Fuel Prices

[Ross Richardson]

We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP
back a little more.
--
Regards, Ross
C-172F 180HP
KSWI

[N93332]

"Ross Richardson" > wrote in message
...
> We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
> per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP back
> a little more.

Been 'lucky' so far! Our local strip went from $2.59 to $3 per gallon for
100LL a couple months ago. Checked the price this last Monday and it was
still at $3 when auto gas in town was selling for $3.09...

Where can I find an STC for putting 100LL in my car??? ;-)

-Greg B.

[Maule Driver]

It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
the former and I thanks them.

Now the big question is whether to fill our private tank as soon as it
empties or wait a few weeks for the price to peak and hopefully come
down just a bit. Who has the crystal ball?

N93332 wrote:
> "Ross Richardson" > wrote in message
> ...
>
>>We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
>>per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP back
>>a little more.
>
>
> Been 'lucky' so far! Our local strip went from $2.59 to $3 per gallon for
> 100LL a couple months ago. Checked the price this last Monday and it was
> still at $3 when auto gas in town was selling for $3.09...
>
> Where can I find an STC for putting 100LL in my car??? ;-)
>
> -Greg B.
>
>

[Matt Barrow]

"Maule Driver" > wrote in message
om...
> It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
> rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
> the former and I thanks them.

He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless he's
really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.

Then where would you be?


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Maule Driver]

Matt Barrow wrote:
> "Maule Driver" > wrote in message
>>It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
>>rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
>>the former and I thanks them.
>
> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless he's
> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>
> Then where would you be?
>
That's why it's 'nice' and I'm 'thankful'. If I was running the store,
I'd be charging current replacement price. But in this case, it's not
exactly a store, rather it's a community tank they are running like
they'd want it run for themselves.

That's what is so great about 'community' and being 'nice'. By the
same token, one of 'them' is parking in my hangar because he is a
neighbor and his new hangar is under construction. And I'm holding up
on some workshop construction in same hangar until he has a place to
hangar his plane.

Community.

[Dan Youngquist]

On Thu, 8 Sep 2005, Maule Driver wrote:

> It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
> rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
> the former and I thanks them.

It's nice that they want to be nice, but if/when the price drops, they're
going to be in big trouble. No one is going to line up to buy the
expensive fuel they bought at the top of the market, and they'll have to
sell it at a loss. Whether the price is rising or falling, the only way
for the seller to come out even is to price according to current
replacement cost. They need to make a little extra money when the price
is rising, because they _will_ lose money when the price drops. The
narrower the profit margin, the more it hurts.

Oddly, the folks who get hopping mad at merchants who won't give them a
deal when prices are rising, are never around begging to pay a higher
price so the merchant doesn't lose his shirt when prices are falling.

-Dan

[George Patterson]

Matt Barrow wrote:
>
> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless he's
> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.

He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he won't. If
you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to the price you
paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then drops. This happened at
Lakewood airport two years ago.

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

[Gig 601XL Builder]

"George Patterson" > wrote in message
news:mS_Te.369$252.270@trndny05...
> Matt Barrow wrote:
>>
>> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
>> he's
>> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>
> He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
> won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to
> the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
> drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
>


I've seen that happen. The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it is
lower. Since we don't know what the OP's tank and supplier situation this
may not be an option.

[Maule Driver]

I see what you mean. Managing a smallish private tank is one thing but
I can see in a commercial op where people exercise more mobility, it's
the only way to do it. And when price change radically, everyone gets
mobile.

Dan Youngquist wrote:
> On Thu, 8 Sep 2005, Maule Driver wrote:
>
>> It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
>> rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
>> the former and I thanks them.
>
>
> It's nice that they want to be nice, but if/when the price drops,
> they're going to be in big trouble. No one is going to line up to buy
> the expensive fuel they bought at the top of the market, and they'll
> have to sell it at a loss. Whether the price is rising or falling, the
> only way for the seller to come out even is to price according to
> current replacement cost. They need to make a little extra money when
> the price is rising, because they _will_ lose money when the price
> drops. The narrower the profit margin, the more it hurts.
>
> Oddly, the folks who get hopping mad at merchants who won't give them a
> deal when prices are rising, are never around begging to pay a higher
> price so the merchant doesn't lose his shirt when prices are falling.
>
> -Dan

[Ross Richardson]

We only have a 8000 gal tank and with the fuel flow have to fill it
fairly often. We also get hit sometime with not being able to take a
full load unless we have someone lined up to split the load. We are at a
public owned airport.

Regards, Ross
C-172F 180HP
KSWI


Gig 601XL Builder wrote:
> "George Patterson" > wrote in message
> news:mS_Te.369$252.270@trndny05...
>
>>Matt Barrow wrote:
>>
>>>He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
>>>he's
>>>really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>>
>>He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
>>won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to
>>the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
>>drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
>>
>
>
>
> I've seen that happen. The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
> little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it is
> lower. Since we don't know what the OP's tank and supplier situation this
> may not be an option.
>
>
>
>

[Newps]

A buddy of mine that has a 1000 gallon tank called today. The wholesale
price of 100LL right now is $3.15 so we are going to wait a few weeks as
prices are coming down.



