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Future of 15m



 
 
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  #1  
Old December 2nd 17, 09:47 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Foster
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Posts: 354
Default Future of 15m

With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?
  #2  
Old December 2nd 17, 11:05 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Andy Blackburn[_3_]
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Default Future of 15m

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 12:47:41 PM UTC-8, John Foster wrote:
With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?


One indication would be the number of pilots attending US Nationals.

Overall participation is slowly declining for a whole host of reasons I won't get into. The relative level of participation and rate of decline varies a lot by class.

18M - Currently the best-attended FAI nationals with an average participation of 25 pilots over the past 5 years and participation gradually declining by about 1 pilot every 7 years since 1997. Participation had been good the last couple of years, but a lot of short term variation is related to site selection and idiosyncratic factors.

15M - Second most popular class with 23 pilots attending a Nationals on average over 5 years with a more rapid decline of around 1.7 pilots per year. 15/18 gliders ought to keep the 15M Nationals going for awhile as pilots tend to elect to do either 15 or 18 based on geographic proximity (not many people drive across the country for a contest anymore).

Open - Contracted to a dedicated 10-20 pilots attending Nationals, depending on venue (13 average). The emergence of 18/21M gliders may help sustain Open. On average participation has fallen by about one pilot per 3-4 years.

Standard - Lowest participation and steepest 20-year decline. 10 pilots on average (12 if you don't count the goose-egg at Hobbs in 2014). Standard has lost 2 pilots per year on average since 1997, but has been flat at right around the minimum number required for a valid contest since 2009.

Here are some charts to show the actual data:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-v...59xCUDFrF9pdYu

Hope that helps.

Andy Blackburn (9B) - on behalf of the Contest Rules Committee
  #3  
Old December 2nd 17, 11:38 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Godfrey (QT)[_2_]
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Posts: 321
Default Future of 15m

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 5:05:49 PM UTC-5, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 12:47:41 PM UTC-8, John Foster wrote:
With the rise in popularity of 18m soaring, what do you guys think will be the future of 15m? Are there enough advantages of 15m over 18m for it to continue to have a strong place in competition? It seems most manufacturers are now making 18m sailplanes, that can be converted to 15m, but they primarily start or come as 18m now. Thoughts?


One indication would be the number of pilots attending US Nationals.

Overall participation is slowly declining for a whole host of reasons I won't get into. The relative level of participation and rate of decline varies a lot by class.

18M - Currently the best-attended FAI nationals with an average participation of 25 pilots over the past 5 years and participation gradually declining by about 1 pilot every 7 years since 1997. Participation had been good the last couple of years, but a lot of short term variation is related to site selection and idiosyncratic factors.

15M - Second most popular class with 23 pilots attending a Nationals on average over 5 years with a more rapid decline of around 1.7 pilots per year.. 15/18 gliders ought to keep the 15M Nationals going for awhile as pilots tend to elect to do either 15 or 18 based on geographic proximity (not many people drive across the country for a contest anymore).

Open - Contracted to a dedicated 10-20 pilots attending Nationals, depending on venue (13 average). The emergence of 18/21M gliders may help sustain Open. On average participation has fallen by about one pilot per 3-4 years..

Standard - Lowest participation and steepest 20-year decline. 10 pilots on average (12 if you don't count the goose-egg at Hobbs in 2014). Standard has lost 2 pilots per year on average since 1997, but has been flat at right around the minimum number required for a valid contest since 2009.

Here are some charts to show the actual data:

https://drive.google.com/open?id=1-v...59xCUDFrF9pdYu

Hope that helps.

Andy Blackburn (9B) - on behalf of the Contest Rules Committee


Andy,
I think we have to go beyond Nationals to address this properly. Harder to do as you need to map glider to native class for all the regionals.
  #4  
Old December 3rd 17, 05:40 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Andy Blackburn[_3_]
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Posts: 608
Default Future of 15m

On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 2:38:59 PM UTC-8, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
Andy,
I think we have to go beyond Nationals to address this properly. Harder to do as you need to map glider to native class for all the regionals.


Yeah, that's more work that I was willing to do. Nationals participation is an okay leading indicator.

The other thing to think about is you can always fly Sports and there are occasionally mixed FAI contests. Generally, organizers don't want to turn pilots away so I wouldn't be too concerned that anyone is going to pull the plug on 15M anytime soon.

