RUSSIAN WAR PLANES IN ASIA

Ready, Aim, Acquire
Why Moscow is selling advanced weapons to Asian friends -- and foes
By Robin Ajello


--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Russia's defense minister has a long list of potential enemies. Near
the top, right after the West, come various Asian nations, including
Japan and China, that Gen. Igor Rodionov considers "sources of
military danger." Hang on General. If Moscow is so worried, why is it
selling Beijing advanced warplanes, destroyers and missiles? And why,
for that matter, is South Korea buying Russian tanks, missiles and
armored personnel carriers, instead of getting them from the U.S., its
ally and protector?
As we shall see, the underlying reasons are various and complex. They
make a mockery of the so-called peace dividend that policy makers
predicted when the Cold War ended six years ago. They make clear that
for the most part ideology (save capitalism) no longer determines who
gets what Russian weapon. Quite simply, Russia, already the
second-largest arms exporter on the planet after the U.S., aims to
become No. 1 again. Right now it is selling about $3 billion worth of
weapons a year; by 2000 it hopes to sell three times that. Moscow's
hunger for foreign exchange is one reason for the big push. Russian
leaders also crave the global clout they once wielded, and they can
win friends and influence people by flogging weapons.

To achieve its ends, Russia will have to sell a lot of hardware to
China, India and the nations of East Asia. Concerns about regional
security and weapons proliferation are being brushed aside as America
and Russia go head-to-head in markets that Western arms makers have
long considered their own. "There is a war raging in the weaponry
export markets," says Oleg Sidorenko, deputy director of
Rosvooruzheniye, the behemoth that Russia set up in 1993 to market
weapons to the world. "No methods are disdained in this war."

He is not kidding. When the Soviet Union collapsed, Russian arms
makers found themselves at a serious disadvantage. They couldn't hope
to fulfill the menacing image the Pentagon had fashioned for them
during the Cold War. Not with reports of spare parts shortages, supply
bottlenecks and red tape. Meanwhile, the U.S. had just trounced the
Russian-armed Iraqis in what was a virtual ad campaign for America's
smart war toys.

Where did that leave the Russians? With a lot of catching up to do.
Moscow knew some of its weapons systems could match or better Western
ones. But how to prove it? Suddenly, after years of relying on orders
from the military or from allies like India and Vietnam, state arms
makers found themselves on a crash course in marketing. Before long,
American weapons merchants were griping about Russian arms dealers
shadowing them on business trips. Russian generals ground their teeth
as the renowned Sukhoi Design Bureau sold rides in its fighters to
thrill-seekers for up to $18,000 a crack, a ploy to fill the
plane-maker's coffers and promote the jets.

Once-top-secret weapons began appearing at arms trade shows. Compared
to Western booths, the Russian displays were dowdy, the food limited
to piroshki meat pies flown in from Moscow. But the Russians had one
thing their competitors did not: big bang for small money. Their
weapons were selling for half the price of Western arms; Moscow was
desperate for foreign exchange and Russia's new capitalists often
didn't know how much to charge.

The Russians badly needed that breakthrough Asian sale. It came in
1992 when Beijing ordered the first of successive batches of Su-27
fighters from the Sukhoi Design Bureau. For China, the purchase opened
the door to a cornucopia of Russian weapons systems that Beijing
requires to modernize its rickety, 1960s-era military. Battle tanks,
military transport planes and air-defense missile systems soon
followed.

After Chinese premier Li Peng's landmark visit to Moscow in December,
Beijing ordered two Sovremenny- class destroyers. Once they join the
Chinese fleet, perhaps within three years, the ships could skew the
naval balance in the South China Sea, owing to sea-skimming Sunburn
missiles that can tear a warship in two. The acquisition marks a
significant step towards building China's dream blue-water navy.

To further project its power, Beijing bought two Kilo-class subs,
ordered another pair and may be in the market for at least 10 more.
The Kilo can sow mines without surfacing, just the thing to impose a
blockade on, say, Taiwan. Beijing is also eager to get its hands on
the Su-30, an Su-27 that has been souped up for naval warfare.

It is understandable why Russia is selling a lot of weapons to China
and, for that matter, India, which last month ordered 40 Su-30
fighters. Both built their armed forces around Russian technology. But
so long as Delhi and Beijing dominate Moscow's order books, its arms
exports will remain relatively flat. So Russian arms makers are
focusing on new markets, such as Southeast Asia, where the U.S. has
long been the main player. Russia's big push into the region paid
dividends in 1995 when Malaysia ordered 18 MiG-29 fighters. For Kuala
Lumpur the decision was simple: MiGs cost half the price of Western
fighters.

