Crash Trends

[Skylune]

Looks like the 2005 Nall report won't be as upbeat. YTD August #s looking
pretty bad for GA, and that's before what seems a pretty bad September.

The AOPA spinners will have to work hard on next year to keep the rose
colored glasses tinted.

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/curr_mo.txt

[Gary Drescher]

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
> Looks like the 2005 Nall report won't be as upbeat. YTD August #s
> looking
> pretty bad for GA, and that's before what seems a pretty bad September.
>
> The AOPA spinners will have to work hard on next year to keep the rose
> colored glasses tinted.
>
> http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/curr_mo.txt

Until you normalize according to the number of hours flown, you don't know
if the accident rate has increased, decreased, or stayed the same.

--Gary

[Steve Foley]

I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown. It should be as
simple as having every IA report the total hours since the last annual on
every aircraft they inspect.


"Gary Drescher" > wrote in message
...

> Until you normalize according to the number of hours flown, you don't know
> if the accident rate has increased, decreased, or stayed the same.
>
> --Gary
>
>

[Skylune]

The Nall study has not done this in the past. Perhaps the 2005 study will
"adjust" the fatality stats to show that 2005 surpassed 2004 as the safest
year yet for GA.

[Steve Foley]

I haven't died yet, so they've all been as safe for me.

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
> The Nall study has not done this in the past. Perhaps the 2005 study will
> "adjust" the fatality stats to show that 2005 surpassed 2004 as the safest
> year yet for GA.
>

[George Patterson]

Steve Foley wrote:

> I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown.

They do. They ask at every medical exam.

George Patterson
Drink is the curse of the land. It makes you quarrel with your neighbor.
It makes you shoot at your landlord. And it makes you miss him.

[Skylune]

You probably won't, either.

My suspicion is the pop in GA fatalities is mostly from the (1)
fly-in-a-month school grads and/or (2) the ones who fly very infrequently
and are a danger to themselves and their passengers without knowing it.

Now I'm even seeing some pop up ads from a company that claims you can get
your IFR ticket in 10 days!!!!

LOL. This is ludicrous. The medicals are a joke, people can go from
zero time to IFR tix in about two months, etc.

What's next, on line certification??

[Skylune]

I might be wrong on this, but don't they also "ask" if you are taking
illegal drugs, are an alcoholic, or take proscribed medications (like
anti-depressants)? I'll ask my buddy who flies out of ISP, but I don't
think they make you pee in the jar....

[Gary Drescher]

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
"Gary Drescher" > wrote in message
...
>> Until you normalize according to the number of hours flown, you don't
>> know
>> if the accident rate has increased, decreased, or stayed the same.
>
> The Nall study has not done this in the past. Perhaps the 2005 study will
> "adjust" the fatality stats to show that 2005 surpassed 2004 as the safest
> year yet for GA.

You're mistaken. The Nall report has always expressed accident and fatality
rates as a function of hours flown. Otherwise, the rates would not be
meaningful as measures of safety.

--Gary

[Steve Foley]

Actually, they do make you pee in a cup, but they only test it for sugar.

Many years ago, I worked for Elkay Products, a medical laboratory
disposables manufacturer. About the only thing we made that anyone could
recognize was a specimen cup. Invariably, someone would neglect to buy cups
for the christmas party, so we would run out back and grab a stack off the
production line. And if you didn't finish your egg-nog, you could get a
leak-proof cap and bring it home.

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
> I might be wrong on this, but don't they also "ask" if you are taking
> illegal drugs, are an alcoholic, or take proscribed medications (like
> anti-depressants)? I'll ask my buddy who flies out of ISP, but I don't
> think they make you pee in the jar....
>

[[email protected]]

>>>Now I'm even seeing some pop up ads from a company that claims you can get
your IFR ticket in 10 days!!<<<

That's nothing new. To me it's no different from getting a multi rating
in 2-3 days. (I did) I also realized that while I had the rating I
wasn't an experienced twin pilot and needed a lot more flight time
before I was comfortable with two fans. For that matter a 10-day IFR
pilot probably shouldn't be attempting IMC conditions (certainly not
low IMC) without another pilot until the experience level comes up,
although there will be those that will do it solo. It may be easier in
a glass panel Cirrus than an old 172/Warrior but I think a conservative
approach pays off long term.

