Crash Trends

Looks like the 2005 Nall report won't be as upbeat. YTD August #s looking
pretty bad for GA, and that's before what seems a pretty bad September.

The AOPA spinners will have to work hard on next year to keep the rose
colored glasses tinted.

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/curr_mo.txt

"Skylune" wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
Looks like the 2005 Nall report won't be as upbeat. YTD August #s
looking
pretty bad for GA, and that's before what seems a pretty bad September.

The AOPA spinners will have to work hard on next year to keep the rose
colored glasses tinted.

http://www.ntsb.gov/aviation/curr_mo.txt

Until you normalize according to the number of hours flown, you don't know
if the accident rate has increased, decreased, or stayed the same.

--Gary

I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown. It should be as
simple as having every IA report the total hours since the last annual on
every aircraft they inspect.


"Gary Drescher" wrote in message
...

Until you normalize according to the number of hours flown, you don't know
if the accident rate has increased, decreased, or stayed the same.

--Gary

The Nall study has not done this in the past. Perhaps the 2005 study will
"adjust" the fatality stats to show that 2005 surpassed 2004 as the safest
year yet for GA.

I haven't died yet, so they've all been as safe for me.

"Skylune" wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
The Nall study has not done this in the past. Perhaps the 2005 study will
"adjust" the fatality stats to show that 2005 surpassed 2004 as the safest
year yet for GA.

Steve Foley wrote:

I've always wondered why the FAA doesn't track hours flown.

They do. They ask at every medical exam.

George Patterson
Drink is the curse of the land. It makes you quarrel with your neighbor.
It makes you shoot at your landlord. And it makes you miss him.

You probably won't, either.

My suspicion is the pop in GA fatalities is mostly from the (1)
fly-in-a-month school grads and/or (2) the ones who fly very infrequently
and are a danger to themselves and their passengers without knowing it.

Now I'm even seeing some pop up ads from a company that claims you can get
your IFR ticket in 10 days!!!!

LOL. This is ludicrous. The medicals are a joke, people can go from
zero time to IFR tix in about two months, etc.

What's next, on line certification??

I might be wrong on this, but don't they also "ask" if you are taking
illegal drugs, are an alcoholic, or take proscribed medications (like
anti-depressants)? I'll ask my buddy who flies out of ISP, but I don't
think they make you pee in the jar....

"Skylune" wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
"Gary Drescher" wrote in message
...
Until you normalize according to the number of hours flown, you don't
know
if the accident rate has increased, decreased, or stayed the same.

The Nall study has not done this in the past. Perhaps the 2005 study will
"adjust" the fatality stats to show that 2005 surpassed 2004 as the safest
year yet for GA.

You're mistaken. The Nall report has always expressed accident and fatality
rates as a function of hours flown. Otherwise, the rates would not be
meaningful as measures of safety.

--Gary

Actually, they do make you pee in a cup, but they only test it for sugar.

Many years ago, I worked for Elkay Products, a medical laboratory
disposables manufacturer. About the only thing we made that anyone could
recognize was a specimen cup. Invariably, someone would neglect to buy cups
for the christmas party, so we would run out back and grab a stack off the
production line. And if you didn't finish your egg-nog, you could get a
leak-proof cap and bring it home.

"Skylune" wrote in message
lkaboutaviation.com...
I might be wrong on this, but don't they also "ask" if you are taking
illegal drugs, are an alcoholic, or take proscribed medications (like
anti-depressants)? I'll ask my buddy who flies out of ISP, but I don't
think they make you pee in the jar....