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Put your money where the risk is



 
 
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  #81  
Old December 1st 19, 12:18 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Branko Stojkovic
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Default Put your money where the risk is

Tom,

I think we are in agreement. It's just that sometimes the debate on RAS gets a bit heated, at least for my taste. To quote Ursula Le Guin: The soundest fact may fail or prevail in the style of its telling.

Branko
XYU
  #82  
Old December 1st 19, 01:20 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Default Put your money where the risk is

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 3:18:55 PM UTC-8, Branko Stojkovic wrote:
Tom,

I think we are in agreement. It's just that sometimes the debate on RAS gets a bit heated, at least for my taste. To quote Ursula Le Guin: The soundest fact may fail or prevail in the style of its telling.

Branko
XYU


Branko,

You right-on there; I thought I was just making a simple observation that all could agree with, then it degenerated to the point that people were actually defending poor airmanship and cheering for luck. Go figure...

Tom
  #83  
Old December 1st 19, 01:58 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Put your money where the risk is

Actually we were acknowledging luck as a factor in glider fatalities and suggesting that denial and overconfidence are dangerous as well.
Dale
  #84  
Old December 1st 19, 03:11 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Default Put your money where the risk is

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 4:58:27 PM UTC-8, wrote:
Actually we were acknowledging luck as a factor in glider fatalities and suggesting that denial and overconfidence are dangerous as well.
Dale


....all of which fall into the category of poor airmanship (assuming you are depending upon "luck" for a satisfactory outcome), and are preventable. This should be good news for those of us concerned about our safety. Many power accidents are the result of "get-home-itis" which is bad prioritizing of outcomes.

Tom
  #85  
Old December 1st 19, 04:49 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Put your money where the risk is

...all of which fall into the category of poor airmanship (assuming you are depending upon "luck" for a satisfactory outcome), and are preventable.

OK, Tom, this is from one of your previous posts in this thread:

I honestly don't understand the rational here. It seems that the majority of you think you are alive only by luck! I can assure you that that isn't the case. You can't train a pilot to be lucky, only skilled. When someone once told me that I was lucky in life, I replied "I make my own luck."

Tom

Make up your effin' mind.



  #86  
Old December 1st 19, 05:47 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Default Put your money where the risk is

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 7:49:54 PM UTC-8, wrote:
...all of which fall into the category of poor airmanship (assuming you are depending upon "luck" for a satisfactory outcome), and are preventable..


OK, Tom, this is from one of your previous posts in this thread:

I honestly don't understand the rational here. It seems that the majority of you think you are alive only by luck! I can assure you that that isn't the case. You can't train a pilot to be lucky, only skilled. When someone once told me that I was lucky in life, I replied "I make my own luck."

Tom

Make up your effin' mind.


Mark,

I did explain that, but let's try again. You can make your own luck by inspecting potential landing fields from the ground, rather than from 5,000 ft. You can make your own luck by reviewing all NOTAMs in the area and knowing what runways are out of service. You can make your own luck by clearing all turns rather than depending upon other aircraft to stay out of your way. You can make your own luck by adding extra altitude (say 25%) to the required glide over unlandable terrain. You can make your own luck carefully inspecting your glider prior to each flight. You can make your own luck by monitoring weather reports while flying and landing at an alternate airport. I do all of these and more - you should to.

It gets down to increasing the odds of a successful outcome. I use the same principal in all aspects of my life. I found out that I had prostate cancer, but only after insisting on tests (PSA and a biopsy) to prove it one way or the other. After finding out that I had it, I concluded that the upside (living) outweighed the downside of a radical prostatectomy, so I had it removed and am cancer free after 3+ years. It did cost me one season of flying, but that was a reasonable trade-off. I definitely "made my own luck" on that one!

Tom
  #87  
Old December 1st 19, 07:30 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
[email protected]
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Default Put your money where the risk is

Tom,
It’s semantics my friend. “Luck (by definition) is good or bad fortune brought about by chance and not by ones own actions”. So one cannot “make ones own luck”. I get what you’re saying and, of course, agree that good airmanship and good judgment increase safety absolutely.
Dale
  #88  
Old December 1st 19, 08:14 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Chris Behm
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Default Put your money where the risk is

Geeze, what the heck happened to the original posters topic?
I thought he wanted to start a "swear jar" for risky pilot decisions.
Happy and safe Holidays all of you.

Kind Regards,
Target
  #89  
Old December 1st 19, 08:26 AM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
2G
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Default Put your money where the risk is

On Saturday, November 30, 2019 at 10:30:21 PM UTC-8, wrote:
Tom,
It’s semantics my friend. “Luck (by definition) is good or bad fortune brought about by chance and not by ones own actions”.. So one cannot “make ones own luck”. I get what you’re saying and, of course, agree that good airmanship and good judgment increase safety absolutely.
Dale


Well, that may be your definition, but it isn't mine. Luck will often be affected by your actions; your "luck" of a glider accident will be markedly improved if you don't fly at all. Your "luck" of landing out will be markedly improved if you only fly locally. Your "luck" of a mid-air will be markedly improved if you fly alone, and markedly reduced if you fly in contests. So I don't buy the theory that luck is not affected by "one's own actions." Luck only means that the outcome of a particular event can only be described with a probability function, not that you have no control over that function.

Again, you are over-thinking this - it's pretty basic: do more smart things and fewer dumb things to stay safe.

Tom
  #90  
Old December 1st 19, 02:02 PM posted to rec.aviation.soaring
Tango Eight
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Default Put your money where the risk is

I feel this sudden urge to read Lewis Carroll.

T8
 




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