accident reports updated

I got the following message from Jim Herd today and, since he doesn't
post to RAS and this was important information, he said it would be OK
for me to post in his stead. I'll add some comments that I sent him as
the first reply on this thread:

On Apr 5, 2009, at 10:48 PM, Jim Herd wrote:

Pilots and Friends of Geoff,

Click on the links below to read the final NTSB report on Geoff’s
accident. Don’t worry, it isn’t gruesome. The basic conclusion is that
unanticipated extreme turbulence got him. I think the report is
accurate, but maybe that’s because I helped the NTSB guy with his
work.

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief2.asp?...FA231& akey=1

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/GenPDF.asp?...07FA231&rpt=fi

Incidentally, the parallels between Geoff’s accident and Steve
Fossett’s are uncanny. They were just 3 weeks and 50 miles apart, at
the same altitude with similar winds and gnarly mountains. Both were
flying quite close to terrain, and both were hit by unexpected extreme
turbulence caused by a combination of wind, terrain, and thermal
activity. The entire aviation community around the world needs to
learn something from these events – especially Geoff accident because
his expertise was as good as anyone and he had a helluva lot of local
knowledge. The message I have learned is to stay further away from
terrain, especially when downwind of terrain. We all need to increase
our safety margins.

So I think this report marks the end of official action on the
accident. Even with Geoff’s extreme knowledge and experience, and the
certainty that he knew turbulence would be very likely in that area
and he would have known how to deal with it, it seems a piece of
turbulence came along that exceeded his expectations and reached out
and grabbed him.R.I.P.

Please forward this to anyone you choose.

Cheers,

Jim Herd

P.S. Here is the Fossett accident report for your reference, and BTW,
the lead NTSB investigator for Fossett is the wife of the guy who
investigated Geoff:
http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/GenPDF.asp?...07FA277&rpt=fa

Here's what I sent to Jim in response to his message above:

Both accidents seem to fit very well with what I call "99.9% safe
maneuvers" -- things we can do without event many, many times, which
then build up a confidence in our skill. But that's really complacency
masquerading as confidence. The danger is that a combination of events
then come together at just the wrong time, turning an otherwise normal
and "safe" maneuver into a fatal one. "Unusual" turbulence, wind, etc.
is a good indicator of the one-chance-in-a-thousand that can kill even
experienced pilots like Geoff or Steve. Unusual isn't the same as
impossible.

I assume you've seen my PASCO talk on this subject, but if not it's at

http://www-ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/...2007_talk.html

and an extension to an even worse 99.9% safe maneuver is at

http://nuclearrisk.org/soaring_article.php

Thanks again for your efforts to make these dangers better known
within our community.

Martin Hellman

Hellman wrote:
Here's what I sent to Jim in response to his message above:

Both accidents seem to fit very well with what I call "99.9% safe
maneuvers" -- things we can do without event many, many times, which
then build up a confidence in our skill. But that's really complacency
masquerading as confidence. The danger is that a combination of events
then come together at just the wrong time, turning an otherwise normal
and "safe" maneuver into a fatal one. "Unusual" turbulence, wind, etc.
is a good indicator of the one-chance-in-a-thousand that can kill even
experienced pilots like Geoff or Steve. Unusual isn't the same as
impossible.

Are coordinates of the crash site available? I'd like to take a close
look at the upwind terrain, since I'm not familiar with the area.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA
* Change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

* "Transponders in Sailplanes" http://tinyurl.com/y739x4
* Sections on Mode S, TPAS, ADS-B, Flarm, more

* "A Guide to Self-launching Sailplane Operation" at www.motorglider.org

On Apr 7, 10:36 am, Eric Greenwell wrote:
Are coordinates of the crash site available? I'd like to take a close
look at the upwind terrain, since I'm not familiar with the area.