Ross Richardson wrote:
> We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
> per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP
> back a little more.

[Robert M. Gary]

I've not studied the mogas market specifically, but most markets are
based on speculation, not current conditions. That basically means that
any benefit associated with the effects of Katrina are already built
into the price of gas. Its just like the stock market. When a company
announces a great new money making opportunity, you don't have to wait
for it to pay off in order to see the stock price go up, the stock
prices goes up right away on the expection (as long as investors see it
as realistic). This is call the "perfect market theory". As long as
everyone has the same knowledge base of information (something the SEC
tries to assure) markets will automatically price based on that fugure
information, not the current situation.

So, in short, I"m saying that any benefit of the end of Katrina to gas
prices has probably already been reflected in the market. It would be
interesting to see what fuel futures are selling for right now.

-Robert

[Matt Barrow]

"Maule Driver" > wrote in message
om...
> Matt Barrow wrote:
> > "Maule Driver" > wrote in message
> >>It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
> >>rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
> >>the former and I thanks them.
> >
> > He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
he's
> > really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
> >
> > Then where would you be?
> >
> That's why it's 'nice' and I'm 'thankful'. If I was running the store,
> I'd be charging current replacement price. But in this case, it's not
> exactly a store, rather it's a community tank they are running like
> they'd want it run for themselves.
>
> That's what is so great about 'community' and being 'nice'.

It's great until it explodes in your face.

> By the
> same token, one of 'them' is parking in my hangar because he is a
> neighbor and his new hangar is under construction. And I'm holding up
> on some workshop construction in same hangar until he has a place to
> hangar his plane.
>
> Community.

Benevolence and being "neigborly".

[Matt Barrow]

"George Patterson" > wrote in message
news:mS_Te.369$252.270@trndny05...
> Matt Barrow wrote:
> >
> > He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
he's
> > really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>
> He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
won't. If
> you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to the price
you
> paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then drops. This
happened at
> Lakewood airport two years ago.

If you paid peak for the new tank, but charged your customers pre-peak
prices, you're dead.

"Maule Driver" would love that, I guess.


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

"Gig 601XL Builder" <wr.giacona@coxDOTnet> wrote in message
news:Yu%Te.27417$7f5.7148@okepread01...
>
> "George Patterson" > wrote in message
> news:mS_Te.369$252.270@trndny05...
> > Matt Barrow wrote:
> >>
> >> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
> >> he's
> >> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
> >
> > He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
> > won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to
> > the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
> > drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
> >
>
>
> I've seen that happen. The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
> little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it
is
> lower. Since we don't know what the OP's tank and supplier situation this
> may not be an option.

And if prices continue to escalate?

The problem we're discussing is charging pre-peak prices when you know your
replacement cost is going up substantially.


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

"Gig 601XL Builder" <wr.giacona@coxDOTnet> wrote in message
news:Yu%Te.27417$7f5.7148@okepread01...
>
>
> I've seen that happen. The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
> little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it
is
> lower. Since we don't know what the OP's tank and supplier situation this
> may not be an option.
>

The best bet is to charge enough to cover your replacement, and if prices
decline, you can adjust your prices accordingly.


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

Dan Youngquist wrote:
>
> It's nice that they want to be nice, but if/when the price drops,
> they're going to be in big trouble. No one is going to line up to buy
> the expensive fuel they bought at the top of the market, and they'll
> have to sell it at a loss. Whether the price is rising or falling, the
> only way for the seller to come out even is to price according to
> current replacement cost. They need to make a little extra money when
> the price is rising, because they _will_ lose money when the price
> drops. The narrower the profit margin, the more it hurts.

If they charge based on replacement, and if prices DO decline, they can
adjust downward their current costs (higher) against previously lower costs.
If they price current fuel lower, they completely remove any capacity to
move prices down.

It's simply a matter of thinking more than a day ahead, something so many
people miss.


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

"Newps" > wrote in message
...
> A buddy of mine that has a 1000 gallon tank called today. The wholesale
> price of 100LL right now is $3.15 so we are going to wait a few weeks as
> prices are coming down.
>
How much reserve does he have, enough to wait out the dropping prices?


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

"Robert M. Gary" > wrote in message
oups.com...
> I've not studied the mogas market specifically, but most markets are
> based on speculation, not current conditions. That basically means that
> any benefit associated with the effects of Katrina are already built
> into the price of gas.

Speculation is based on trends forecasting, not disasters.

