Buyers market : update

[wise purchaser]

Greetings!!

It's starting to happen! buyers market!!!!!!

The price of used Airplanes going down! FAST (Cessna 150 & 172's)
checking trade a plane this past week the new sales listing's are
reflecting a rapid downward trend in asking price.

The dreamers (older listings) with run out airplanes, high time
airframe with runout engines are still asking for big bucks, (20 +
grand) but the new listings are more inline with Vref and NAAA.

Ebay listed airplanes are mostly IN LINE with Vref and NAAA. The
buyers know the Vref Value and bid accordingly.

After the elections airplane prices may get better! as the price of
Gas climbs back up to 3 bucks +++ per gallon auto and 4 -5 bucks for
aviation coupled with expected massive home forclousers and Job
losses.

( I hope I am wrong but it seem's that the price drops as we get closer
to elections!! funny, the stock market is way up to...just before the
elections (pump and dump???) a ploy by big $$$$ to re-elect the
same slime balls in Congress???? perhaps we will see!!!

[Jon Kraus]

wise purchaser wrote:
> Greetings!!
>
> It's starting to happen! buyers market!!!!!!
>
> The price of used Airplanes going down! FAST (Cessna 150 & 172's)
> checking trade a plane this past week the new sales listing's are
> reflecting a rapid downward trend in asking price.
>
> The dreamers (older listings) with run out airplanes, high time
> airframe with runout engines are still asking for big bucks, (20 +
> grand) but the new listings are more inline with Vref and NAAA.
>
> Ebay listed airplanes are mostly IN LINE with Vref and NAAA. The
> buyers know the Vref Value and bid accordingly.
>
> After the elections airplane prices may get better! as the price of
> Gas climbs back up to 3 bucks +++ per gallon auto and 4 -5 bucks for
> aviation coupled with expected massive home forclousers and Job
> losses.
>
> ( I hope I am wrong but it seem's that the price drops as we get closer
> to elections!! funny, the stock market is way up to...just before the
> elections (pump and dump???) a ploy by big $$$$ to re-elect the
> same slime balls in Congress???? perhaps we will see!!!
>

[Denny]

a ploy by big $$$$ to re-elect the
same slime balls in Congress???? perhaps we will see!!!
wise purchaser wrote:


There is no wait and see involved... Any investor with half a brain and
one eye can read the statistics from prior election cycles. This
happens (not necessarily the airplane price drop) EVERY presidential
election cycle... I purchased a number of energy related stocks 8
months ago that were languishing - nobody wanted em, not even my broker
(which is why he isn't allowed to trade my account by himself)... Up
till 6 weeks ago they continued to lethargically roll and belch, now we
are up 9.475% from purchase, as of yesterday, and headed nicely for the
target of a minimum 20% gain that I had predicted by election day...
They will be sold after the election, ahead of the inevitable plunge...
I just wish that the major election cycle was more often than every
four years...

denny

[Mike Rapoport]

Have you noticed that the same thing happens almost every year, election or
not?

Mike
MU-2

"Denny" > wrote in message
oups.com...
>a ploy by big $$$$ to re-elect the
> same slime balls in Congress???? perhaps we will see!!!
> wise purchaser wrote:
>
>
> There is no wait and see involved... Any investor with half a brain and
> one eye can read the statistics from prior election cycles. This
> happens (not necessarily the airplane price drop) EVERY presidential
> election cycle... I purchased a number of energy related stocks 8
> months ago that were languishing - nobody wanted em, not even my broker
> (which is why he isn't allowed to trade my account by himself)... Up
> till 6 weeks ago they continued to lethargically roll and belch, now we
> are up 9.475% from purchase, as of yesterday, and headed nicely for the
> target of a minimum 20% gain that I had predicted by election day...
> They will be sold after the election, ahead of the inevitable plunge...
> I just wish that the major election cycle was more often than every
> four years...
>
> denny
>

[Denny]

Well, yeah, but picking the 'right' sectors is not as automatic,
requires more time for study than I have...... I keep saying one of
these days I'm going to stop making a living and retire so I have the
time to make some real money...
But, given a president who made his money in energy, makes assuming
that the energy sector will slopping at the public trough one more time
before he leaves the stage, a gimmee

denny...


Mike Rapoport wrote:
> Have you noticed that the same thing happens almost every year, election or
> not?
>

[Mike Rapoport]

The same cycle happens every year in the energy market election or not.
Summer passes and electrical and gasoline demand drop and inventories build.
The hurricane risk abates. Prices reach a low in early fall. At some point
people start thinking about how cold it might possibly get during the winter
and prices rise in late fall. Winter comes and is almost never as bad as
people imagined it might be (they assumed the worst back in the fall) and
prices moderate going into spring.

The president has had very little to do with energy prices. Prices have
been driven by the industrialization of the third world, mainly China and
India. There are many (billions) more consumers of energy that there were
in the past. If you think back ten years, only North America, Europe and
Japan were using much energy per capita. Now everyone on the planet is.
There was simply no way for energy production to grow fast enough to keep
prices constant, so prices rose. At the new, higher, prices, exploration
makes economic sense in high cost areas and alternatives (ethanol, shale
oil, bio, wind ect). The next shoe to drop will be corn prices rising as
all the new ethanol plants come on line. The energy market will become more
stable at some point but the seasonal component will always be there.

The administration is under pressure for not having an energy policy and I
predict that they will come up with one very soon (weeks). There will be
little substance, mostly extending existing alternative energy incentives
and R&D funding for technology that is 25yrs away like hydrogen. There will
be little substance because they can't really effect supply (every availible
rig has been drilling nonstop for the past few years already) and most of
the demand growth is not in the US.

