Cloud Height Forecast

[[email protected]]

If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
three days down the road. Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
helpful. In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). The usual souces of
weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.

I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. Does anyone know
a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? Is
there such a site ?

Thanks,
Evan

[Ross]

wrote:
> If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
> in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
> three days down the road. Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
> helpful. In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
> between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
> broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). The usual souces of
> weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
> which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.
>
> I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. Does anyone know
> a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? Is
> there such a site ?
>
> Thanks,
> Evan

I have used this site
http://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KDAL&model=avn&state=TX

You can change the location within the application. While it looks nice,
I have found it not to be real accurate at time. Let us know what you
discover.

--

Regards, Ross
C-172F 180HP (ex-owner)
KSWI

[Bear Bottoms[_4_]]

On Thu, 12 Feb 2009 07:24:46 -0800 (PST), wrote:

> If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
> in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
> three days down the road. Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
> helpful. In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
> between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
> broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). The usual souces of
> weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
> which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.
>
> I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. Does anyone know
> a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? Is
> there such a site ?
>
> Thanks,
> Evan

God.
--
Bear Bottoms
Private Attorney General

[John T[_5_]]

I have faced this issue many times on flights between the Carolinas and
New England. I've probably flown the trip 25 times and mostly in toy
airplanes similar to an Archer.

I think you're asking a lot from the weather forecasters. Modest
changes in moisture content, solar heating, winds and what not can make
for big changes in the clouds density, bases and tops. Even if the data
you want were available, what good are these forecasts if not highly
accurate?

Usually I have to spend hours looking at the forecasts before I leave on
a trip and in the winter time, I rarely know if I can go until 12-24
hours before departure.

One tip is that if you flight plan through NYC airspace, avoid flying
between 5 pm and 9 pm local if you expect to ask ATC for weather vectors
or help with ice. They can be quite busy then. Otherwise, I prefer V1
over a route west of Washington, DC. There just isn't that much room
between the mountains and possible clouds on V143, for example. I've
been squeezed more than once, but have always had an out.

Good luck in your planning.

-John

wrote:
> If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
> in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
> three days down the road. Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
> helpful. In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
> between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
> broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). The usual souces of
> weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
> which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.
>
> I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. Does anyone know
> a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? Is
> there such a site ?
>
> Thanks,
> Evan

[Paul H]

>
> I have used this sitehttp://www.usairnet.com/cgi-bin/launch/code.cgi?Submit=Go&sta=KDAL&mo...

I also use this site a lot, but in the vicinity of Lake Michigan, it's
highly unreliable even the night before.

[[email protected]]

while somewhat related:

I just asked a programmer buddy of mine to see if he could come up
with an "IFR" hunter applicaiton. I live for flying IFR and asked if
he could write an app that would send me an email when the WX was
forcast to be in my "wheelhouse", i.e. 500-1000 over, 2 miles viz, etc
for selected airports. It would be configurable - airports,cloud
bases, viz, etc.

Would this be worth his while? Would you pay for this - shareware
type deal- 20 bucks if it works and you like it.

Thanks!

Chris "it's 200 over now, waiting for 600 over..." Matras

On Thu, 12 Feb 2009 07:24:46 -0800 (PST), wrote:

>If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
>in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
>three days down the road. Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
>helpful. In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
>between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
>broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). The usual souces of
>weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
>which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.
>
>I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. Does anyone know
>a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? Is
>there such a site ?
>
>Thanks,
>Evan

[Dan Camper]

On Sun, 15 Mar 2009 10:56:08 -0400,
wrote:

> while somewhat related:
>
> I just asked a programmer buddy of mine to see if he could come up
> with an "IFR" hunter applicaiton. I live for flying IFR and asked if
> he could write an app that would send me an email when the WX was
> forcast to be in my "wheelhouse", i.e. 500-1000 over, 2 miles viz, etc
> for selected airports. It would be configurable - airports,cloud
> bases, viz, etc.
>
> Would this be worth his while? Would you pay for this - shareware
> type deal- 20 bucks if it works and you like it.
>
> Thanks!
>
> Chris "it's 200 over now, waiting for 600 over..." Matras

Yes, I would pay for it.

Twenty ****ing cents.
--
http://tr.im/1f9p

[BeechSundowner]

On Mar 15, 9:56*am, wrote:

> Would this be worth his while? *Would you pay for this - shareware
> type deal- 20 bucks if it works and you like it.

No, it would not be worth his while for the very limited audience AND
all the available free website.

My decisions would be made no earlier then the night before for
instrument work, so what purpose would the alert do me when I am only
going to log on my favorite flight planner and get the current
ceilings.

Change the airport identifier for historical METARS at your favorite
airport.

http://www.uswx.com/us/stn/?code=c&n=50&stn=kjan

You can get up to the last 1440 observations.

[a[_3_]]

On Feb 12, 11:24*am, wrote:
> If I'm thinking about flying somewhere in the northeast and returning
> in a few days, it'll be very helpful to know forecast cloud height
> three days down the road. *Knowing it'll be "cloudy" isn't too
> helpful. *In my Archer (not approved for icing) a hugh difference
> between an overcast layer at 40,000 feet (no problem at all) and a
> broken layer at 800 feet (better to drive). *The usual souces of
> weather will describe both days as cloudy and the aviation sources of
> which I'm aware only forecast 36 hours or less into the future.
>
> I'd like to know forecast cloud height 3-4 days out. *Does anyone know
> a site where I can get cloud base forecasts for the northeast ? *Is
> there such a site ?
>
> Thanks,
> Evan

The science is just not good enough for the weather guessers to
predict clouds that well. On the other hand, it's worth remembering
icing conditions don't exist in every cloud. If it's well below
freezing, unless you're flying under a warm front, you're not likely
to get ice. Our practice is to avoid clouds at altitudes where temps
are in the 0 to -5 degrees C range, and we pay very close attention to
pilot reports of icing along our route. If the freezing level is a
couple of thousand feet above the surface if you do get airframe ice
you can descend out of icing conditions. In the Northeast we find
about 10% of our planned flights were canceled because of WX --
embedded thunderstorms, icing, that sort of thing. It means 90% or so
went as planned. If you give yourself a day's float time the chances
are very good you'll be able to make the trip. Unflyable weather just
does not hang around that long.