Pakistan May Have al-Qaida's No. 2 Man Surrounded

Place your bets. Will Ayman al-Zawahri be captured alive? Or will he die the
death of a glorious jihadi martyr? I'll bet he dies....... the Pakistanis
hunting him probably have strict orders to kill him so he can't talk about
Pakistan's relations with both the Taliban and Al-Qaeda.
Dave

WANA, Pakistan (March 18) - Pakistani troops believe they have surrounded
al-Qaida No. 2 Ayman al-Zawahri in an operation near the Afghan border, three
senior Pakistani officials said Thursday.

The officials told The Associated Press that intelligence indicated the
Egyptian-born al-Zawahri, Osama bin Laden's top deputy, has been cornered in an
operation. One intelligence official said captured fighters said al-Zawahri had
been wounded.

The operation began Tuesday in South Waziristan with hundreds of troops and
paramilitary rangers, who fired artillery and used helicopter gunships to
attack dug-in al-Qaida fighters. Dozens of fighters were killed and 18 were
captured, the intelligence official said.

''We have been receiving intelligence and information from our agents who are
working in the tribal areas that al-Zawahri could be among the people hiding
there,'' a military official said. ''All of our efforts are to capture him.''

An intelligence official and senior politician in President Gen. Pervez
Musharraf's government both confirmed the account. All spoke on condition of
anonymity.

The United States has offered a $25 million reward for information leading to
al-Zawahri's capture.

Pakistani officials said they do not have any intelligence indicating that bin
Laden is with al-Zawahri. In the past, intelligence officials have speculated
that the two are traveling together, and bin Laden and al-Zawahri appeared
together in video tapes released shortly after the Sept. 11 attacks.

In an interview with CNN, Musharraf said he had spoken with the commander of
Pakistani troops in the region. He said the commander reported ''fierce
resistance'' from a group of fighters entrenched in fort-like buildings and
that there were indications that a senior figure was surrounded.

''He's reasonably sure there's a high-value target there,'' Musharraf said.

Musharraf said the area was being ''pounded'' by artillery.

Speaking on the condition of anonymity, a U.S. counterterrorism official said:
''It would appear that the Pakistanis have surrounded a very senior al-Qaida
figure, but at this point we are not certain who it is.''

The Pakistani military has been pursuing 100 tribal leaders that authorities
want to roll into their efforts to hunt al-Qaida in the Waziristan frontier. So
far, about two-thirds have said they would provide information and turn over
any Islamic militants in their territories, American defense officials said on
condition of anonymity.

The others are facing destruction of their homes by the hands of Pakistani
military, officials said.

The Pakistanis also are targeting Arabs and other foreigners who settled in the
tribal regions shortly after the Afghan-Soviet war in the 1980s, the officials
said. While some veterans of the war formed the nucleus of al-Qaida, others put
down roots in Pakistan.

It is believed that some of these veterans are providing a support network for
bin Laden and his followers in the region, officials said.

U.S. officials say they are watching to see if the Pakistani actions send
militant fighters moving back to Afghanistan, where U.S. troops operate freely.

Hundreds of Pakistani troops have moved into three South Waziristan towns -
Azam Warsak, Shin Warsak and Kaloosha - against entrenched positions.

''They are not coming out in spite of the fact that we pounded them with
artillery,'' Musharraf told CNN.

Early morning calls from mosques warned residents in Azam Warsak, Shin Warsak
and Kaloosha to leave the area, apparently to give the troops more room to
operate.

''They asked locals, women and children, to move out, which many did. And then
they shot upon the area, with ... helicopters also,'' Musharraf told CNN.

At least 41 people - including 15 soldiers and 26 suspected militants - were
killed Tuesday in fighting in the area, and army spokesman Gen. Shaukat Sultan
said there were an unknown number of casualties in continued action Thursday.

The military said Thursday that most of those killed were foreigners, but it
did not give their nationalities and acknowledged that only two bodies had been
recovered.

The two dead were believed to be a Chechen and someone of Middle Eastern
origin, a military official said on condition of anonymity.

The news came the same day as Secretary of State Colin Powell announced in
Islamabad that Washington was bestowing the status of ''major non-NATO ally''
on Pakistan and praised it for its help in the war on terror.

Musharraf, a key ally in the U.S.-led war on terrorism, promised Monday to rid
the tribal areas of foreign terrorists.

Powell, who left the country hours before the announcement, also said he
believed there was evidence that al-Qaida leader bin Laden is still alive and
hiding in the rugged border area.

''No one has seen him, so how can one be sure?'' Powell told Geo TV. ''But he
has certainly given evidence that he is alive and active. But we can't be sure.

''And if he is alive and active, and the evidence suggests that he is, and if
he is in the area of the Pakistan-Afghan border, that's a very difficult area
to find someone who doesn't want to be found.''

