On 3/20/21 7:52 AM, Hartley Falbaum wrote:
"What else did I miss?"---the other side of the equation in risk
analysis. What is the worst that can happen if I don't release? vs
What is the worst that can happen if I do? There may be a 1-2 second
"startle factor" in some cases. So, the decision must be
pre-loaded. There is very little cost (usually) to a release.

Kudos to BFC for attempting to take this particular
incident/accident/discussion beyond "mere panacea declamations" to which
the RAS medium seems (to me, dry chuckle) prone.

On the off chance there're some lurkers "somewhat earlier along" the
soaring learning curve - as opposed to long-time RAS regulars (which
includes me, and who seem to in recent years be hogging the forum ) -
this thread-to-date contains potentially-personally-useful,
seriously-good, food for thought.

Hartley's "reduction-ad-absurdem" post above is but one example. In my
view, "panacea fixes" (should they in fact be viewed within one's mind
as such) are too-often a blind alley when it comes to such things as
future learning and "properly preparing one's mind" to commit soaring in
as personally-healthy a manner as possible.

A common example of "panacea thinking" - at least in my part of the
Rocky Mountain Front Range west - is close-minded variations of: "I'll
be OK height-wise so long as I have X-thousand feet msl at location Y
back in the hills". Well, yeah, most of the time, maybe...but how to
reconcile that thinking with the thinking inherent within H. Falbaum's
hypothetical line of thought? One size "generally" can't *possibly* fit
every situation, and it's up to Joe Glider Pilot to decide how best to
approach this conundrum.

Given the inherent imperfections in humanity - imperfect
judgment/skills, lack of omniscience, etc. - while perfection isn't an
option, Joe Glider Pilot can still do a whole lot, and go a long way, to
avoid known (to those with greater experience & skills)
situations/physical-harm/death that *should* be avoidable, given their
existing skills/knowledge.
- - - - - -

Switching here from "Sermon from the Mount" mode to (so I hope)
illustrative examples from experience, O'beer thirty, tale-telling mode...

Early in my post-1-26, 15-meter glass, "somewhat-nose-hooked", aerotow
state, while attempting to take off from a grass strip in the mountains
north of Sun Valley, ID, several things made me pre-launch nervous:
slight crosswind, new-to-me tug/pilot of unknown provenances, knee-high
grass to either side of runway. I and my wing-runner/partner discussed
the situation and pre-planned things best we could (both "local
strangers" and prolly 200 hours total time each) and off I went. Pulled
the plug after an upwind wing drop followed by progressive swerving
into-wind along w. failure of the wing to lift. No harm, no foul was the
result outside the cockpit; inside the cockpit...not so much. Serious
dismay, as I felt that "somehow" I could've done better under existing
circumstances.

And so it proved on the 2nd launch attempt following further discussion
w. my partner *and* the tow-pilot, and some refining of my mental launch
go/no-go plan as well as techniques and "overall awarenesses".

Zooming ahead mightily through time, in that and two other ships (HP-14
w. "50% nose/CG hook, 15-meter span, no negative flaps, V-tail, tail
skid; and 15-meter Zuni *with* negative flaps, "somewhat nose-hooked",
heavily-weighted tailwheel) I aborted 1-each aerotow, both times
followed by successful launches behind the same tug/pilot. Both were
5,300'msl, summertime, concerning-but-far-less-so than the C-70
experience...because of successfully pre-planned/decided "mental
scenario-ing". In both ships, I also made more-than-one (several? many?)
no-wing-runner takeoffs entirely w/o incident.

Bragging? Not intended as such. Rather trying to illustrate how
"preparing one's mind 'properly'" can be, likely *will* be, a good thing
for Joe Glider Pilot, if avoiding adrenaline, negative-excitement, and -
potentially - accidents, is deemed personally desirable.

Other than what I've read on RAS, I know zip about the situation and the
pilot in this particular unfortunate - seemingly, avoidable - accident.
I wish him a speedy and full recovery and continued good soaring, if he
so chooses. And part of this *particular* Joe Glider Pilot would
genuinely appreciate hearing from the horse's mouth at some point in the
future, by way of refining my mental picture.

YMMV,
Bob W.