> Its just like the stock market. When a company
> announces a great new money making opportunity, you don't have to wait
> for it to pay off in order to see the stock price go up, the stock
> prices goes up right away on the expection (as long as investors see it
> as realistic). This is call the "perfect market theory". As long as
> everyone has the same knowledge base of information (something the SEC
> tries to assure) markets will automatically price based on that fugure
> information, not the current situation.

"Perfect Market Theory" has been debunked so many times over so many years
I'm surprised anyone still holds with it. Hell, von Mises debunked it back
in the 1920's.


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Newps]

Matt Barrow wrote:
> "Newps" > wrote in message
> ...
>
>>A buddy of mine that has a 1000 gallon tank called today. The wholesale
>>price of 100LL right now is $3.15 so we are going to wait a few weeks as
>>prices are coming down.
>>
>
> How much reserve does he have, enough to wait out the dropping prices?
>

He's just a private owner with a Cessna 172 that he keeps on his 25
acres. He has a 1000 gallon tank to make refuelling less of a hassle.
If he runs out he'll just fly into town here and get gas.

[Robert M. Gary]

> Speculation is based on trends forecasting, not disasters.

Actually, that is totally wrong. Speculation right now is 1) How
damaged are the oil rigs in the gulf, no one really knows yet 2) What
is left of the infrustruction, no one really knows yet etc, etc, etc
If you actually study markets you will find that specualation is ALWAYS
there. Investors buy based on future values and speculate on anythig
that can effect price.

>"Perfect Market Theory" has been debunked so many times over so many years
> I'm surprised anyone still holds with it. Hell, von Mises debunked it back
> in the 1920's.

Certainly misunderstood huh? Cleary, you've misundestood it. I guess
its been debunked just like evolution, right? :) New theories come and
go all the time, it doesn't make existing ones wrong. A more detailed
undestanding of the scientific method would make that more clear.

-Robert, MBA

[George Patterson]

Gig 601XL Builder wrote:
>
> The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
> little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it is
> lower.

Most of the small airports near here have either one large fixed tank or a
tanker truck. Usually the trucks hold very little more than the minimum amount a
supplier will truck to the airport and the fixed tanks hold very little more
than a standard tanker load.

The guys with only fuel trucks are pretty much forced to fill one up when the
supplier makes a delivery. The guys with large tanks have more flexibility, but
they have to pay extra if they buy less than a full tanker.

George Patterson
Give a person a fish and you feed him for a day; teach a person to
use the Internet and he won't bother you for weeks.

[Tom Six]

"Robert M. Gary" > wrote in message
oups.com...
>> Speculation is based on trends forecasting, not disasters.
>
> Actually, that is totally wrong. Speculation right now is 1) How
> damaged are the oil rigs in the gulf, no one really knows yet

It's hardly speculation AFTER THE FACT, other than how the market will
react; in that case, it's a FORECAST since it's based on historical data.

[Robert M. Gary]

> It's hardly speculation AFTER THE FACT, other than how the market will
> react; in that case, it's a FORECAST since it's based on historical data.

I disagree, the fuels markets are always full of speculation. There is
still A LOT we don't know about the fall out of Katrina. Once that is
all know, speculation will be based on something else. Just look at the
fluctuations in the futures markets. Think of it this way. If your
neighbor knew exactly what the cost of supplying fuel was today and you
actually had knowledge of future events to come who would make the most
money in the market? You would buy fuels when you knew prices were
going up and wait when you knew prices were going down. Your neighbor
would just be reacting to current events and always one step behind the
market. The airlines have entire departments of people who's jobs are
to evaluate the fuel markets and try to gain knowledge of the markets
that others don't. At certain points they buy contracts. That's why
Southwest is doing so well right now. They are paying the lowest price
in the industry for jet-A because they bought a contract awhile back
that holds their prices until the end of the year. I was at the airport
the other day talking to a Citation driver who just paid under $3/gal
for his fuel. His company bought a contract before prices went up. Who
knows if they got lucky or were smart.

-Robert, MBA w/ a concentration in financial markets.

[Robert M. Gary]

BTW: Just to be clear for those not familiar with financial portfolio
development.

Southwest is actually hedging their fuel contracts by buying contracts
in more liquid (i.e. tradable) commodities such as crude, etc. So,
while they may be paying market rate at any particular airport, they
are extracting income from the increased fuel prices through their
commodities contracts. So their effective rate for fuel is less,
although the credit card receipt may not reflect it. I just wanted to
clarify that.

-Robert

[Roger]

On Thu, 8 Sep 2005 09:40:58 -0500, "N93332" >
wrote:

>"Ross Richardson" > wrote in message
...
>> We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
>> per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP back
>> a little more.
>
>Been 'lucky' so far! Our local strip went from $2.59 to $3 per gallon for
>100LL a couple months ago. Checked the price this last Monday and it was
>still at $3 when auto gas in town was selling for $3.09...

