How much longer?

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

"Jay Honeck" wrote

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

So the question is: How much higher must gas go up before *you* hang up
your headphones for the last time? Anyone care to predict what year the
last personal flights will occur in America?

No, there will always be some that have enough money, but the question is
more like, how long will it be until the number of active pilots is cut in
half, and then, half again?

The trend will be to see STC's to convert more and more engines to lower
compression cylinders and pistons, to allow engines to burn auto gas, I
think.

That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas. Also, the continuing trend to the small LSA
airframes, or the likes of them, perhaps not LSA, but the same size, and
faster.

Still, the classics will still fly, many only as show items, like classic
hot rods that only go out to go to shows.

I do fear, as you, that gas prices will continue to price more and more
people out of the ability to continue flying. I hope a solution to switch
nearly everything to a more affordable fuel is made available, and soon.
--
Jim in NC

"Morgans" wrote in message
...

"Jay Honeck" wrote

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

So the question is: How much higher must gas go up before *you* hang up
your headphones for the last time? Anyone care to predict what year the
last personal flights will occur in America?

No, there will always be some that have enough money, but the question is
more like, how long will it be until the number of active pilots is cut in
half, and then, half again?

The trend will be to see STC's to convert more and more engines to lower
compression cylinders and pistons, to allow engines to burn auto gas, I
think.

That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas. Also, the continuing trend to the small LSA
airframes, or the likes of them, perhaps not LSA, but the same size, and
faster.

Still, the classics will still fly, many only as show items, like classic
hot rods that only go out to go to shows.

I do fear, as you, that gas prices will continue to price more and more
people out of the ability to continue flying. I hope a solution to switch
nearly everything to a more affordable fuel is made available, and soon.
--
Jim in NC

The fact is that, even though it does have me priced out for the moment,
this really is cyclical. The US dollar is currently depressed, which
contributes to the problem. In addition, for most of the past forty years,
crude oil has been the inflation leader--oil prices ratchet up and
eventually stabilize, and then the rest of the economy catches up. This
time, we had the housing bubble as well, so there are (at least) two highly
inflated segments for the rest of the economy to emulate.

I don't especially like it, and as the financial ads always say "past
performance is not a guarantee of future results"; but the past is still the
best indicator that we have available.

In other words, so long as tax rates are indexed for inflation, aviation
will be as affordable in a few years as it was a few years ago.

Peter
Just my $0.02

On Apr 4, 11:40 pm, "Peter Dohm" wrote:
"Morgans" wrote in message

...



"Jay Honeck" wrote

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much
more will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price
point will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

So the question is: How much higher must gas go up before *you* hang up
your headphones for the last time? Anyone care to predict what year the
last personal flights will occur in America?

No, there will always be some that have enough money, but the question is
more like, how long will it be until the number of active pilots is cut in
half, and then, half again?

The trend will be to see STC's to convert more and more engines to lower
compression cylinders and pistons, to allow engines to burn auto gas, I
think.

That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas. Also, the continuing trend to the small LSA
airframes, or the likes of them, perhaps not LSA, but the same size, and
faster.

Still, the classics will still fly, many only as show items, like classic
hot rods that only go out to go to shows.

I do fear, as you, that gas prices will continue to price more and more
people out of the ability to continue flying. I hope a solution to switch
nearly everything to a more affordable fuel is made available, and soon.
--
Jim in NC

The fact is that, even though it does have me priced out for the moment,
this really is cyclical. The US dollar is currently depressed, which
contributes to the problem. In addition, for most of the past forty years,
crude oil has been the inflation leader--oil prices ratchet up and
eventually stabilize, and then the rest of the economy catches up. This
time, we had the housing bubble as well, so there are (at least) two highly
inflated segments for the rest of the economy to emulate.

I don't especially like it, and as the financial ads always say "past
performance is not a guarantee of future results"; but the past is still the
best indicator that we have available.

In other words, so long as tax rates are indexed for inflation, aviation
will be as affordable in a few years as it was a few years ago.


I used to hold the same optimistic view that things always get better
after they get worse. But the economy doesn't move ahead or catch up
just because it has done so in the past. The economy is driven by
people who are healthy, innovative and are adventurous. I am concerned
that we have been on a precipitous decline in all these areas for some
time now. The old C-152 does not carry two adults anymore. Overweight
is normal, and obese is now overweight. Diabetes is a household word.
Children are growing up with all kinds of problems, drugs and crime
being the least of them. I work in education, and in recent years I
have graduated many people with doctorate and masters degrees in high-
tech areas whom I would consider frighteningly incompetent. These are
the people who go on to become scientific advisers to governments and
other organizations where they make decisions that affects everyone in
the world. I am not the least bit surprised that we have made many
stupid and dangerous decisions in the past. The energy crisis should
not have come as a surprise to any one. The reason for our low dollar
is the national debt, but we are doing nothing to fix that problem.
That could be offset if there were lots of innovation and a healthy
population. But a mounting debt combined with obesity and declining
health looks like a bad combination for a bright future. I am afraid
that the party might be coming to an end. But for the sake of my
children, I hope I am wrong and you are right.

