The end of the Naval Air Reserves???

Because of the lack of adversary units, (and the fact that in the last 3
"wars" that there was no credible air-to-air threat) the case will be made
that air-to-air training syllabi can be decreased and/or civilian units
flying CAT III aircraft will be brought in to augment the VFC's. This
"cart
before the horse" mentality will certainly work in the short term, but
will
leave Naval aviators ill-prepared for conflicts involving better equipped
and more serious forces.

From my amateur perspective, I'd say you nailed it elegantly and eloquently.
Some guys at the top seem to be suffering from the delusion that these
latest wars were high-intensity conflicts. Certainly, as you know infinitely
better than I do, there were a huge number of sorties and flight hours, but
I fear that the next one might be quite different.

I'd say high-intensity would be when you have a foe really trying to get his
fangs in your throat, when the planning and scenarios last about half an
hour before you get into crisis management (and stay there till the very
end), and you start getting some punches back. And it does not even need to
be more than what geopolitically amounts to a skirmish.

Lets say that something starts some serious exchange of fire in the Taiwan
straits. The CV battle group that's never far from there may be caught in
that for a few days while some serious worldwide diplomacy unravels it. And
the state and score of the disengaging CV will have monumental political
repercussions both in there and back at home.

For me, professional, in-house adversary work always meant you will fight
the way you train, and if you train really seriously, you'll be prepared.
Otherwise you'll have to get over the learning curve amidst the bullets and
the rockets, which a) takes time and b) is bloody. And you may very well not
have the a), and b) might be more than we can manage in the practical world.
Can the USN take a couple of Silkworms on a couple of CVs, and have them
limp home with some serious CVW losses and still be in a situation where it
is able to function? And I'm talking about the homefront in here, not about
the courage and dedication of the service members.

To have people train with "amateurs" for Gulf War III, makes me very
uneasy...
_____________
José Herculano