Why is Soaring declining

Bob Greenblatt wrote in message ...
At the risk of encouraging him, Lennie's recent post to this thread is the
most logical and reasoned of any of his (and most everyone else's) that I
have read recently. Thanks Leninie, good points.

Welcome. But I still see people blaming lack of instructors or the
2-33 as core of the problem. I don't really care, until common sense
and a change in the higher mucky-mucks attitude happen, it'll continue
to decline. FInancially block most of the middle class, which is also
declining, and all you're going to see is called "death spiral." For
those that can afford the "hi price glass", it's fine, but there's
nothing for the average guy. Even if there was, it would get so much
badmouth from the eggspurts that it would never sell enough to be
successful. IT's what happens when the competitors take control of
the entire activity. Top of the line, or nothing. Nothing is more
often the better choice. Ignoring the eggspurts is always better.

At the risk of encouraging him, Lennie's recent post to this thread is the
most logical and reasoned of any of his (and most everyone else's) that I
have read recently. Thanks Leninie, good points.

I agree with you, Bob. I had almost replied in kind, but thought I might have
been under the influence (I wasnt').

What many people don't get is the concept of fun in this sport. Pretty sad.

But I still see people blaming lack of instructor

Not in my club...the instruction committee kicks them out all the time.

Jim Vincent
CFIG
N483SZ
illspam

Lennie the Lurker wrote:
At the risk of encouraging him, Lennie's recent post to this thread is the
most logical and reasoned of any of his (and most everyone else's) that I
have read recently. Thanks Leninie, good points.

Welcome. But I still see people blaming lack of instructors or the
2-33 as core of the problem. I don't really care, until common sense
and a change in the higher mucky-mucks attitude happen, it'll continue
to decline. FInancially block most of the middle class, which is also
declining, and all you're going to see is called "death spiral." For
those that can afford the "hi price glass", it's fine, but there's
nothing for the average guy. Even if there was, it would get so much
badmouth from the eggspurts that it would never sell enough to be
successful. IT's what happens when the competitors take control of
the entire activity. Top of the line, or nothing. Nothing is more
often the better choice. Ignoring the eggspurts is always better.

Man, I had a helluva great flight in that $10,000 Blanik
L-13 two seater recently. And personally I prefer flying with two
instead of one anyway. The L-13 seems like the closest thing the
sport has to a glider for the "average guy." I taped the things
tail up lovingly, and gave it an average wash, and had a blast with
a fellow licensed glider pilot.

We flew slow, we flew fast, we practiced retracting gear, we went
to 9000 ft, we had a great view, the cockpit was big, and it
was $37 for the two of us. I thought "why don't I get other people
to come with me?" and then the reality set in. It really would
have been too much for their tummies. I mean it. Really that was
it.

I've taken maybe 100 people on first flights, probably half are
close friends and relatives, and none of them would have enjoyed
the 3 hour flight, because of nothing other than the bumps and
circling.

Does this explain declining numbers? No. But I'd like to
point out that getting folks into soaring is more than
just getting them a ride in a glider...
--

------------+
Mark Boyd
Avenal, California, USA

On 13 Apr 2004 22:43:27 -0700, (Lennie the
Lurker) wrote:

right away. Almost every sailplane made today is made with the
competitor in mind, and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell. Which
suits the competitors quite well, and insures that the number of new
people will remain small, and declining.

About 8 years ago, about the only new hang gliders available were
curent competion models and aged designs for beginners and
intermediates. Wills Wing introduced a modern training/novice glider
and soon couldn't keep up with the orders. Other firms took note and
saw similar results. Competition gliders went topless (rigid cross
bars, no upper wires) and the topless race was on. That settled down
and allowed the manufacters to turn their attention to the long
neglected middle performance wings. A US rep of an eastern europen
company convinced them to build a modern intermediate glider that
could glide with the racers when flying 40mph and below, but with
forgiving handling, launch and landing characterists. The result was
an almost instant 2 year order backlog. There are now several such
wings available and I know two guys who sold their comp gliders to buy
one.