[Skylune]

Dresher wrote: "You're mistaken. The Nall report has always expressed
accident and
fatality
rates as a function of hours flown. Otherwise, the rates would not be
meaningful as measures of safety"

OK. I thought they only pointed to the raw accident and fatality stats,
which as you pointed out would be meaningless statistically. (Of course,
the press will just report on the percentage increase in fatalities
without normalizing for flight hours, which is ok by me.)

Is there any data on YTD hours flown, by category of GA?

[Skylune]

LMAO. Drinking egg-nog from a specimin container. But why on earth does
the FAA care if you are a diabetic, but couldn't care less about whether
you are a coke head? More weirdness.....

[Darkwing \(Badass\)]

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
> LMAO. Drinking egg-nog from a specimin container. But why on earth does
> the FAA care if you are a diabetic, but couldn't care less about whether
> you are a coke head? More weirdness.....


Like this? - http://citybrat.com/p397.htm

----------------------------------------
DW

[RST Engineering]

And you are willing to pay the IAs time to report the hours on your
airplane? Paperwork or inspection, time is time.

Jim



"Steve Foley" > wrote in message
news:Pgy0f.11$ar6.2@trndny01...
> I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown. It should be
> as
> simple as having every IA report the total hours since the last annual on
> every aircraft they inspect.

[RST Engineering]

It's worse drinking Chardonnay out of a specimen cup.

Jim



"Steve Foley" > wrote in message
news:SRy0f.17$7P5.1@trndny07...

.. Invariably, someone would neglect to buy cups
> for the christmas party, so we would run out back and grab a stack off the
> production line. And if you didn't finish your egg-nog, you could get a
> leak-proof cap and bring it home.

[Dave Stadt]

"RST Engineering" > wrote in message
...
> And you are willing to pay the IAs time to report the hours on your
> airplane? Paperwork or inspection, time is time.
>
> Jim

I don't know about others but I've got better things to spend my money on.
The numbers would be nice to look at for a minute or two every year but I
can't see how they would improve safety or provide any additional insight
into accident statistics.

> "Steve Foley" > wrote in message
> news:Pgy0f.11$ar6.2@trndny01...
> > I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown. It should be
> > as
> > simple as having every IA report the total hours since the last annual
on
> > every aircraft they inspect.
>
>

[Jay Beckman]

"RST Engineering" > wrote in message
...
> It's worse drinking Chardonnay out of a specimen cup.
>
> Jim
>
>
>

Seems redundant...

Jay B

[Steve Foley]

OOPS - I Guess I missed that.

"George Patterson" > wrote in message
news:Qny0f.4$_a6.1@trndny02...
> Steve Foley wrote:
>
> > I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown.
>
> They do. They ask at every medical exam.
>
> George Patterson
> Drink is the curse of the land. It makes you quarrel with your
neighbor.
> It makes you shoot at your landlord. And it makes you miss him.

[Steve Foley]

Depends on how much if a PITA it is.

I always ASS-U-MEd that you (an IA) were required to report something each
year regarding the annuals you've done.

I had forgotten about the report on the medical. I don't remember, do they
ask for hours since the last medical, or total hours?

I think that hours on the aircraft would be a more accurate measure, since
there is a good chance the IA can figure it out with the log books at hand.

As for paying for the time: I don't complain about the $45/hour shop rate
where I go when I have to pay Pep-Boys $65/hours.

"RST Engineering" > wrote in message
...
> And you are willing to pay the IAs time to report the hours on your
> airplane? Paperwork or inspection, time is time.
>
> Jim
>
>
>
> "Steve Foley" > wrote in message
> news:Pgy0f.11$ar6.2@trndny01...
> > I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown. It should be
> > as
> > simple as having every IA report the total hours since the last annual
on
> > every aircraft they inspect.
>
>

[Gary Drescher]

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
> Dresher wrote: "You're mistaken. The Nall report has always expressed
> accident and
> fatality
> rates as a function of hours flown. Otherwise, the rates would not be
> meaningful as measures of safety"
>
> OK. I thought they only pointed to the raw accident and fatality stats,
> which as you pointed out would be meaningless statistically. (Of course,
> the press will just report on the percentage increase in fatalities
> without normalizing for flight hours, which is ok by me.)

No, you're mistaken there too. The press seldom reports on GA accident
statistics, but when they do, they express the rates per hour of activity,
since that's the form in which the information is provided by the
organizations that keep track of such things. (See, for example, Sunday's
San Diego Union-Tribune, which mentions the GA accident rate of 6.6 per
100,000 hours of flying.)