"This isn't a poke in the eye for the U.S. in military terms," says a
Western military analyst in Moscow. "It is the simple brutal economics
of competition." And it is getting brutal out there. Some governments
are prepared to play America against Russia to get the weapons they
want. Thailand did.

Bangkok was in the market for $600 million worth of U.S. F-18 fighters
and wanted them equipped with missiles that can down an enemy plane up
to 50 kilometers away. The Thais were adamant, perhaps because the
Malaysians hope to get a comparable Russian missile to go with their
MiGs. The Clinton administration balked because selling the rocket to
the Thais could trigger missile envy. That's a shame, said the Thais.
We'll have to buy the MiG-29 instead. They were bluffing, but the U.S.
relented. Now Thailand will have better air-to-air missiles than most
of its neighbors. It doesn't take a rocket scientist to see the
implications.

Washington beats the anti-proliferation drum louder than most --
though it has a history of selling weapons to friends that become
foes. Russia reckons it has nothing to lose by selling weapons to
small Southeast Asian nations. "Conveniently," says a Russian aviation
executive, "these countries can't threaten Russian security." Yes, but
what about China? On that front, Moscow is taking a gamble, a coin-
toss that speaks as much to its long-term strategic plans as it does
to filthy lucre.

When top officials from both nations met recently, they signed a
memorandum of understanding for closer military cooperation.
Translation: technology transfer. China will soon start building Su-27
fighters under license. Analysts believe there are perhaps 1,000
Russian advisers on the ground in China, providing logistics and
maintenance support for weapons systems acquired from Moscow. And
Chinese military officers and engineers are visiting Russia on a
regular basis.

Why do Beijing and Moscow seem to be getting cozy again after all this
time? The same reason they did befo to provide a counter-balance to
American might, especially given the expected eastward expansion of
NATO right up to Russia's borders.

The long-term implications of the new Sino-Russian strategic
partnership are already ringing alarm bells across the Pacific. Says
Ross H. Munro, co-author of the provocative book The Coming Conflict
with China to be published in America this month: "There is no
question in China that the U.S. is a long-term adversary. In 1995 and
1996 China overreacted over Taiwan. It's now cooling off its actions
and rhetoric, while accelerating its military build-up."

Moscow has also renewed its strategic partnership with India, which
lapsed after the collapse of the Soviet Union. The new arrangement has
come in time to stop a brief flirtation between Russian arms suppliers
and India's nemesis Pakistan.

"Russia's policies in Asia -- particularly its future relationship
with China and Japan -- are significant uncertainties in the regional
security equation," says Paul Dibb, who advises the Australian
government on military matters. "Widespread access to advanced Russian
military technology by China could rapidly undermine the balance of
power in the whole region."

The Russians are not fools, of course. They aren't about to hand
Beijing military technology that could boomerang back on them. Yury
Baturin, a former rocket scientist who runs the Kremlin's Defense
Council, told Asiaweek that Moscow is extremely careful about what it
sells to whom. The Chinese have tried to get their hands on the
advanced Su-35 fighter-bomber and the Tu-22M long-range bomber, only
to be firmly rebuffed. So while Russia's newly privatizing arms
industry will do almost anything to make a buck, the Kremlin will not
countenance sensitive technology falling into the wrong hands -- as
the defense minister made plain with his list of potential foes.

-- With reporting by Anthony Davis/Bangkok, David Hsieh/Beijing, Roger
Mitton/Kuala Lumpur and John Helmer/Moscow

"James" wrote in message
m...
Ready, Aim, Acquire
Why Moscow is selling advanced weapons to Asian friends -- and foes
(snip)

Quite simply, Russia, already the
second-largest arms exporter on the planet after the U.S., aims to
become No. 1 again.

(snip)

1) When was Russia ever no 1? If the answer is 'never' surely the 'again'
here is wrong...

2) Why is it taken for granted that it is ok and natural for the US to be
the world's no 1 arms dealer, but dangerous for Russia to aspire to be?

3) Would this post qualify as a troll?

4) Is it in breach of copyright?

John

"John Mullen" wrote in message
...
"James" wrote in message
m...
Ready, Aim, Acquire
Why Moscow is selling advanced weapons to Asian friends -- and foes
(snip)

Quite simply, Russia, already the
second-largest arms exporter on the planet after the U.S., aims to
become No. 1 again.

(snip)

1) When was Russia ever no 1? If the answer is 'never' surely the 'again'
here is wrong...


I dont have the figures in front of me but during the period
1948-1960 the Soviets equipped the armies of the Warsaw pact,
DPRK and China so I wouldnt be at all surprised if they had
been the largest arms exporter of that time.

Keith