All it takes is for one manufacture to have a winner and others will
follow. Given the small size of the market and the uncertainty of
acceptance that may mean putting the financial survival of the firm on
the line. Maybe it will happen when a company has to choose between
inovatation of bankruptcy.

ISoar wrote:
.... that may mean putting the financial survival of the firm on
the line. Maybe it will happen when a company has to choose between
inovatation of bankruptcy.


Yes. Very much like Boeing when it "bet the farm" to develop the 747.

Tony V.

"Tony Verhulst" wrote in message
...
ISoar wrote:
.... that may mean putting the financial survival of the firm on
the line. Maybe it will happen when a company has to choose between
inovatation of bankruptcy.


Yes. Very much like Boeing when it "bet the farm" to develop the 747.

Tony V.

IIRC, Boeing bet the farm on the B-17 (for which they received the German
swept wing research post-WWII which was immediately applied to the B-47),
the 707 (for which they eventually sacrificed winning military contracts for
decades), and the 727 (which really brought new innovations to aircraft
computer design and construction methods, not to mention lower service and
turnaround costs and a 40-year service life). The 747 was the first new
innovative airframe that Boeing didn't bet the farm on. What was really
incredible were the cottage industries that popped up as fourth level
subcontractors in the back of plumbing, electrical, and machine shops around
the area.

When I was young, we raised funds for our church group by selling 'snack'
trays which were the window punch outs from the 707 lines. They already had
the interior vinyl attached and were fairly attractive, plus the process
created a raised lip.

For many years, Boeing had one of the most fantastic surplus yards going.
It's still pretty good, but not like it was.

Frank Whiteley

Lennie the Lurker wrote:
Almost every sailplane made today is made with the
competitor in mind, and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

There is some truth to this claim, but it's more complicated than the
manufacturers "not listening". They know their gliders must do well in
competition (at least the major factories), because potential buyers
think this is important, even though the majority of buyers aren't
serious competitors (note that the majority of the German sailplane
production is now motorized).

There are some "second-tier" gliders, like the reintroduction of the
Glasflugel 304, the Russia AC-4, Apis, and Silent; however, any new
glider that isn't a top-of-the-line glider has some serious competition
in the market: used gliders. Glider last a long time, and the
performance improvements have been slow, so a new glider that isn't
better, just cheaper, has to compete with equal performance, even
cheaper used gliders.

This situation is quite different from the hang glider market, where the
gliders wear out much sooner, and the improvements from year to year are
much greater than they are for sailplanes.

and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

Just join a thread ripping apart the PW5 to see how something "more
pedestrian" might sell. The PW5 actually has sold OK, as did the Russia,
and so that may be why we now have the Apis and Silent (at least in
part). Attitudes are slowly changing, and "moderate" performance is
becoming more acceptable.

The manufacturers would probably build more intermediate gliders if the
sport was growing fast enough to drive up the price of the used gliders,
thus making a new glider of similar performance profitable enough to be
worthwhile.
--
-----
change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

Eric presents a reasonable picture of the glider market. In fact, I think
the present glider market is about right. There is a market for
state-of-the-art gliders for competition and a flourishing market in used
gliders.

A person of modest means can buy a 20 year old glass glider with spectacular
performance. That 20 year old glider wouldn't be such a bargain on the used
market if some competition pilot hadn't bought it for an astronomical sum
when it was new. We need to stop knocking competition, it creates a market
of really neat used gliders. When I started, if you wanted a high
performance glider, you had to build it. By comparison, this market is
nirvana. The availability and cost of gliders isn't the real problem.

One of the many problems that does need attention is training costs. Rental
and airtow make getting a glider rating cost more than a private power
certificate in many locations. It's also a LOT more hassle to get glider
training because of the short flights and long waits. For anyone interested
in aviation but who hasn't chosen whether to go for soaring or another
aviation related activity, this is a problem. Glider training costs,
particularly the overall hourly rates, just don't look reasonable by
comparison.

Now, I'm NOT suggesting that anyone is overcharging for rentals or air tows.
It costs what is does for very good reasons. It's just that those reasons
are not apparent to the newcomer.

I think it might be a good idea to take a long hard look at the training
"experience" from the students point of view to see if there isn't something
that could be done to make it more attractive. The first thing I would
suggest is to look at winch launch for training.