Not to worry, the 100LL will soon be above the car gas.
>
>Where can I find an STC for putting 100LL in my car??? ;-)

Don't forget to pull the catalytic converter. Lead contaminates the
platinum catalyst.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

>-Greg B.
>

[Roger]

On Thu, 08 Sep 2005 15:49:54 GMT, Maule Driver
> wrote:

>It's nice if your local supply keeps the price based on what they paid
>rather than what they's have to pay to replace it. Our guys are doing
>the former and I thanks them.

They are the ones without much business savvy and know nothing of
economics. If prices vary greatly and they do that they won't be
around long. OTOH if it's a municipality that purchases in quantity
it doesn't matter as much if they aren't trying to make a profit.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

>
>Now the big question is whether to fill our private tank as soon as it
>empties or wait a few weeks for the price to peak and hopefully come
>down just a bit. Who has the crystal ball?
>
>N93332 wrote:
>> "Ross Richardson" > wrote in message
>> ...
>>
>>>We just got a new load of fuel yesterday and the price jumped from $2.94
>>>per gallon to $3.52 per gallon for 100LL. I will have to pull the MP back
>>>a little more.
>>
>>
>> Been 'lucky' so far! Our local strip went from $2.59 to $3 per gallon for
>> 100LL a couple months ago. Checked the price this last Monday and it was
>> still at $3 when auto gas in town was selling for $3.09...
>>
>> Where can I find an STC for putting 100LL in my car??? ;-)
>>
>> -Greg B.
>>
>>

[Dan Luke]

"Robert M. Gary" wrote:

> BTW: Just to be clear for those not familiar with financial portfolio
> development.
>
> Southwest is actually hedging their fuel contracts by buying contracts
> in more liquid (i.e. tradable) commodities such as crude, etc. So,
> while they may be paying market rate at any particular airport, they
> are extracting income from the increased fuel prices through their
> commodities contracts. So their effective rate for fuel is less,
> although the credit card receipt may not reflect it. I just wanted to
> clarify that.

Jeez; the older I get, the more I realize how hard it is to get ALL the
facts about anything.

Thanks for the inside dope, Robert.

--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

[Matt Barrow]

"Robert M. Gary" > wrote in message
ups.com...
>
> > It's hardly speculation AFTER THE FACT, other than how the market will
> > react; in that case, it's a FORECAST since it's based on historical
data.
>
> I disagree, the fuels markets are always full of speculation.

Non-sequitur.

>There is
> still A LOT we don't know about the fall out of Katrina.

Of course; we don't know the future, but that doesn't mena we can't abstract
from similar occurances in the past. That's still not speculation.


> Once that is
> all know, speculation will be based on something else. Just look at the
> fluctuations in the futures markets.

Geez...they don't do market analysis, ala fellows like Martin Zweig?


>Think of it this way. If your
> neighbor knew exactly what the cost of supplying fuel was today and you
> actually had knowledge of future events to come who would make the most
> money in the market?

Oh, don't go down that loony "perfect market information" rathole.

>You would buy fuels when you knew prices were
> going up and wait when you knew prices were going down. Your neighbor
> would just be reacting to current events and always one step behind the
> market. The airlines have entire departments of people who's jobs are
> to evaluate the fuel markets and try to gain knowledge of the markets
> that others don't. At certain points they buy contracts. That's why
> Southwest is doing so well right now. They are paying the lowest price
> in the industry for jet-A because they bought a contract awhile back
> that holds their prices until the end of the year. I was at the airport
> the other day talking to a Citation driver who just paid under $3/gal
> for his fuel. His company bought a contract before prices went up. Who
> knows if they got lucky or were smart.
>
> -Robert, MBA w/ a concentration in financial markets.

And you still haven't made a joint assessment from analysis <-> speculation
(wild assed guess).


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Matt Barrow]

"Robert M. Gary" > wrote in message
ups.com...
> BTW: Just to be clear for those not familiar with financial portfolio
> development.
>
> Southwest is actually hedging their fuel contracts by buying contracts
> in more liquid (i.e. tradable) commodities such as crude, etc. So,
> while they may be paying market rate at any particular airport, they
> are extracting income from the increased fuel prices through their
> commodities contracts. So their effective rate for fuel is less,
> although the credit card receipt may not reflect it. I just wanted to
> clarify that.

And they positioning themselves for fuel savings/availability, or just
playing the markets with extra cash they have laying around?


--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[john smith]

In the latest issue of PLANE & PILOT, Bill Cox tells aabout ferrying a
Cessna 421C from Iceland to Texas. The price of avgas in Greenland,
$10.75 per gallon

[Mike Rapoport]

If you can determine when the price is high and when it is low it would be
better to speculate in the futures market than pump gas for a living.

Mike
MU-2


"Gig 601XL Builder" <wr.giacona@coxDOTnet> wrote in message
news:Yu%Te.27417$7f5.7148@okepread01...
>
> "George Patterson" > wrote in message
> news:mS_Te.369$252.270@trndny05...
>> Matt Barrow wrote:
>>>
>>> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
>>> he's
>>> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>>
>> He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
>> won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to
>> the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
>> drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
>>
>
>
> I've seen that happen. The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
> little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it
> is lower. Since we don't know what the OP's tank and supplier situation
> this may not be an option.
>
>
>
>

[Tom S.]

"Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
nk.net...
> If you can determine when the price is high and when it is low it would be
> better to speculate in the futures market than pump gas for a living.
>

Gee...last week it was $2.60 and now it's $2.99; if you can't figure that
one out, you shouldn't be pumping gas either.


> Mike
> MU-2
>
>
> "Gig 601XL Builder" <wr.giacona@coxDOTnet> wrote in message
> news:Yu%Te.27417$7f5.7148@okepread01...
>>
>> "George Patterson" > wrote in message
>> news:mS_Te.369$252.270@trndny05...
>>> Matt Barrow wrote:
>>>>
>>>> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
>>>> he's
>>>> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>>>
>>> He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
>>> won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price to
>>> the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
>>> drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
>>>
>>
>>
>> I've seen that happen. The best bet in a fluctuating market is to by as
>> little as you can while the price is high and as much as you can when it
>> is lower. Since we don't know what the OP's tank and supplier situation
>> this may not be an option.
>>
>>
>>
>>
>
>
>

[Howard Nelson]

>>>>> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon (unless
> >>>> he's
> >>>> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
> >>>
> >>> He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
> >>> won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price
to
> >>> the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
> >>> drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
> >>>


At WVI 100LL is now $4.31/US gal. Might take couple of years to empty the
FBO tank at that rate :).

Fuel cost for C182 now approx. $50/hr.

Think this might have an effect on the number of hours I fly and the resale
value of light aircraft used for pleasure?

C182 150mph @ 12gph = .30/mile fuel cost.
Auto 60mph @ 3gph = .10/mile fuel cost
Commercial airline .10mile total cost

Howard
C182P

[Tom S.]

"Howard Nelson" > wrote in message
. ..
>>>>>> He might not have enough cash to replace it, gallon-for-gallon
>>>>>> (unless
>> >>>> he's
>> >>>> really loaded which is unlikely) if the price spikes continue.
>> >>>
>> >>> He may also run into another problem, though my crystal ball says he
>> >>> won't. If you buy a tank of gas at a peak price and index your price
> to
>> >>> the price you paid, you may be stuck with that tank if the price then
>> >>> drops. This happened at Lakewood airport two years ago.
>> >>>
>
>
> At WVI 100LL is now $4.31/US gal. Might take couple of years to empty the
> FBO tank at that rate :).

I'll bet he's got a lot of margin in that price.

--
POLITICS, n.
A strife of interests masquerading as a contest of principles.
The conduct of public affairs for private advantage. - Ambrose Bierce

[Doug]

You didn't factor in the fact that small aircraft go DIRECT and thus an
equivalent trip is shorter. My Husky goes 125 mph on 8 gph for .26 fuel
cost but the trip is 25% shorter in miles so it comes out to around .20
fuel cost per mile of car travel distance.

[Mike Rapoport]

"Tom S." > wrote in message
...
>
> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
> nk.net...
>> If you can determine when the price is high and when it is low it would
>> be better to speculate in the futures market than pump gas for a living.
>>
>
> Gee...last week it was $2.60 and now it's $2.99; if you can't figure that
> one out, you shouldn't be pumping gas either.
>
>
Gee...if it is $3.20 next week, was $2.99 high

[[email protected]]

On 13-Sep-2005, "Howard Nelson" > wrote:

> At WVI 100LL is now $4.31/US gal. Might take couple of years to empty the
> FBO tank at that rate :).
>
> Fuel cost for C182 now approx. $50/hr.
>
> Think this might have an effect on the number of hours I fly and the
> resale value of light aircraft used for pleasure?
>
> C182 150mph @ 12gph = .30/mile fuel cost.

More like .34/mile for $4.31/gal avgas

> Auto 60mph @ 3gph = .10/mile fuel cost

This would require $2.00/gal mogas -- not likely these days


> Commercial airline .10mile total cost

For flights of around 400 nm (460 sm), where you would likely consider
flying a light airplane, typical 1-way ticket price might be around $150
(assuming round trip purchase with lots of restrictions). That comes out to
$.33/mile. However, if two are traveling (typical load in a light plane or
car for this trip) total cost would be $.66/mile.


An alternative is a more efficient airplane:

Piper Arrow 135 kts (156 mph) @ 9.4 gph = .26/mile fuel cost. (assuming
your $4.31/gal for 100LL)

A Mooney would do even better.

Also, note that a given trip by auto will typically be about 30% longer (in
miles traveled) than the straight-line flown by an airplane. Realistically,
that comes out to:

Auto 46 mph (straight-line equiv. going 60 mph) @ 3gph = .19/mile fuel
cost (assuming $2.87/gal for mogas)

--
-Elliott Drucker

[Newps]

Howard Nelson wrote:

>
> Think this might have an effect on the number of hours I fly and the resale
> value of light aircraft used for pleasure?
>
> C182 150mph @ 12gph = .30/mile fuel cost.