A spokesman for the U.S. military in Afghanistan told AP the force hoped
Pakistani soldiers had indeed cornered al-Zawahri, but he had no new
information on the whereabouts of either of the al-Qaida leaders.

''All the senior leaders of al-Qaida will be brought to justice,'' Lt. Col.
Bryan Hilferty said.

Hilferty said a U.S. operation begun March 7 on the Afghan side of the border
was continuing, but he gave no details and said he had no information of any
signs of militants fleeing from Pakistan.

About a dozen helicopters buzzed over Wana, the main town in South Waziristan,
early Thursday, flying toward the operation zone about six miles to the west.

A convoy of army trucks carrying soldiers also passed Wana hours before the
operation started. Later, mortar explosions were heard in the town.

Interior Ministry spokesman Abdur Rauf Chaudhry said extra troops were
dispatched in anticipation of the new offensive.

He said ''a few'' paramilitary troops are missing from Tuesday's operation in
Kaloosha, with rumors in the region that they may have been kidnapped by the
suspected militants.

The raid has sparked outrage in the tribal region, which fiercely covets its
autonomy and has resisted outside intervention for centuries.

In another part of the tribal region, North Waziristan, attackers launched a
rocket and fired gunshots at a Pakistan army post before dawn Thursday, Sultan
said. Two soldiers died and several were injured in the attack, an intelligence
official told the AP on condition of anonymity.

The official also said assailants threw a hand grenade at an army truck heading
to Miran Shah, North Waziristan's main town, and that several soldiers were
injured. But Sultan denied the incident occurred.


03-18-04 15:12 EST

Dav1936531 wrote:

Place your bets. Will Ayman al-Zawahri be captured alive? Or will he die the
death of a glorious jihadi martyr? I'll bet he dies.......

Oh, come now. Can't we even bet on whether the whole story is a put-up job for
U.S. consumption, or whether they in fact have someone important cornered, or
whether its al-Zawahri, or whether they'll capture/kill him or he/they escape,
etc. Let's not limit ourselves.

Guy

From: Guy Alcala
Date: 3/18/04 4:26 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id:

Oh, come now. Can't we even bet on whether the whole story is a put-up job
for U.S. consumption, or whether they in fact have someone important cornered,
or whether its al-Zawahri, or whether they'll capture/kill him or he/they
escape, etc. Let's not limit ourselves.
Guy

Gen. Mushariff recently pointed to Al-Qaeda as the group behind the recent two
attempts on his life. I think he is probably serious about finding those
responsible. And doing it during the time that Colin Powell is in country makes
him look good...and deals a nice political victory to the Bush administration
to boot.

The fact is that they have probably had a pretty good idea of where he and
Osama have been hiding out for a long time. Money talks in these places, and
they probably have been able to buy pretty well connected (to Al-Qaeda)
informants.
Dave

"Dav1936531" wrote in message
...
From: Guy Alcala
Date: 3/18/04 4:26 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id:

Oh, come now. Can't we even bet on whether the whole story is a put-up
job
for U.S. consumption, or whether they in fact have someone important
cornered,
or whether its al-Zawahri, or whether they'll capture/kill him or he/they
escape, etc. Let's not limit ourselves.
Guy

Gen. Mushariff recently pointed to Al-Qaeda as the group behind the recent
two
attempts on his life. I think he is probably serious about finding those
responsible. And doing it during the time that Colin Powell is in country
makes
him look good...and deals a nice political victory to the Bush
administration
to boot.

The fact is that they have probably had a pretty good idea of where he and
Osama have been hiding out for a long time. Money talks in these places,
and
they probably have been able to buy pretty well connected (to Al-Qaeda)
informants.
Dave

The story on all the cable news stations is that the Pakistani forces got
hit pretty hard by some type of artillery and had more than a dozen vehicles
including armor destroyed. This heavy attack has lead to the conclusion that
someone important is there and now surrounded.

Dav1936531 wrote:

From: Guy Alcala
Date: 3/18/04 4:26 PM Eastern Standard Time
Message-id:

Oh, come now. Can't we even bet on whether the whole story is a put-up job
for U.S. consumption, or whether they in fact have someone important cornered,
or whether its al-Zawahri, or whether they'll capture/kill him or he/they
escape, etc. Let's not limit ourselves.
Guy

Gen. Mushariff recently pointed to Al-Qaeda as the group behind the recent two
attempts on his life. I think he is probably serious about finding those
responsible. And doing it during the time that Colin Powell is in country makes
him look good...and deals a nice political victory to the Bush administration
to boot.

Sure, he may well be. OTOH, we can't asume that everyone else involved has the
same priorities. Not that I think it is a put-up job, but I think the bet has to
be an option for those who want to take it.

The fact is that they have probably had a pretty good idea of where he and
Osama have been hiding out for a long time. Money talks in these places, and
they probably have been able to buy pretty well connected (to Al-Qaeda)
informants.