Bill Daniels

"Eric Greenwell" wrote in message
...
Lennie the Lurker wrote:
Almost every sailplane made today is made with the
competitor in mind, and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

There is some truth to this claim, but it's more complicated than the
manufacturers "not listening". They know their gliders must do well in
competition (at least the major factories), because potential buyers
think this is important, even though the majority of buyers aren't
serious competitors (note that the majority of the German sailplane
production is now motorized).

There are some "second-tier" gliders, like the reintroduction of the
Glasflugel 304, the Russia AC-4, Apis, and Silent; however, any new
glider that isn't a top-of-the-line glider has some serious competition
in the market: used gliders. Glider last a long time, and the
performance improvements have been slow, so a new glider that isn't
better, just cheaper, has to compete with equal performance, even
cheaper used gliders.

This situation is quite different from the hang glider market, where the
gliders wear out much sooner, and the improvements from year to year are
much greater than they are for sailplanes.

and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

Just join a thread ripping apart the PW5 to see how something "more
pedestrian" might sell. The PW5 actually has sold OK, as did the Russia,
and so that may be why we now have the Apis and Silent (at least in
part). Attitudes are slowly changing, and "moderate" performance is
becoming more acceptable.

The manufacturers would probably build more intermediate gliders if the
sport was growing fast enough to drive up the price of the used gliders,
thus making a new glider of similar performance profitable enough to be
worthwhile.
--
-----
change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

The high performance market will not make Soaring grow.

I am betting on the new generation of very light gliders, that you can
stick together alone and take home and are self launchers! Those have
to be improved for taxiing abillity. Then there should be very similar
2 place trainers, same make, that Operators can train in and present
a package. Looks like those setups are coming.

If those selflaunchers can go down to $ 30 000 I think we have
something.
People have to be trained to be able to fly off of most any airport,
with good radio procedures and skills to fit into that traffic.

This will enable folks to fly a little after work, on weekends without
a crew,
do flights in a hiking fashion. (Wandersegelflug) in German. Also
they may have some time left over for Golf or Tennis........maybe bas
fishing?

Think Up

Dieter B







"Bill Daniels" wrote in message news:LCmfc.39108$wP1.153715@attbi_s54...
Eric presents a reasonable picture of the glider market. In fact, I think
the present glider market is about right. There is a market for
state-of-the-art gliders for competition and a flourishing market in used
gliders.

A person of modest means can buy a 20 year old glass glider with spectacular
performance. That 20 year old glider wouldn't be such a bargain on the used
market if some competition pilot hadn't bought it for an astronomical sum
when it was new. We need to stop knocking competition, it creates a market
of really neat used gliders. When I started, if you wanted a high
performance glider, you had to build it. By comparison, this market is
nirvana. The availability and cost of gliders isn't the real problem.

One of the many problems that does need attention is training costs. Rental
and airtow make getting a glider rating cost more than a private power
certificate in many locations. It's also a LOT more hassle to get glider
training because of the short flights and long waits. For anyone interested
in aviation but who hasn't chosen whether to go for soaring or another
aviation related activity, this is a problem. Glider training costs,
particularly the overall hourly rates, just don't look reasonable by
comparison.

Now, I'm NOT suggesting that anyone is overcharging for rentals or air tows.
It costs what is does for very good reasons. It's just that those reasons
are not apparent to the newcomer.

I think it might be a good idea to take a long hard look at the training
"experience" from the students point of view to see if there isn't something
that could be done to make it more attractive. The first thing I would
suggest is to look at winch launch for training.

Bill Daniels

"Eric Greenwell" wrote in message
...
Lennie the Lurker wrote:
Almost every sailplane made today is made with the
competitor in mind, and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

There is some truth to this claim, but it's more complicated than the
manufacturers "not listening". They know their gliders must do well in
competition (at least the major factories), because potential buyers
think this is important, even though the majority of buyers aren't
serious competitors (note that the majority of the German sailplane
production is now motorized).