I didn't have them, but Jim Herd kindly provided them:

Geoff Loyns Crash Site:
37°50'47.08"N 118°23'10.27"W

Steve Fossett Crash Site:
North – 37 degrees 40.061 minutes
West – 119 degrees 07.997 minutes

After getting them from Jim, I entered "Steve Fossett Crash Site" into
Google Maps search box and it showed the right location. I should have
tried that first. It's an area I've flown over (though not near ground
level!) often and I have a number of pictures of the site at

http://www-ee.stanford.edu/~hellman/...uth/index.html

The third picture (not including the SeeYou trace) includes the crash
site, which is about 1.5 miles east of Minaret Lake, with that lake
being near the left hand edge of the picture, slightly above center --
as noted in the caption just below the picture.

Geoff's crash site is not indexed by Google.

Martin

To add to my last post, I just located Geoff's crash site and it's
about a mile west of Boundary Peak (13,140' MSL) in the White
Mountains. Again an area I've flown over frequently, and one where
there is frequent, strong turbulence.

I appreciate all folks who post to promote discussions in
review of accident situations, and encourage other pilots to consider
how to avoid similar exposure or actions in their own flying, by
reviewing accident synopses. I have given a few presentations at
SSA conventions and regional or local soaring gatherings specifically
reviewing soaring accidents -- NOT to reach conclusions, but to
evaluate
the multitude of POSSIBILITIES that could have occurred.

I find many accident evaluations woefully inadequate, and have acted
to support NTSB in several situations both close and far, with
technical
resources and references.

It is emotionally simple to conclude, "the weather got him." Any him.

We weren't there; many sites are remote from "local" weather recording
systems; in the Western states, weather stations operate in separate
basins or localized systems. Mountain chains isolate weather into
discreet patterns in often channelized flow. Yet, Sierra or Owens
Valley
pilots readily report that winds at or above ridgeline are often
distinctly
different than below ridgelines.

I find it too simplistic to conclude that both Geoff and Steve
expereinced
"similar" weather simply because they impacted within 50 miles and
30 days of each other. I have seen days that offer great soaring
or scary thunderstorms on those mountains within five miles at
any given moment. Personal courseline selection determines safe
or scary flight conditions.

I find it difficult to believe that Steve would encounter "scary winds
and conditions" on a scenic solo flight which ended
at 9:30 A.M. A glider pilot who launched from and returned to Cal
City
on that day flew within ten miles of Steve's impact, at about 3:30
pm.
It was a 'normal' summer day, no extreme OD, no massive cu-nims,
no wave. Would Steve go looking at gorgeous terrain? Sure.
We all love those vistas. It's breathtaking scenery.

Would Geoff knowingly fly into 'extreme turbulence'? Not based on the
descriptions given by his flying friends. I don't have access to
Geoff's
flight trace to be able to say that he was flying "close to
terrain."
Maybe Jim or others did have access to a flight file. I was bemused
by his last reported altitude and location related to the impact
location.
It seemed a short way flown for a big altitude loss. But that was
all based on hear-say, not a trace.

I know there was no log file for Fossett. So we cannot say he was
"close to terrain". No one knows for sure. We only know he struck
terrain at high speed, based on the site and wreckage.

I agree with Jim and Martin -- we should encourage establishing and
heeding personal margins from terrain based on expereince, recency,
and conditions. Leave a little extra room, for friends and loved
ones.
Big weather and big terrain should encourage bigger margins of
terrain separation.

What else COULD have happened? Without the benefit of flight log
files? Pretty simply - my first bet would be pilot incapacitation.
That would not have been found (and continues to not be found),
in many soaring accidents. Where a coroner gets to make an
evaluation, they take the expedient and simple answer - blunt force
trauma was cause of death. To look for, or find, any prior medical
event evidence of stroke or an eschemic event is difficult and/or
beyond the scope of what the autopsy 'needs' to find.

NTSB doesn't get to 'tell' a county employee how to do their job.
Where a sole decedent involves no injury or damage to others,
why spend county dollars and work hard for a messier answer?
The bereaved usually only want a fast and simple answer.

So - what possibilities remain for the NTSB?
"Strange weather" can always be sold to the public.
No one stood there and watched, no system recorded
'local' weather, so the report writer gets off simply. No one can
prove them wrong. They have no conclusive information for
another option. They aren't allowed to speculate.