Last year, the average PRL score for competitors at FAI Nationals was 94 for 18M, 92 for Open, 91 for standard and 90 for 15M, so high-quality pilots continue to fly all classes at the Nationals level at least.

Lots of very good 15M gliders out there - Standard too.

9B
  #5  
Old December 3rd 17, 04:31 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Jonathan St. Cloud
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Posts: 1,463
Default Future of 15m

I fly a 29, never flown a 27 but I can tell you what you get in a 29 that you do not get in a 27. A 29 has wings that are 50 pounds heavier per side! So add in the extra 100 pounds in wing weight, throw in $50,000 mix it together and you get a 4-5% increase in performance. I do love the 29, but if I had a modern 15 meter, I would not look to "upgrade", unless of course I was going open class! As far as racing there is top flight competition in 15 meters from regional level through WGC level.



On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 8:40:30 PM UTC-8, Andy Blackburn wrote:
On Saturday, December 2, 2017 at 2:38:59 PM UTC-8, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
Andy,
I think we have to go beyond Nationals to address this properly. Harder to do as you need to map glider to native class for all the regionals.


Yeah, that's more work that I was willing to do. Nationals participation is an okay leading indicator.

The other thing to think about is you can always fly Sports and there are occasionally mixed FAI contests. Generally, organizers don't want to turn pilots away so I wouldn't be too concerned that anyone is going to pull the plug on 15M anytime soon.

Last year, the average PRL score for competitors at FAI Nationals was 94 for 18M, 92 for Open, 91 for standard and 90 for 15M, so high-quality pilots continue to fly all classes at the Nationals level at least.

Lots of very good 15M gliders out there - Standard too.

9B

  #6  
Old December 4th 17, 08:24 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
John Foster
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Posts: 354
Default Future of 15m

Sounds like for competitive soaring to endure in the US, there needs to be a significant push to get more people involved. Sounds like there needs to be more focus on young people, getting them involved from an early age.

I'm from MT, and there is apparently only 1 soaring club in the state, and it is a solid 4hr drive from where I live. And from what I'm told, they are not very active, if at all. Yet there is an airport 1 mile from my house with a whole fleet of Piper Pawnees (used mostly for wildland firefighting). Not a whole lot of money locally, but the place would make for stunning soaring!
  #7  
Old December 4th 17, 08:44 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Rhubarb[_2_]
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Posts: 13
Default Future of 15m

I think the GP15 could well start a 15m resurgence

Electric self launcher (with ballast)
near 18m performance at 15m prices
light handling both in the air and on the ground (pity the wings arent 4 piece)

massive research in batteries should help. As long as the batteries (in the wings) dont catch fire or fail to perform because they are cold, this machine looks like a winner
  #8  
Old December 4th 17, 09:09 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
krasw
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Posts: 668
Default Future of 15m

On Monday, 4 December 2017 09:44:41 UTC+2, Rhubarb wrote:
I think the GP15 could well start a 15m resurgence

Electric self launcher (with ballast)
near 18m performance at 15m prices
light handling both in the air and on the ground (pity the wings arent 4 piece)

massive research in batteries should help. As long as the batteries (in the wings) dont catch fire or fail to perform because they are cold, this machine looks like a winner


One thing is sure, there is no market for new glider that has no engine, so GP15 and possibly FES-Diana2 are the only contenders in pure 15m class. I guess some pilots will buy 15m tips for their 18m gliders, out of old habit while not using them outside 15m competitions.

There is no advance in aerodynamics that would make latest 15m perform like current 18m gliders, that is just marketing. Wing profiles have developed little lately.
  #9  
Old December 4th 17, 09:43 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Rhubarb[_2_]
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Default Future of 15m

materials seem to have improved though. the GP15 is very light, which allows a lower wing area, which gives a higher aspect ratio, which is probably the reason behind the expected performance gains. (maybe thinner wing too)
  #10  
Old December 4th 17, 10:03 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
JS[_5_]
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Posts: 624
Default Future of 15m

On Monday, December 4, 2017 at 12:43:30 AM UTC-8, Rhubarb wrote:
materials seem to have improved though. the GP15 is very light, which allows a lower wing area, which gives a higher aspect ratio, which is probably the reason behind the expected performance gains. (maybe thinner wing too)


Hoping to see the GP15 at Reno.
Jim
 




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