There are some "second-tier" gliders, like the reintroduction of the
Glasflugel 304, the Russia AC-4, Apis, and Silent; however, any new
glider that isn't a top-of-the-line glider has some serious competition
in the market: used gliders. Glider last a long time, and the
performance improvements have been slow, so a new glider that isn't
better, just cheaper, has to compete with equal performance, even
cheaper used gliders.

This situation is quite different from the hang glider market, where the
gliders wear out much sooner, and the improvements from year to year are
much greater than they are for sailplanes.

and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

Just join a thread ripping apart the PW5 to see how something "more
pedestrian" might sell. The PW5 actually has sold OK, as did the Russia,
and so that may be why we now have the Apis and Silent (at least in
part). Attitudes are slowly changing, and "moderate" performance is
becoming more acceptable.

The manufacturers would probably build more intermediate gliders if the
sport was growing fast enough to drive up the price of the used gliders,
thus making a new glider of similar performance profitable enough to be
worthwhile.
--
-----
change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA

Bill Daniels wrote:
Eric presents a reasonable picture of the glider market. In fact, I think
the present glider market is about right. There is a market for
state-of-the-art gliders for competition and a flourishing market in used
gliders.

A person of modest means can buy a 20 year old glass glider with spectacular
performance. That 20 year old glider wouldn't be such a bargain on the used
market if some competition pilot hadn't bought it for an astronomical sum
when it was new. We need to stop knocking competition, it creates a market
of really neat used gliders. When I started, if you wanted a high
performance glider, you had to build it. By comparison, this market is
nirvana. The availability and cost of gliders isn't the real problem.

One of the many problems that does need attention is training costs. Rental
and airtow make getting a glider rating cost more than a private power
certificate in many locations. It's also a LOT more hassle to get glider
training because of the short flights and long waits. For anyone interested
in aviation but who hasn't chosen whether to go for soaring or another
aviation related activity, this is a problem. Glider training costs,
particularly the overall hourly rates, just don't look reasonable by
comparison.

Now, I'm NOT suggesting that anyone is overcharging for rentals or air tows.
It costs what is does for very good reasons. It's just that those reasons
are not apparent to the newcomer.

I think it might be a good idea to take a long hard look at the training
"experience" from the students point of view to see if there isn't something
that could be done to make it more attractive. The first thing I would
suggest is to look at winch launch for training.

Bill Daniels

"Eric Greenwell" wrote in message
...

Lennie the Lurker wrote:

Almost every sailplane made today is made with the
competitor in mind, and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

There is some truth to this claim, but it's more complicated than the
manufacturers "not listening". They know their gliders must do well in
competition (at least the major factories), because potential buyers
think this is important, even though the majority of buyers aren't
serious competitors (note that the majority of the German sailplane
production is now motorized).

There are some "second-tier" gliders, like the reintroduction of the
Glasflugel 304, the Russia AC-4, Apis, and Silent; however, any new
glider that isn't a top-of-the-line glider has some serious competition
in the market: used gliders. Glider last a long time, and the
performance improvements have been slow, so a new glider that isn't
better, just cheaper, has to compete with equal performance, even
cheaper used gliders.

This situation is quite different from the hang glider market, where the
gliders wear out much sooner, and the improvements from year to year are
much greater than they are for sailplanes.

and the manufacturers aren't going to listen to
any suggestion that maybe something more pedestrian might sell.

Just join a thread ripping apart the PW5 to see how something "more
pedestrian" might sell. The PW5 actually has sold OK, as did the Russia,
and so that may be why we now have the Apis and Silent (at least in
part). Attitudes are slowly changing, and "moderate" performance is
becoming more acceptable.

The manufacturers would probably build more intermediate gliders if the
sport was growing fast enough to drive up the price of the used gliders,
thus making a new glider of similar performance profitable enough to be
worthwhile.
--
-----
change "netto" to "net" to email me directly

Eric Greenwell
Washington State
USA



Hi Eric

Got to second that. I really can't understand why winch is not used more, it is
cheaper, faster and in some ways safer than aerotow.

There is no comparison in terms of profitability for the club. A good winch is a
license to print money in most clubs, and a fraction of the cost for the pilots.

Even our old lump can throw 30 launches a day to 1500"+ at a cost of under $4
per launch - and make a profit doing it.