much less water than
my statement that there were not cirlces being made because the people on
the *ground* who make the circles were banned from entering fields during
that time.

So to claim that there *might* have been circles created before May is
moot, since they can't prove it happened and I can't prove it didn't.


You like the correlation, and searching world wide back to Nov 2000 there

are
very few. Just a couple on ice, one reported on ice too thin to walk on.


What's with these irrelevant tangents? I'm not talking about worldwide, I'm
talking about the timing and distribution of circle building in England 2001
and what affect the FMD countryside ban had on it.

about 40
formations were officially recorded in Wiltshire.


The NUMBER of circles is irrelevant, it is WHEN they appeared. Here's
part of my post from 2001, one of the council links is dead and see
this link for May 2001

http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=x&y=2001&c=UK&l=&k=&m=May
"This is the Hampshire County Council notice regarding F&M
http://www.hants.gov.uk/hcc/emergency/footmouth.html
Guess when it's dated? You got it 11 May. It links to an emergency
plan for
Hants: http://www.hants.gov.uk/hcc/emergency/scudamore.html
dated March.
And of course, the first one in England turned up in? Hampshire - on
May
16. http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=uk01ab
When Wiltshire opened up
http://www.wiltshire.gov.uk/download...411_order.html
Lo and Behold! A crop circle turns up in Wiltshire.
http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cgi-bin/CCdb?d=uk01aq "
Not sure how they did it.

Waited in the pub until walking restrictions were lifted?


Somewhere I read it is admitted that some farmers create them as they get
grants for people to come on to their land.


Then you were misled.
Farmers do not receive grants for people coming onto their land. Who would
be giving out these grants by the way?
Farmers can claim some insurance for vandalism, it does not cover the cost
of the lost crop. Anecdotally, I have heard that circle builders have
offered some cash compensation at times, but the farmers lose more in
damaged crop than they make up in these nonexistent grants.
About all they can do is ask for an "entry fee" from people who want to
access their fields to view a circle.

Then the scientific tests should be different.


What tests are these? Why should they be different? And what has that got
to do with the farmer anecdote above?

--
Eric Hocking
www.twofromoz.freeserve.co.uk
"A closed mouth gathers no feet"
"Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke
Attempting spam blocking - remove upper case to reply.


  #19  
Old January 30th 04, 01:32 AM
Eric Hocking
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

[sci.g.meteorology dropped from follow-ups]

"Brian Sandle" wrote in message
...
Brian Sandle wrote:
Eric Hocking wrote:


Fine - put forward another explanation for the correlation between
lifting footpath bans and the late 2001 appearance of circles in
British crops.


http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/database/index.html

then go to foot and mouth.

2001 has very similar figures for April as 2000 and 2002.


Hmm, 3 in April 2000, 0 in April 2001 and 1 in 2002.
Noted the 2001 was by an artist. The comments on the next two are amusing
"Very amateurish looking" and "Fairly rough looking". Must have been
apprentice aliens trying it out for the first time!

As you suggested I do in an earlier post, check the data. Go also to the
county news releases on when and where the blanket bans were lifted and then
have a look at when and where the circles started to appear in 2001.

By limiting yourself to a single resource, you're not getting the whole
picture and limit the points of view you can put forward. In counter to the
cropcircleresearch site http://www.circlemakers.org/ specifically
http://www.circlemakers.org/totc2001.html for their 2001 round up.

--
Eric Hocking
www.twofromoz.freeserve.co.uk
"A closed mouth gathers no feet"
"Ignorance is a renewable resource" P.J.O'Rourke
Attempting spam blocking - remove upper case to reply.


  #20  
Old January 30th 04, 11:45 AM
Brian Sandle
external usenet poster
 
Posts: n/a
Default

Eric Hocking wrote:
[note sci.geo.meteorology dropped from followups as requested]


We can go back there and report the results later.

"Brian Sandle" wrote in message
...
Eric Hocking wrote:

Fine - put forward another explanation for the correlation between
lifting footpath bans and the late 2001 appearance of circles in
British crops.


You were saying late 2001, then more recently, see below you are
saying it was happening as they cam open in May.


(b) to check the data.


Ah, let's just do that shall we?


(a) About 90% of the walkways were open in September 1991 in Britain.


Since I specifically stated 2001, what has this to do with my post?


I meant 2001. It was in an offical PDF file which I cannot find again,

with
the history of F&MD.


OK - so *most* of the rights of way were open by Sept 2001, this still has
nothing to do with my statement that there is a correlation between lack of
circle building while the blanket bans were in effect, does it? Further I
pointed out ath there is a correlation between the staged openings of rights
of way, county by county, and the appearance of the first circles in 2001 in
those counties corresponding with those openings.


Where is the data?


But I am pointing out it could be world wide.