Then the value of my Bonanza just went up. If I want to fly at 150 MPH
that's 19 inches and 2000 rpm for a total of 9 GPH. Gas currently at $2.75.

[Tom S.]

"Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
link.net...
>
> "Tom S." > wrote in message
> ...
>>
>> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
>> nk.net...
>>> If you can determine when the price is high and when it is low it would
>>> be better to speculate in the futures market than pump gas for a living.
>>>
>>
>> Gee...last week it was $2.60 and now it's $2.99; if you can't figure that
>> one out, you shouldn't be pumping gas either.
>>
>>
> Gee...if it is $3.20 next week, was $2.99 high

Gee, it's Bush's fault that humans are not omniscient except in the movies.

[Tom S.]

"Tom S." > wrote in message
...
>
> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
> link.net...
>>
>> "Tom S." > wrote in message
>> ...
>>>
>>> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
>>> nk.net...
>>>> If you can determine when the price is high and when it is low it would
>>>> be better to speculate in the futures market than pump gas for a
>>>> living.
>>>>
>>>
>>> Gee...last week it was $2.60 and now it's $2.99; if you can't figure
>>> that one out, you shouldn't be pumping gas either.
>>>
>>>
>> Gee...if it is $3.20 next week, was $2.99 high
>
> Gee, it's Bush's fault that humans are not omniscient except in the
> movies.
>
Oh, BTW: since YOU are prescient, tell us how to deal with it (instead of
sniping from the sidelines so as to bloat your ego). :>)

[Mike Rapoport]

"Tom S." > wrote in message
...
>
> "Tom S." > wrote in message
> ...
>>
>> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
>> link.net...
>>>
>>> "Tom S." > wrote in message
>>> ...
>>>>
>>>> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
>>>> nk.net...
>>>>> If you can determine when the price is high and when it is low it
>>>>> would be better to speculate in the futures market than pump gas for a
>>>>> living.
>>>>>
>>>>
>>>> Gee...last week it was $2.60 and now it's $2.99; if you can't figure
>>>> that one out, you shouldn't be pumping gas either.
>>>>
>>>>
>>> Gee...if it is $3.20 next week, was $2.99 high
>>
>> Gee, it's Bush's fault that humans are not omniscient except in the
>> movies.


Why is it Bush's fault?

[Montblack]

("Mike Rapoport" wrote)
> Why is it Bush's fault?


Because he's been waiting, waiting and waiting for the UN to step in, and
they're nowhere to be found.


Montblack

[Roger]

On Tue, 13 Sep 2005 20:52:18 -0600, Newps > wrote:

>
>
>Howard Nelson wrote:
>
>>
>> Think this might have an effect on the number of hours I fly and the resale
>> value of light aircraft used for pleasure?
>>
>> C182 150mph @ 12gph = .30/mile fuel cost.
>
>Then the value of my Bonanza just went up. If I want to fly at 150 MPH
>that's 19 inches and 2000 rpm for a total of 9 GPH. Gas currently at $2.75.

I bought mine to fly and go places. It's at 24 X 24 @ 190 MPH on 14
GPH except when landing and taking off.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com
Roger

[Newps]

Roger wrote:

>
> I bought mine to fly and go places. It's at 24 X 24 @ 190 MPH on 14
> GPH except when landing and taking off.

I get 199 MPH TAS at 23/2500(75%) on 15 gph or 191 MPH TAS at
22/2300(65%) on 13 GPH.

[Montblack]

("Newps" wrote)
> I get 199 MPH TAS at 23/2500(75%) on 15 gph or 191 MPH TAS at
> 22/2300(65%) on 13 GPH.


199 - 191 .......... = 8 mph
15 - 13 .............. = 2 gallons
2 gal x 3.99 ...... = $8

65% to 75%..... = $1 per 1 mph :-)


Montblack

[Montblack]

("Montblack" wrote)
["Newps" wrote]
>> I get 199 MPH TAS at 23/2500(75%) on 15 gph or 191 MPH TAS at
>> 22/2300(65%) on 13 GPH.
>
>
> 199 - 191 .......... = 8 mph
> 15 - 13 .............. = 2 gallons
> 2 gal x 3.99 ...... = $8
>
> 65% to 75%..... = $1 per 1 mph :-)


So now I did some more thinking...

2 hour flight - approx 400 miles
(not counting taxi, take-off, decent, pattern, land)

199 mph vs 191 mph = 16 mile difference at the end of the flight
16 miles takes 6 minutes at 160 mph ...1/10 hour (16x10)
16 miles takes 5 minutes at '192' mph ..1/12 hour (16x12)
[I changed 191mph to 192mph for smoother math]

We know from above post that it will cost 16 extra dollars for the faster
speed (based on 3.99 gallon fuel)

$16 to save five minutes.