But - these were both healthy guys, you exhort. Yep.
So was Jim Fixx, before he dropped in his tracks. Hug the
ones you love, as we don't know when we'll leave.

I would prefer that if log files existed for accident flights,
they be published as part of the public record. Then we would
be free to evaluate the trace and come to our own conclusions.
Personally, in two fatal flight records I have seen,
one pilot made a mistake and turned toward terrain with
inadequate separation, and one trace showed apparent
incapacitation. Neither answer was easy for family.

I think if we all wish to help each other and ourselves in this
spring season, we should choose to review accident reports
and ask -- what could have happened?
Could I avoid being in that situation?
Am I evading looking at that accident as being pertinent to me,
due to --
"it's a different glider/different weather than home" (transference)
"I'm a better pilot, I'm more careful" (macho/ego)
"I won't fly in that kind of weather/terrain/racing" (rationalization)
"I'm too upset to think about my lost friend" (flight).

Think about flying with a CFI or friend and have them
review your skills before this season. Soaring Safety
Foundation calls this the First Flight program, and I now have
several private owner pilots come to us for a spring brush up.
They decided they'd rather pay a few hundred bucks to an FBO,
than a few thousand for a repair bill and a scare in the current
season.

Best wishes for safe flying in 2009 for all,

Cindy B



On Apr 6, 8:48*pm, Hellman wrote:
I got the following message from Jim Herd today
SNIP
On Apr 5, 2009, at 10:48 PM, Jim Herd wrote:

Pilots and Friends of Geoff,
SNIP

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief2.asp?...3&ntsbno=SEA07....

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/GenPDF.asp?...07FA231&rpt=fi

Incidentally, the parallels between Geoff’s accident and Steve
Fossett’s are uncanny. They were just 3 weeks and 50 miles apart, at
the same altitude with similar winds and gnarly mountains. Both were
flying quite close to terrain, and both were hit by unexpected extreme
turbulence caused by a combination of wind, terrain, and thermal
activity.

SNIP
The message I have learned is to stay further away from
terrain, especially when downwind of terrain. We all need to increase
our safety margins.

On Apr 11, 12:17*am, CindyASK wrote:
I find it too simplistic to conclude that both Geoff and Steve
expereinced "similar" weather simply because they impacted within 50 miles and
30 days of each other. *...
I find it difficult to believe that Steve would encounter "scary winds
and conditions" on a scenic solo flight which ended
at 9:30 A.M. *

I'd like to thank Cindy for her post, particularly for the key part in
terms of increasing soaring safety: "I agree with Jim and Martin -- we
should encourage establishing and heeding personal margins from
terrain based on expereince, recency, and conditions. Leave a little
extra room, for friends and loved ones. Big weather and big terrain
should encourage bigger margins of terrain separation."

Cindy, Jim and I have carried on a conversation that brought out some
additional information which Cindy did not take into account from the
updated NTSB reports

http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/brief2.asp?...3&ntsbno=SEA07....
http://www.ntsb.gov/ntsb/GenPDF.asp?...07FA231&rpt=fi

and which therefore should be related here. In particular, those
reports indicate that strong, gusty winds and turbulence played a part
in both accidents. There is a lot more relevant data in both NTSB
reports, but I'll let the interested reader get it straight from the
NTSB's mouth.

Martin

I could not find the accident report on Joe Finley's crash. Can anyone point me to the report (yes I did a query on NTSB even one for all fatal glider accidents during the time frame and still could not find).

Anyone of the coordinates of the accident site?

Thanks much

http://www.ntsb.gov/_layouts/ntsb.av...LA215 &akey=1

On Monday, January 18, 2016 at 12:48:55 PM UTC-7, Jonathan St. Cloud wrote:
I could not find the accident report on Joe Finley's crash. Can anyone point me to the report (yes I did a query on NTSB even one for all fatal glider accidents during the time frame and still could not find).

Anyone of the coordinates of the accident site?

Thanks much

Joe Findley? NTSB Database. Search 7/4/2002 to 7/31/2002, glider, fatal, nevada. The report is there.