snapshot of SEL market

[Mike Isaksen]

Here's a "cold shower" look at the SEL market, by examining a single pending
sale:

This seller includes a V-ref printout from Oct 2006
for his 1982 Piper Warrior II PA28-161 (Vref = $62089)

At the time it was listed:
TTAF = 3122
SMOH = 792
New P&I, avg avionics.

Now it is listed:
TTAF = 3122
SMOH = 792
STOH = 0
New P&I, avg avionics, Annual done = 3/2008

V-ref (Apr 2008) for the same config is Vref = $49138.
Breakdown:
For the base aircraft avg value of $36000.
Add low AF time bump up of $1700.
Add low engine time bump up of $1900.
Add new interior bump up of $4000.
Add new paint bump up of $5500.

That's a $13000 value drop for an airplane that has been sitting in a hanger
for a year and a half. And how many buyers are going to give a $1900 adder
for an engine that has sat doing nothing? So this plane will probably go for
low forties. And that to me is a "cold shower" look at the market today.

Example ad from AOPA classifieds and web (I have no affiliation):
http://www.youmarketonweb.com/B2/1.shtm

[Jay Honeck[_2_]]

> Here's a "cold shower" look at the SEL market, by examining a single
> pending sale:

Yep, it's a buyer's market. Wouldn't want to be selling anything right
now...
--
Jay Honeck
Iowa City, IA
Pathfinder N56993
www.AlexisParkInn.com
"Your Aviation Destination"

[Matt Whiting]

Jay Honeck wrote:
>> Here's a "cold shower" look at the SEL market, by examining a single
>> pending sale:
>
> Yep, it's a buyer's market. Wouldn't want to be selling anything right
> now...

Yes, I'm seriously considering buying again this summer as the prices
are fantastic. My only concern is that I think this is not just a
cyclical slide this time and I think we are still a long way from the
bottom. With the ever increasing fuel costs (that I don't believe will
ever come down again), soon to hit shortages of 100LL, increasing
regulation, etc., I think US GA is heading down the same path as Europe.
In 10 more years I believe that the US will be largely
indistinguishable from Europe on a cost basis, though probably not as
heavily constrained by regulation.

So, much as I'd like an airplane, I'm trying to decide how much money to
throw down the sewer as when 100LL goes away, it will be an expensive
paperweight. And the cost of flying now is simply incredible and rising
all of the time. Add to that the fact that is is even hard now to find
an A&P to do an annual (several local airports no longer have an A&P on
site), and things just aren't looking good at the low end. I suspect
the business side will thrive for a few years longer, but even that will
get pinched in the near future.

Matt

[Mike Spera]

>
> Now it is listed:
> TTAF = 3122
> SMOH = 792
> STOH = 0
> New P&I, avg avionics, Annual done = 3/2008
>

Economics aside, I would have to ask why a 792 hour engine in a Warrior
needed to be topped. Likely this plane has done a LOT of sitting in that
hangar. Average avionics means a couple of beat up old KX-170b's, the
original xponder and little else. I really would not want to buy a
Warrior for $62k and have to drop 15 grand into avionics anyway. The
current price makes that proposition a bit more attractive.

As far as that $13k price drop, it is about time. Same thing happened in
housing. An unsustainable and unrealistic feeding frenzy finally comes
to an end (although I am a little depressed that the new lipstick did
not cushion the drop some).

I do agree with another poster though that the slide in old airplane
prices may just continue downward. Airplane ownership and flying in
general has been at the margin of affordability for mainstream folks.
Squeeze the economy a little and they are priced out of the market. This
squeeze may be permanent and it may be a sign of the standard of living
slipping for the first time since WWII.

Who knows, in a few years we may all be dancing in the streets again.

Good Luck.
Mike

[Bob Noel]

In article >,
Mike Spera > wrote:

> I really would not want to buy a
> Warrior for $62k and have to drop 15 grand into avionics anyway. The
> current price makes that proposition a bit more attractive.

If the avionics work, why drop any AMUs into the aircraft? Glass is
nice, but not necessary for flying a Warrior, even IFR.

--
Bob Noel
(goodness, please trim replies!!!)

[Vaughn Simon]

"Mike Isaksen" > wrote in message
news:4YLQj.201$Yo2.195@trndny01...
> Here's a "cold shower" look at the SEL market, by examining a single pending
> sale:

One person's bad news is another person's good news. Lower used airplane
prices are not only good for the buyer, but can give a refreshing boost of new
business to the entire industry. New owners are more likely to spend money on
their new acquisitions (helping the entire industry), more likely to need
further training, and more likely to actually fly, and so will need fuel,
charts, headsets, and a whole range of aviation goodies.

The business cycle can be a healthy thing. Semi-dead airplanes rotting in
hangers are not a good thing for the industry.

Vaughn

[[email protected]]

We are seeing the Light-Sport Aircraft growing in numbers.
Light-Sport is providing a boost to the first time aviators and old
timers wanting to scale down and save money flying.

Have a good day and stay out of the trees!
See ya on Sport Aircraft group
http://groups.yahoo.com/group/Sport_Aircraft/



"Vaughn Simon" wrote:
Lower used airplane prices are not only good for the buyer, but can
give a refreshing boost of new
business to the entire industry. *

Vaughn

[xyzzy]

One of my club's instructors mentioned to me that with the weak
dollar, a lot of our fleet is being sold overseas, which is actually
helping the prop up the market some because local buyers are competing
with foreigners whose currency is significantly stronger.

[xyzzy]

On May 9, 10:59 am, xyzzy > wrote:
> One of my club's instructors mentioned to me that with the weak
> dollar, a lot of our fleet is being sold overseas, which is actually
> helping the prop up the market some because local buyers are competing
> with foreigners whose currency is significantly stronger.

And plus, those airplanes are never coming back here -- they are gone
for good. Our used GA fleet is being depleted.

[Gig 601Xl Builder]

xyzzy wrote:
> On May 9, 10:59 am, xyzzy > wrote:
>> One of my club's instructors mentioned to me that with the weak
>> dollar, a lot of our fleet is being sold overseas, which is actually
>> helping the prop up the market some because local buyers are competing
>> with foreigners whose currency is significantly stronger.
>
> And plus, those airplanes are never coming back here -- they are gone
> for good. Our used GA fleet is being depleted.


Which will further help the market value once the economy rebounds.

[RC_Moonpie]

On Fri, 09 May 2008 10:12:56 -0500, Gig 601Xl Builder wrote:

> xyzzy wrote:
>> On May 9, 10:59 am, xyzzy > wrote:
>>> One of my club's instructors mentioned to me that with the weak
>>> dollar, a lot of our fleet is being sold overseas, which is actually
>>> helping the prop up the market some because local buyers are competing
>>> with foreigners whose currency is significantly stronger.
>>
>> And plus, those airplanes are never coming back here -- they are gone
>> for good. Our used GA fleet is being depleted.
>
> Which will further help the market value once the economy rebounds.

After both of you wake up and quit dreaming.