But the fast plane is down 5 minutes sooner.
At $60 /hr fixed costs ...that's $1 /minute
....a savings of $5.

So to get there 5 minutes sooner on a 2 hour (400 mile) flight:
$16 fuel - $5 (tach time) savings = $11

$10 = $2/minute for arriving 5 minutes earlier on the ramp, 400 mile away.
Wow.

I'm seeing a "free lunch" if you choose the slower speed. :-)


Montblack
Ultimately it was a food based problem

[Newps]

Montblack wrote:
> ("Newps" wrote)
>
>> I get 199 MPH TAS at 23/2500(75%) on 15 gph or 191 MPH TAS at
>> 22/2300(65%) on 13 GPH.
>
>
>
> 199 - 191 .......... = 8 mph
> 15 - 13 .............. = 2 gallons
> 2 gal x 3.99 ...... = $8
>
> 65% to 75%..... = $1 per 1 mph :-)

So I'm gonna have to find a place that sells avgas around here for
$3.99? It's currently going for $2.75, I'll ask if they'll take $4 a
gallon.

[Mark Hansen]

On 9/16/2005 13:35, Newps wrote:

>
> Montblack wrote:
>> ("Newps" wrote)
>>
>>> I get 199 MPH TAS at 23/2500(75%) on 15 gph or 191 MPH TAS at
>>> 22/2300(65%) on 13 GPH.
>>
>>
>>
>> 199 - 191 .......... = 8 mph
>> 15 - 13 .............. = 2 gallons
>> 2 gal x 3.99 ...... = $8
>>
>> 65% to 75%..... = $1 per 1 mph :-)
>
> So I'm gonna have to find a place that sells avgas around here for
> $3.99? It's currently going for $2.75, I'll ask if they'll take $4 a
> gallon.

Ouch! Last week I paid $4.60-something in Sacramento, CA.

.... I have fond memories of $2.75 ;-)

--
Mark Hansen, PP-ASEL, Instrument Airplane
Sacramento, CA

[john smith]

[math sniped]
> We know from above post that it will cost 16 extra dollars for the faster
> speed (based on 3.99 gallon fuel)
> $16 to save five minutes.

It is worth the extra money if it means landing ahead of the approaching
thunderstorm that's about to hit the airport and getting the plane in
the hangar.

> But the fast plane is down 5 minutes sooner.
> At $60 /hr fixed costs ...that's $1 /minute
> So to get there 5 minutes sooner on a 2 hour (400 mile) flight:
> $16 fuel - $5 (tach time) savings = $11
> $10 = $2/minute for arriving 5 minutes earlier on the ramp, 400 mile away.
> Wow.
> I'm seeing a "free lunch" if you choose the slower speed. :-)

But you are soaked or left sitting in the plane on the ramp until the
rain stops.

[Robert M. Gary]

I paid $4.50/gal at ABQ last July (before prices went up).

-Robert

[Robert M. Gary]

> And they positioning themselves for fuel savings/availability, or just
> playing the markets with extra cash they have laying around?

They are hedging. They spent a few dollars to buy assets that pay off
if prices go up. Therefore, if prices drop, they will be happy at the
pump. If prices go up they will be happy receiving money from the hedge
product (usually crude futures). If you look at the cost of fuel for an
airliner on a graph, hedging dampens the extremes. In the stock market
analysts look at the variability of a company's returns. Having less
variability is translated into less risk. At less risk, advisors are
willing to spend more for the security (Southwest stock in this case).

-Robert

[Robert M. Gary]

Mathew,
If you honestly believe that the trading price of oil futures is not
based on speculation of future events, may I suggest you look to your
local high school for a begining class in economics.

-Robert

[Matt Barrow]

"Robert M. Gary" > wrote in message
ups.com...
> Mathew,
> If you honestly believe that the trading price of oil futures is not
> based on speculation of future events, may I suggest you look to your
> local high school for a begining class in economics.
>

Robert,

I suggest you look up the difference between "speculation" and such tools as
"forecasts" and "trend analysis". The market turns on forecasts of current
and long term events based on historical data and develops trend analyses;
some play the speculation games based on HUNCHES, but they are a distinctly
small minority that count on being right maybe one time in five.

Also, I suggest you re-examine where economic forecasting, modeling, and
market speculation comes in the economic education literature hierarchy.

May I suggest you shut your piehole before you come off as a ill-educated
and pompous high school student who missed both language AND who just sat in
business/accounting classes and came off with a grade in typical public
school fashion.
--
Matt

---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[Dave Butler]

Matt Barrow wrote:

> May I suggest you shut your piehole before you come off as a ill-educated
> and pompous high school student who missed both language AND who just sat in
> business/accounting classes and came off with a grade in typical public
> school fashion.