--Gary

[Skylune]

Negative, Houston.

I saw articles written regarding the number of GA accidents without any
mention of hours flown. Now, where are the official hours flown
statistics
archived?

(Due to recent spam and abuse on our forums we have implemented a post
limiting filter to all users. Please resubmit your post in a few minutes.
We apologize for the delay.)

[TaxSrv]

"Skylune" wrote:
> ...
> Now I'm even seeing some pop up ads from a company
> that claims you can get your IFR ticket in 10 days!!!!
>
> LOL. This is ludicrous.

No it is not ludicrous. It's not for everybody, but for many others
it is very effective training. Just get the written out of the way
just before the 10 days. Are you an instrument rated pilot? Even
a VFR pilot may have little clue as to what instrument flying is
really about.

> the ones who fly very infrequently
> and are a danger

Disagree. For most light singles with tricycle gear, some of your
landings may just be ungraceful. With enough total hours, that
need not be the case. At least, this issue has little to do with
fatal accidents, the context of your posts. Two significant causes
of fatals are weather and fuel exhaustion, generally on long
x-country trips. Infrequent flyers go 40 miles for a hamburger on
a selectively gorgeous day.

Fred F.

[Gary Drescher]

"Skylune" > wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
> where are the official hours flown statistics archived?

Good question. You might ask the NTSB or the Nall Report folks.

--Gary

[Gary Drescher]

"TaxSrv" > wrote in message
...
> "Skylune" wrote:
>> the ones who fly very infrequently
>> and are a danger
>
> Disagree. For most light singles with tricycle gear, some of your
> landings may just be ungraceful. With enough total hours, that
> need not be the case. At least, this issue has little to do with
> fatal accidents, the context of your posts. Two significant causes
> of fatals are weather and fuel exhaustion, generally on long
> x-country trips.

Fuel management accounts for only 7.6% of pilot-caused fatal GA accidents,
according to the 2004 Nall Report. Weather causes another 12.7%. They're far
exceeded by takeoff/climb fatalities (16.5%), descent/approach fatalities
(18.6%), and maneuvering fatalities (25.0%).

--Gary

[[email protected]]

Skylune wrote:
> LMAO. Drinking egg-nog from a specimin container. But why on earth does
> the FAA care if you are a diabetic, but couldn't care less about whether
> you are a coke head? More weirdness.....

Because for all we know cokeheads are better than average pilots. The
number of fatalities where cocaine use is implicated has probably never
exceeded ten per year. More people are probably killed when they spill
hot coffee in their lap in their cars. Why on earth doesn't the dep't
of motor vehicles test for caffeine?

[George Patterson]

Steve Foley wrote:

> I had forgotten about the report on the medical. I don't remember, do they
> ask for hours since the last medical, or total hours?

Since the last medical.

> I think that hours on the aircraft would be a more accurate measure, since
> there is a good chance the IA can figure it out with the log books at hand.

Maybe, but the logbook hours will be tach hours on the plane. That won't be the
same as real hours on the plane, nor will either be the same as time in the air.
If tach hours is sufficient for the purpose, it might well be more accurate than
the current method.

Of course, as Jim says, that has to be paid for.

George Patterson
Drink is the curse of the land. It makes you quarrel with your neighbor.
It makes you shoot at your landlord. And it makes you miss him.

[TaxSrv]

"Gary Drescher" wrote:
> > Two significant causes
> > of fatals are weather and fuel exhaustion,
> > generally on long x-country trips.
>
> Fuel management accounts for only 7.6% of pilot-caused fatal GA
accidents,
> according to the 2004 Nall Report. Weather causes another 12.7%.
They're far
> exceeded by takeoff/climb fatalities (16.5%), descent/approach
fatalities
> (18.6%), and maneuvering fatalities (25.0%).
>

If those are overall stats, you're going to get different results
when you exclude accidents which are mechanically induced. That's
many of the climbout accidents, and often NTSB/FAA can't determine
if there was a partial power loss, where's there a fatal and
destroyed airframe. They just do thumb compression and mag spark
check, if possible, so it comes out pilot error. Ditto when on
final.

Maneuvering includes acro and circling low over your significant
other's house. Yes, currency can makes either safer, but we really
shouldn't do the latter.

Fred F.