The $25 million on OBL's head, and the $25 million on Zawahri's haven't talked up
until now. I see the Congress has doubled Osama's bounty to $50 million. Gee, how
likely is it that there's someone out there in the hills of Afghanistan saying to
themselves, "A measly $25 million?!! Why, I wouldn't even consider betraying him
for a nickel less than $50 mill!"

Guy

On Fri, 19 Mar 2004 04:53:49 GMT, Guy Alcala
wrote:

Dav1936531 wrote:


The $25 million on OBL's head, and the $25 million on Zawahri's haven't talked up
until now. I see the Congress has doubled Osama's bounty to $50 million. Gee, how
likely is it that there's someone out there in the hills of Afghanistan saying to
themselves, "A measly $25 million?!! Why, I wouldn't even consider betraying him
for a nickel less than $50 mill!"

Guy

Among his supporters, you're probably right-- but it will limit his
ability to move out of safe areas where his supporters exist. With a
small bounty, OBL might be able to live in many large cities, trusting
in the people to hide him (or get lost in the crush).
Also, a 50 mil reward allows the informant to move far away and have
money for good security, somethign that will probably be a wise
precaution...

Charles Gray wrote in message
...
Among his supporters, you're probably right-- but it will limit his
ability to move out of safe areas where his supporters exist. With a
small bounty, OBL might be able to live in many large cities, trusting
in the people to hide him (or get lost in the crush).
Also, a 50 mil reward allows the informant to move far away and have
money for good security, somethign that will probably be a wise
precaution...


Then OBL's only safe areas may be Paris and San Francisco.

--
Scott
--------
Instead of vowing to fight the people who killed their fellow citizens,
the Spanish decided to vote with al-Qaida on the war. A murdering
terrorist organization said, "Jump!" and an entire country answered,
"How high?" -- Ann Coulter

Charles Gray wrote:

On Fri, 19 Mar 2004 04:53:49 GMT, Guy Alcala
wrote:

Dav1936531 wrote:


The $25 million on OBL's head, and the $25 million on Zawahri's haven't talked up
until now. I see the Congress has doubled Osama's bounty to $50 million. Gee, how
likely is it that there's someone out there in the hills of Afghanistan saying to
themselves, "A measly $25 million?!! Why, I wouldn't even consider betraying him
for a nickel less than $50 mill!"

Guy

Among his supporters, you're probably right-- but it will limit his
ability to move out of safe areas where his supporters exist. With a
small bounty, OBL might be able to live in many large cities, trusting
in the people to hide him (or get lost in the crush).

You think $25 million is a SMALL bounty?!?! H'mmm. You're really Bill Gates, and I
claim my 5 pounds ;-)

Also, a 50 mil reward allows the informant to move far away and have
money for good security, somethign that will probably be a wise
precaution...

Yeah, I can just see the average Afghan villager, eking out his existence tending his
goats and his small plot of land, saying to himself, "I just don't see _how_ I could
afford to move away and live elsewhere for _only_ $25 million; I'd need _at least_
another $25 million just for cabfare and tips" ;-)

Guy

Guy Alcala wrote:

The $25 million on OBL's head, and the $25 million on Zawahri's haven't talked up
until now. I see the Congress has doubled Osama's bounty to $50 million. Gee, how
likely is it that there's someone out there in the hills of Afghanistan saying to
themselves, "A measly $25 million?!! Why, I wouldn't even consider betraying him
for a nickel less than $50 mill!"

I think it might actually send a more potent message to start
*lowering* the reward!

For people in the area, the ones in the know, there really isn't
much difference between $50M, $25M, $10M, $5M. It's an
unimaginably large amount of money.

Raising the reward seems to imply the US is failing. Something
even OBL haters might enjoy seeing. Lowering the reward sends
a message that the US is growing more stronger and more
confident in countering him.

Maybe not, but it might have some positive psychological effect.


SMH

Stephen Harding wrote:

Guy Alcala wrote:

The $25 million on OBL's head, and the $25 million on Zawahri's haven't talked up
until now. I see the Congress has doubled Osama's bounty to $50 million. Gee, how
likely is it that there's someone out there in the hills of Afghanistan saying to
themselves, "A measly $25 million?!! Why, I wouldn't even consider betraying him
for a nickel less than $50 mill!"

I think it might actually send a more potent message to start
*lowering* the reward!

For people in the area, the ones in the know, there really isn't
much difference between $50M, $25M, $10M, $5M. It's an
unimaginably large amount of money.

Raising the reward seems to imply the US is failing. Something
even OBL haters might enjoy seeing. Lowering the reward sends
a message that the US is growing more stronger and more
confident in countering him.

Maybe not, but it might have some positive psychological effect.


SMH

Could be...might make some fence sitters think, "Damn, I better
make hay while the sun shines"
--

-Gord.