Andrew Sarangan wrote:
I work in education, and in recent years I
have graduated many people with doctorate and masters degrees in high-
tech areas whom I would consider frighteningly incompetent.

That's something of a self-indictment, isn't it? In what manner do you work
in education, "graduate" many "incompetents," and not have any culpability
in the matter?

Jim Logajan wrote:
Andrew Sarangan wrote:
I work in education, and in recent years I
have graduated many people with doctorate and masters degrees in high-
tech areas whom I would consider frighteningly incompetent.

That's something of a self-indictment, isn't it? In what manner do you work
in education, "graduate" many "incompetents," and not have any culpability
in the matter?


So you "Graduated Many People" in "High Technology" who are
"Frighteningly Incompetent"??

You must work at a Guvment School right?

Great Job Comrade. Thanks for your wonderful example of our
****ed away tax dollars at work

No wonder America is going to hell in a hand basket

On Apr 5, 8:22 pm, Jim Logajan wrote:
Andrew Sarangan wrote:
I work in education, and in recent years I
have graduated many people with doctorate and masters degrees in high-
tech areas whom I would consider frighteningly incompetent.

That's something of a self-indictment, isn't it? In what manner do you work
in education, "graduate" many "incompetents," and not have any culpability
in the matter?

Ah, now you are asking a more complicated question. Graduate degrees
are granted by examining committees, not by taking an exam in a
classroom. There are no A - F grades. There is lots of wiggle room,
and political pressure by committee members and administrators to
graduate as many students as possible. More students means more
revenue, and more (short term) reputation for the institutions, and
this can also affect tenure decisions. How many PhD or MS candidates
do you think fail at their oral defense? In many institutions, this is
0%.

On 2008-04-05, Morgans wrote:
That, and cleaner, slicker airframes will allow them to fly more miles to
the gallon. Look at some of the RV's that get something like 25 miles to
the gallon, of auto gas.

If you're friendly with your passenger, even go for the Europa. IIRC,
the 912-engined Europa can do 40 nm/gal at 120 ktas. I have a friend
with a turboed (914S) Europa, and that one still gets great economy on
auto gas at 135 ktas. It also climbs out at almost 2000 fpm if you push
the throttle past the detent into the 'limited for 5 minutes' power
setting.

The cabin is NOT big, though. Fits me fine but then again at my last
medical I was 152 lbs.

--
From the sunny Isle of Man.
Yes, the Reply-To email address is valid.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time?

For me, the limit would be $10/gallon before I will stop long distance
flying, such as flying between Seattle to California. To stop local
fun flights - maybe $15-$20/gallon. And I use autofuel.

The worry though is when the price approaches $7-$8/gallon, so many
people would give up flying all together and we'll end up losing many
of our airports due to lack of use, and the remaining ones might not
have gasoline for sale due to low sales volume (JetA will likely still
be available in those places). That'll make long distance flying trip
less and less viable.

The problem is magnified by the fact that 100LL price will go
exponentially more expense as consumption continues to dwindle, due to
the need of a dedicated distribution infrastructure.

In article 6LBJj.53005$TT4.41626@attbi_s22,
"Jay Honeck" wrote:

With Avgas topping five bucks a gallon, I find myself asking: How much more
will it take before GA is completely unaffordable? At what price point
will all the current "weekend pilots" be driven from the market?

Example: While on our trip back from Florida a couple of weeks ago, we paid
$5.20 per gallon in St. Louis. Since we needed 60 gallons, we paid over
$300 for a single tank of gas -- something I *never* thought I'd see.

That price has more than doubled in just the last few years, and there
appears to be no end in sight. So the question is: How much higher must gas
go up before *you* hang up your headphones for the last time? Anyone care
to predict what year the last personal flights will occur in America?

If I lose my mechanics and can no longer do owner-assisted maintenance,
then I'll probably sell my airplane (I own one partly because I love working
on it).

The price of gas is not likely to be the cause of my giving up on flying.
Stupid idiotic "security" requirements will more likely drive me away from
flying. The price of gas is simply not that significant to me. Of course,
my plane burns around 8 gph, or less if I run at 65% or thereabouts.

--
Bob Noel
(goodness, please trim replies!!!)