Mike
MU-2



"Denny" > wrote in message
ups.com...
> Well, yeah, but picking the 'right' sectors is not as automatic,
> requires more time for study than I have...... I keep saying one of
> these days I'm going to stop making a living and retire so I have the
> time to make some real money...
> But, given a president who made his money in energy, makes assuming
> that the energy sector will slopping at the public trough one more time
> before he leaves the stage, a gimmee
>
> denny...
>
>
> Mike Rapoport wrote:
>> Have you noticed that the same thing happens almost every year, election
>> or
>> not?
>>
>

[JJS]

"Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
link.net...
> The same cycle happens every year in the energy market election or not. Summer passes and electrical and gasoline
> demand drop and inventories build. The hurricane risk abates. Prices reach a low in early fall. At some point
> people start thinking about how cold it might possibly get during the winter and prices rise in late fall. Winter
> comes and is almost never as bad as people imagined it might be (they assumed the worst back in the fall) and
> prices moderate going into spring.
>
> The president has had very little to do with energy prices. Prices have been driven by the industrialization of
> the third world, mainly China and India. There are many (billions) more consumers of energy that there were in the
> past. If you think back ten years, only North America, Europe and Japan were using much energy per capita. Now
> everyone on the planet is. There was simply no way for energy production to grow fast enough to keep prices
> constant, so prices rose. At the new, higher, prices, exploration makes economic sense in high cost areas and
> alternatives (ethanol, shale oil, bio, wind ect). The next shoe to drop will be corn prices rising as all the new
> ethanol plants come on line. The energy market will become more stable at some point but the seasonal component
> will always be there.
>
> The administration is under pressure for not having an energy policy and I predict that they will come up with one
> very soon (weeks). There will be little substance, mostly extending existing alternative energy incentives and
> R&D funding for technology that is 25yrs away like hydrogen. There will be little substance because they can't
> really effect supply (every availible rig has been drilling nonstop for the past few years already) and most of the
> demand growth is not in the US.
>
> Mike
> MU-2
>
So when did we switch from a true supply and demand economy to one of pure speculation? The energy market volatility
is incredible. Even tools such as hedging are incredibly risky. Manufacturers are in a terrible bind. At least in
all but the energy rich countries.

Joe Schneider
8437R



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[Mike Rapoport]

"JJS" <jschneider@remove socks cebridge.net> wrote in message
...
>
> "Mike Rapoport" > wrote in message
> link.net...
>> The same cycle happens every year in the energy market election or not.
>> Summer passes and electrical and gasoline demand drop and inventories
>> build. The hurricane risk abates. Prices reach a low in early fall. At
>> some point people start thinking about how cold it might possibly get
>> during the winter and prices rise in late fall. Winter comes and is
>> almost never as bad as people imagined it might be (they assumed the
>> worst back in the fall) and prices moderate going into spring.
>>
>> The president has had very little to do with energy prices. Prices have
>> been driven by the industrialization of the third world, mainly China and
>> India. There are many (billions) more consumers of energy that there
>> were in the past. If you think back ten years, only North America,
>> Europe and Japan were using much energy per capita. Now everyone on the
>> planet is. There was simply no way for energy production to grow fast
>> enough to keep prices constant, so prices rose. At the new, higher,
>> prices, exploration makes economic sense in high cost areas and
>> alternatives (ethanol, shale oil, bio, wind ect). The next shoe to drop
>> will be corn prices rising as all the new ethanol plants come on line.
>> The energy market will become more stable at some point but the seasonal
>> component will always be there.
>>
>> The administration is under pressure for not having an energy policy and
>> I predict that they will come up with one very soon (weeks). There will
>> be little substance, mostly extending existing alternative energy
>> incentives and R&D funding for technology that is 25yrs away like
>> hydrogen. There will be little substance because they can't really
>> effect supply (every availible rig has been drilling nonstop for the past
>> few years already) and most of the demand growth is not in the US.
>>
>> Mike
>> MU-2
>>
> So when did we switch from a true supply and demand economy to one of pure
> speculation? The energy market volatility is incredible. Even tools such
> as hedging are incredibly risky. Manufacturers are in a terrible bind.
> At least in all but the energy rich countries.
>
> Joe Schneider
> 8437R

It was never "pure supply and demand" and it isn't "pure" speculation now.
There have always been producers, consumers as well as hedgers and
speculators in the commodities marktets.It is true that, in the past few
years more and more of the market participants have been financial players
rather than producers and consumers and this has added to the volatility.

Mike
MU-2

[Mark]

Are planes like boats and fast cars where the best deals are usually
found during the winter months?

[Newps]

Mark wrote:
> Are planes like boats and fast cars where the best deals are usually
> found during the winter months?

No.

[john smith]

In article . com>,
"Mark" > wrote:

> Are planes like boats and fast cars where the best deals are usually
> found during the winter months?

Sort of, it depends on the year. Hurricane season ends December 1st.

[Drew Dalgleish]

On Fri, 13 Oct 2006 00:12:50 GMT, john smith > wrote:

>In article . com>,
> "Mark" > wrote:
>
>> Are planes like boats and fast cars where the best deals are usually
>> found during the winter months?
>
>Sort of, it depends on the year. Hurricane season ends December 1st.

Ya and really good deals on ones that have been rolled into a ball :(

In Canada there is a bit of a seasonal market but many sellers just
hold firm and wait for spring.