A point that is quite irrelevant to the discussion though. Blanket bans on
countryside rights of way were only in place in Britain due to FMD in 2001.
What influence would these bans have on walking in a field in Canada or New
Zealand?


Exactly my point. Though NZ is southern hemisphere, the circles
start appearing across nothern hemisphere in May in it was pretty
much the same in 2001 as 2000 or 2002.

The fact remains that the first cropcircles to appear in BRITAIN, were
found and probably created (as per the cropcircle database site) in
late/end of May. Just as the FMD footpath restrictions were being
eased.


It had been a wet season and crops got started late, so so did
circles.

Search your database for any country April 2001, there is only one result,
and that is an acknowledged art work.


And this has what to do with my statement about the timing of crop circles
appearing in May in areas where blanket bans on access to rights of way were
being eased?


Some might have been arranged by farmers for extra income after the
F&M trouble.

They started appearing world over in May.


As they do each year - but in Britain and specifically England (ie as per my
initial point) they did not appear in fields that had blanket bans on
access. They only started to appear after these bans were lifted. At least
address the point I am making rather than going off on irrelevant tangents.


Data please.

That is correlation not proven causation.


Give reasonable alternatives to my point then. What caused the different
timing and distribution of circle building in 2001?


Wet season.

The correlation between
the appearance of circles, county by county, and the lifting of blanket bans
in those counties, while quite a coincidence, is certainly a compelling
coincidence. Have you compared the timing and distribution of circles in
2001 when the bans were in place and those in 2000 and 2002 when no
countryside movement bans were in place?


Here are the data of circles, with the 13 May Hampshire one still in
F&M territory. You give the F&M clearance dates for the UK places

May 1 2000 Germany 2002 Germany
May6 2001 Netherlands, 2002 UK-Wiltshire
May 11 2000 Canada
May 13 2001 Germany, UK-Hampshire (still F&M territory)
May 14 2000 Germany Italy Malaysia UK-Kent UK-Wiltshire
May 15 2000 UK-Leicestershire
May 17 2000 Germany 2001 Canada
May 20 2000 Germany UK-Hampshire UK-Avon UK-Wiltshire 2002 Germany
May 22 2000 USA 2001 Italy UK-Dorset USA
May 24 2000 Germany 2001 Germany
May 25 2000 Germany x3 2001 Germany UK-Wiltshire
May 26 2002 Germany
May 27 2000 UK-Hampshire
May 29 2001 UK-Wiltshire UK-Hertsforshire 2002 Canada
May 30 2000 UK-Wiltshire 2001 UK-Wiltshire x2 Yugoslavia 2003 Canada
May 31 2000 UK-Avon UK-Wilthsire 2001 UK-Wiltshire x2

plus in 2000 one in UK-Hampshire on an unknown date.


This as per
the cropcircle database site:

http://www.cropcircleresearch.com/cg...K&l=&k=&m=Apri
l
There was nothing to stop croppies flying over at 1500ft plus scouring
for circles.


Maybe they misunderstood.


Maybe, regardless, their statement that they were not able to fly over
fields to look for circles is untrue. To imply that this is a reasonable
explanation for the lateness of sightings in 2001 holds much less water than
my statement that there were not cirlces being made because the people on
the *ground* who make the circles were banned from entering fields during
that time.


I don't think there is much statistical difference between the
years, even now I have mentioned weather.

So to claim that there *might* have been circles created before May is
moot, since they can't prove it happened and I can't prove it didn't.


You like the correlation, and searching world wide back to Nov 2000 there

are
very few. Just a couple on ice, one reported on ice too thin to walk on.


What's with these irrelevant tangents? I'm not talking about worldwide, I'm
talking about the timing and distribution of circle building in England 2001
and what affect the FMD countryside ban had on it.


They seem to occur all around the world on the same days, sometimes.

May 14, 15 2000 there were 6, then only one till May 20 when another
4 showed world-wide. May 24-25 4

Somewhere I read it is admitted that some farmers create them as they get
grants for people to come on to their land.


Then you were misled.
Farmers do not receive grants for people coming onto their land. Who would
be giving out these grants by the way?


Perhaps it is stewardship grants for farmers farming in national
parks. More visitors more money?

Farmers can claim some insurance for vandalism, it does not cover the cost
of the lost crop. Anecdotally, I have heard that circle builders have
offered some cash compensation at times, but the farmers lose more in
damaged crop than they make up in these nonexistent grants.
About all they can do is ask for an "entry fee" from people who want to
access their fields to view a circle.


Which they would need after F&M, Though from 20th May 2000 till end
of May there were 7 or 8 in UK and in 2001 from 22 May till end 8.


Then the scientific tests should be different.


What tests are these? Why should they be different? And what has that got
to do with the farmer anecdote above?


Some look for haematite attracted by magnetic effects. Othe search
for Nitric Oxide formed by extremely short duration electric fields.
Some look for changes in cellular structure.
 




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