Hey Matt, you realize that everything you write is archived forever and
searchable, right? So that, for example, someone interested in doing business
with your company can find everything you've ever written in usenet?

But then, maybe that's really the persona you want to project. Just wondering.

[Matt Barrow]

"Dave Butler" > wrote in message
news:1127398321.40649@sj-nntpcache-3...
> Matt Barrow wrote:
>
> > May I suggest you shut your piehole before you come off as a
ill-educated
> > and pompous high school student who missed both language AND who just
sat in
> > business/accounting classes and came off with a grade in typical public
> > school fashion.
>
> Hey Matt, you realize that everything you write is archived forever and
> searchable, right? So that, for example, someone interested in doing
business
> with your company can find everything you've ever written in usenet?

Well, I'll leave the "massively paranoid" department to you.

> But then, maybe that's really the persona you want to project. Just
wondering.

See previous line.

You might suggest Mr. "Business Expert" Grey (Accounting/MBA, wasn't it?)
learn what the hell he's talking about, such as the difference between
"speculation" and "analysis" or which Econ classes contain what material....

Or did you "conveniently" miss that part?

Oh, and I didn't build up my company by dealing with fakes who don't
understand basic terminology.

So, care to come up with another juvenile "Hollyweird" scenario?

--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO

[xyzzy]

Matt Barrow wrote:

> "Dave Butler" > wrote in message
> news:1127398321.40649@sj-nntpcache-3...
>
>>Matt Barrow wrote:
>>
>>
>>>May I suggest you shut your piehole before you come off as a
>
> ill-educated
>
>>>and pompous high school student who missed both language AND who just
>
> sat in
>
>>>business/accounting classes and came off with a grade in typical public
>>>school fashion.
>>
>>Hey Matt, you realize that everything you write is archived forever and
>>searchable, right? So that, for example, someone interested in doing
>
> business
>
>>with your company can find everything you've ever written in usenet?
>
>
> Well, I'll leave the "massively paranoid" department to you.
>
>
>>But then, maybe that's really the persona you want to project. Just
>
> wondering.
>
> See previous line.
>
> You might suggest Mr. "Business Expert" Grey (Accounting/MBA, wasn't it?)
> learn what the hell he's talking about, such as the difference between
> "speculation" and "analysis" or which Econ classes contain what material....
>
> Or did you "conveniently" miss that part?
>
> Oh, and I didn't build up my company by dealing with fakes who don't
> understand basic terminology.
>
> So, care to come up with another juvenile "Hollyweird" scenario?
>

Well Dave, I believe your question is pretty well answered. That is the
persona he wants to project.

--
"You can support the troops but not the president"
--Representative Tom Delay (R-TX), during the Kosovo war.

[Matt Barrow]

"xyzzy" > wrote in message
...
> Matt Barrow wrote:
>
>> So, care to come up with another juvenile "Hollyweird" scenario?
>>
>
> Well Dave, I believe your question is pretty well answered. That is the
> persona he wants to project.
>

Grow up and come back when you're both out of high school.

[Robert M. Gary]

> May I suggest you shut your piehole before you come off as a ill-educated
> and pompous high school student who missed both language AND who just sat in
> business/accounting classes and came off with a grade in typical public
> school fashion

Matt,
Where did you receive your MBA? I received my MBA from California State
University of Sacramento. My concentration was financial markets.
Please share your academic credentials.

-Robert

[Jonathan Goodish]

In article . com>,
"Robert M. Gary" > wrote:
> Where did you receive your MBA? I received my MBA from California State
> University of Sacramento. My concentration was financial markets.
> Please share your academic credentials.


Not to defend anyone, because I haven't followed this thread, but I have
noticed that you like to throw your academic credentials around.
Unfortunately, there are a lot of stone-dumb MBAs running around out
there, so I'm not sure that your hard-earned degree automatically gives
your position credibility.



JKG

[Matt Barrow]

"Jonathan Goodish" > wrote in message
...
> In article . com>,
> "Robert M. Gary" > wrote:
>> Where did you receive your MBA? I received my MBA from California State
>> University of Sacramento. My concentration was financial markets.
>> Please share your academic credentials.
>
>
> Not to defend anyone, because I haven't followed this thread, but I have
> noticed that you like to throw your academic credentials around.

One of the bastions of fools.

> Unfortunately, there are a lot of stone-dumb MBAs running around out
> there,

Ever see that FedEx ad with the guy who says he has an MBA and they tell him
he can work in the mail room? :~)

> so I'm not sure that your hard-earned degree automatically gives
> your position credibility.

....and doesn't know the difference between "market analysis" and "market
speculation".

Not when the basis of an MBA anymore is primarily bean counting and pop
psychology. Not when your most adroit investors usually DON'T have MBAs, or
if they do, they got them 20+ years ago.

Possibly, he got the ego boost that Tom Sowell refers to as the "anointed".


--
Matt

---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
Site-Fill Homes, LLC.
Montrose, CO