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#72
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Pilots with weakening vision - please install Powerflarm
On Friday, July 12, 2013 10:50:50 AM UTC-4, jfitch wrote:
I am surprised so far no one has noticed a serious flaw in my statistical argument. Perhaps someone who understands statistics better than I do can clarify why the sample size that you use in your analysis is large enough to produce statistically valid conclusions. You've made an effort to gather and use all available data, and it sure would be nice if this were enough data to draw valid statistical conclusions, but do you really have enough data? People who understand statistics know how to answer that question. And even if I accept your number, what does it mean to my purchase decision? The probability that you calculate would be too low for contest flying, and much too high for gliders flying XC in sparsely populated areas on weekdays. I would expect that the probability of a mid-air would be higher within a few miles of an airport, and much higher on a Saturday afternoon. If I fly in all of those situations, what number should I use? It seems like the probability of PowerFlarm saving my life in the most dangerous situation is the most prudent choice. (Is this why contest pilots feel that PowerFlarm is a bargain?) My confusion about my personal cost/benefit goes deeper. If I buy a PowerFlarm and it saves my life, I would consider that to be the best $2000 that I ever spent. If I buy a PowerFlarm and it does not save my life, then I have wasted my money? No. If I buy a PowerFlarm as part of a community of glider pilots, and that collective action consequently saves the lives of a handful of glider pilots over a number of years, well hell, I'd still feel pretty dam good about spending that $2000. We say that we don't want to spend money on something that does not benefit us directly, but then we feel good about being part of something that saves somebody else's life. Go figure. |
#73
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Pilots with weakening vision - please install Powerflarm
Here's another question for our experts in statistics (and epidemiology).
Have you ever heard of 'Herd Immunity'? The idea is that you don't have to vaccinate everyone in order to stop the spread of a person-to-person communicable disease (for example, the flu). So a midair seems to be a lot like a person-to-person communicable disease. Does Herd Immunity apply to the adoption of PowerFlarm? Surely we don't need everyone to adopt PowerFlarm to take a big bite out of mid-airs. When will competition pilots gain Herd Immunity from mid-airs? |
#74
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Pilots with weakening vision - please install Powerflarm
On Friday, July 12, 2013 8:15:27 PM UTC-6, son_of_flubber wrote:
Here's another question for our experts in statistics (and epidemiology). Have you ever heard of 'Herd Immunity'? The idea is that you don't have to vaccinate everyone in order to stop the spread of a person-to-person communicable disease (for example, the flu). So a midair seems to be a lot like a person-to-person communicable disease. Does Herd Immunity apply to the adoption of PowerFlarm? Surely we don't need everyone to adopt PowerFlarm to take a big bite out of mid-airs. When will competition pilots gain Herd Immunity from mid-airs? Addressing your two last posts. Is there a herd immunity? Not unless mid-airs are contagious. We have pretty good idea of the mid-air risk based on mid-air collision and number of flight data for the last 30 years without PF. In 30 more years, we'll have pretty good data with PF so then we can make a really good statistical statement on how effective PF is. Meanwhile, I take it on faith that the enhanced situational awareness afforded by PF is a very good thing especially in contests - and Texas. Then there's an economic question of whether spending roughly $2000 to equip each of about 3500 gliders with PF is a sum that might be better spent elsewhere if the only goal is to minimize the overall number of serious accidents or the possibility of one really catastrophic glider-airliner mid-air that adversely impacts the whole sport. Some would suggest transponders are a better overall option in that case. It is probably fair to say if you typically fly in airspace with a high density of airplane traffic, get a transponder. If you mainly fly in high density glider traffic, get PF. If both, get both. If neither, it's probably OK to wait for better technology. My guess is that when ADS-B is fully rolled out it will be the better option. |
#75
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Pilots with weakening vision - please install Powerflarm
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