What have we learned from all this?

On Thursday, April 16, 2020 at 12:29:35 AM UTC-5, Paul B wrote:
On Monday, 13 April 2020 22:20:56 UTC+10, Turkey Vulture wrote:
Bob, after reading many of your posts and threads, you sound like a member of the most privileged class of Americans of all time: A white, male, babyboomer.

Am I wrong?

Well that does not take much of a deduction, does it turkey V?
You have pretty much described every glider pilot. (Apologies to the few that do not fit that profile.)

Cheers

Paul

#WHITE_GUILT_FAIL

On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:56:02 PM UTC-7, wrote:
...Yearly flu has a higher body count. Current king of death, obesity, can't even be bothered to acknowledge the lightweight pretend contender...

Quick update: The US death toll from Covid-19 now stands at about 50,000, and that's in only about 2.5 months since the first US death reported. A bad influenza year might incur 60,000 deaths over 12 months.

--Bob K.

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 9:53:14 PM UTC-4, Bob Kuykendall wrote:
On Sunday, April 5, 2020 at 4:56:02 PM UTC-7, wrote:
...Yearly flu has a higher body count. Current king of death, obesity, can't even be bothered to acknowledge the lightweight pretend contender...

Quick update: The US death toll from Covid-19 now stands at about 50,000, and that's in only about 2.5 months since the first US death reported. A bad influenza year might incur 60,000 deaths over 12 months.

--Bob K.

And inexplicably there have been 50,000 less pneumonia deaths this year then usual.

And inexplicably there have been 50,000 less pneumonia deaths this year then usual.

Do you have a source for this? It seems a suspect number as there are usually fewer than 50,000 deaths per season in the US according to the CDC. A quick look at the CDC website shows their estimates of deaths (which do vary from year to year) a

2014/15 - 51,000
2015/16 - 23,000
2016/17 - 38,000
2017/18 - 61,000
2018/19 - 34,157
2019/20 - 24,000 to 62,000 (still preliminary)

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden...-estimates.htm

On Thursday, April 23, 2020 at 9:53:14 PM UTC-4, Bob Kuykendall wrote:

Quick update: The US death toll from Covid-19 now stands at about 50,000, and that's in only about 2.5 months since the first US death reported. A bad influenza year might incur 60,000 deaths over 12 months.

A lot depends on how we look at these data. If you average out the deaths from all causes by the week, we find that for the last two weeks COVID-19 is right now THE leading cause of death in the US! So it's serious, and certainly far more contagious than cardiovascular disease, cancer, auto accidents, whatever . . .
Jim

And inexplicably there have been 50,000 less pneumonia deaths this year then usual.

Granted, the statistics we have are low quality, and provide room for interpretation. But I don't think there's near enough room to say what happened in NYC looks much like a normal flu season.

I'm amazed that the President managed to find a new low yesterday with the comment about internal disinfectants. Given previous performances, that's a really impressive bar. He seems to instinctively know that the virus needs to be contained, but tragically, his actions seems almost in the reverse direction.

There is a wide range in how an infection presents from didn't notice to death.
The public health folks seem focused on containment. Another strategy might be to reduce the severity of the average case. A mix of these might give us a sustainable standoff we can live with till we have immunity or vaccine.

I wish we had a better understanding of how the virus interacts with the victim to make the range of symptom severities. Areas I'd like to understand better include:

1) What does immunity mean? If your immune system is alert and wise to the virus, then what happens when you get a new viral load? Does the still have to wake up and kill it?

2) Is an exposure event a binary yes or no, or rather a range of how many virus particles, where in your body, and over what time frame.


It's kind of a wild leap of faith to hope that exposure is a range with small exposures leading to mild cases and improved immunity. But if that were so, then leaving home while doing things to lower but not eliminate viral loads might get us back to life. Has anybody seen any science in this direction? Maybe a study of health case workers?

It's a hoax people. https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=239066
If you are waiting for government permission to go back to living, good luck.

On Friday, April 24, 2020 at 5:48:21 PM UTC+1, wrote:
It's a hoax people. https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=239066
If you are waiting for government permission to go back to living, good luck.

So its a hoax but one for which the president is pondering the possibility of injections of disinfectant?

It's a hoax people. https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=239066
If you are waiting for government permission to go back to living, good luck.

I don't see the hoax, but agree waiting on the govt to do something useful seems at best a matter of luck.

Sadly, that URL looked like it had links to data, but didn't seem to.

Looking up the CDC numbers for a typical flu season:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
(For a bad year multiply by 1.5)

Deaths 40k
Hospital 500k
Medical visit 15M
Symptoms 30m
Asymptomatic Not tracked

40k is 122/million US folks

New York has already had 20k deaths, which is 1063/million

Even with counting uncertainties, 1063 looks like a bigger problem than 122?

On Friday, April 24, 2020 at 11:20:33 AM UTC-6, wrote:
It's a hoax people. https://www.market-ticker.org/akcs-www?post=239066
If you are waiting for government permission to go back to living, good luck.

I don't see the hoax, but agree waiting on the govt to do something useful seems at best a matter of luck.

Sadly, that URL looked like it had links to data, but didn't seem to.

Looking up the CDC numbers for a typical flu season:
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
(For a bad year multiply by 1.5)

Deaths 40k
Hospital 500k
Medical visit 15M
Symptoms 30m
Asymptomatic Not tracked

40k is 122/million US folks

New York has already had 20k deaths, which is 1063/million

Even with counting uncertainties, 1063 looks like a bigger problem than 122?

The following seemed sort of strange if the medical doctor reporting was accurate.

A MD on TV was talking about having to label any death that involved Covid 19 as being THE cause of death. He thought it was absurd to do so. He stated that if a person died while having the flu, the cause of death was not reported, by him, as "Influenza" but as what actually killed the person, such as respiratory failure, cardiac arrest etc. So, if this is true, there is probably not going to be an accurate comparison between Influenza deaths and Covid 19 deaths. Seems though that underlining conditions should be reported in both cases.


Mike