New Planes from old companies

Okay, its getting boring so, here is a new twist on an old subject.

Beech and Cessna have recently seen HUGE increases in demand for aircraft
with the G1000 cockpits. Will this cause them to rethink the introduction
of a new piston design to compete with the new players?

If so, how long till you can buy one and fly it?

GO!

"Dude" wrote:
Beech and Cessna have recently seen HUGE increases in demand for
aircraft
with the G1000 cockpits. Will this cause them to rethink the
introduction
of a new piston design to compete with the new players?
...

I wouldn't have a clue true or not, but I'd still like to know if
that's a fact or just press release puffery.

Fred F.

Well, Beech is claiming fifty orders for Bo's, and they seem as suprised as
anyone. I believe them.

Cessna has a big back order for G1000 182's, and I heard interested buyers
who were frustrated at the wait, as well as C Stars who were claiming to be
sold out of inventory for over 6 months.

I believe them too.




"TaxSrv" wrote in message
...
"Dude" wrote:
Beech and Cessna have recently seen HUGE increases in demand for
aircraft
with the G1000 cockpits. Will this cause them to rethink the
introduction
of a new piston design to compete with the new players?
...

I wouldn't have a clue true or not, but I'd still like to know if
that's a fact or just press release puffery.

Fred F.

I'm not sure how these old companies with their long suffering bottom
lines on singles could afford to get a new design thru certification. And
if they did how they'd ever sell enough planes to recoup their investment.


"Dude" wrote in message
...
Okay, its getting boring so, here is a new twist on an old subject.

Beech and Cessna have recently seen HUGE increases in demand for aircraft
with the G1000 cockpits. Will this cause them to rethink the introduction
of a new piston design to compete with the new players?

If so, how long till you can buy one and fly it?

GO!

"OtisWinslow" wrote in message
news
I'm not sure how these old companies with their long suffering bottom
lines on singles could afford to get a new design thru certification. And
if they did how they'd ever sell enough planes to recoup their investment.


None of the new aircraft manufacturers have done it yet.

Couldn't they do it like Cirrus, Diamond, and Lancair have done it?

If these guys can make money, then it would seem that Cessna has a near
guarantee on a 182 replacement.

Dude wrote:

Couldn't they do it like Cirrus, Diamond, and Lancair have done it?

If these guys can make money, then it would seem that Cessna has a near
guarantee on a 182 replacement.



I don't think Cirrus has come even close to making money yet, on a total
investment basis. I haven't keep track of the total amount of venture
capital they've secured, but I think it was north of $200MM. That will
take a long time to recoup. They may well be profitable at the
operations level, but that isn't the same thing as "making money" overall.

I suspect that Cessna has run the numbers and realizes that the cost of
a "clean sheet" light airplane would simply never be recovered in
today's market.

Matt

"Matt Whiting" wrote in message
...
I don't think Cirrus has come even close to making money yet, on a total
investment basis. I haven't keep track of the total amount of venture
capital they've secured, but I think it was north of $200MM. That will
take a long time to recoup. They may well be profitable at the operations
level, but that isn't the same thing as "making money" overall.

I'm sure you're right but a quick look at the numbers makes me wonder how
they AREN'T going to recoup that $$. Cirrus is selling something like 50
planes a month. You'd think their profit margin on a 300k airplane would be
at least 20k. If so, that's roughly 10Mil in profit every year and a 20
year break even on the initial 200Mil investment.

Diamond's numbers are roughly the same. Supposedly the Austrian factory
pumps out 400 planes/year and another 100 come out of Ontario. Unless these
guys are operating on Dell like profit margins it's hard to see how they
won't make their investments back.

I suspect that Cessna has run the numbers and realizes that the cost of a
"clean sheet" light airplane would simply never be recovered in today's
market.

Agreed, but Diamond nonetheless managed to come up with 4 "clean sheet"
designs in less than 10 years - including a light jet. Why can't Cessna and
Piper do it? Is the FAA THAT much worse than the JAA (or whatever the
european equivalent is)? You also have to wonder how much longer Cessna and
Piper can afford to NOT bring out a new design.


-Brian
Iowa City, IA

"Dude" wrote in message
...
Couldn't they do it like Cirrus, Diamond, and Lancair have done it?

If these guys can make money, then it would seem that Cessna has a near
guarantee on a 182 replacement.


But Cessna doesn't need a 182 replacement. They don't seem to be having any
trouble selling Skylanes and Skyhawks and they are probably making a hefty
profit on each plane that rolls off the line. IIRC a year or two back Cirrus
was still trying to get labor costs down low enough so that they weren't
*losing* money on each plane they sold. I don't know if they've even broken
that barrier yet. Forget about certification costs. Other than Cessna pretty
much every GA manufacturer has been through at least one bankruptcy. Well,
guess what that does? It washes out the cost of certification, and now the
new owner can essentially try to figure out how to manufacture the plane at
a profit.

The market is currently not that large, and the manufacturers are better off
staying out of each others' territory. Cessna is Old Reliable, with Piper
basically mopping up a lot of niches with all sorts of training a/c and
Mooney, well, they've been through bankruptcy more times than Donald Trump.
Cirrus and Lancair are going to duke it out for high-performance. These are
separate market segments just like cars and trucks, and two players does not
make a competitive market. As it is now, prices are high and you've got to
wait in line to get your plane. Perfect situation for manufacturers.

-cwk.

"Dude" wrote in message
...
Couldn't they do it like Cirrus, Diamond, and Lancair have done it?


They have not done it yet. Cirrus and Diamond have not nearly recouped their
investment. All three manufacturers have had to ask their investors for more
money. Lancair darned near didn't make it.

I think it is an outrage. Right now the biggest impediment to aviation
safety has to be the FAA, followed closely by the insurance companies and
the trial lawyers.