Early winter weather, night flying and a terrible accident

I learned of the fatal crash at Stewart airport last Wednesday, the
day after flying back to New York from Philadelphia. The sad
aviation news struck a raw nerve not only because it happened just
across the river from our home base, but also because we ourselves
were afflicted by the gethomeitis bug.

We had carefully checked the weather and planned for short weekend
visit, flying to Brandywine (near Philadelphia airport) on Saturday to
attend a Dewali Festival Celebration with a long time university
friend then flying back to Poughkeepsie on Sunday. There was a pocket
of bad weather developed Saturday night and kept lingering over
Philadelphia for the next several days. We filed for an IFR flight
plan Sunday afternoon but did not activate it once we realized the
cloud top was too high to avoid icing. With the ceiling of around
2000', we could have flown VFR tracing our inbound trip down the
Hudson River Corridor but it would be out of our way. There was also
the possibility of the ceiling dropping even further down making
dodging cell towers a tiring game. So we stayed for another day
enjoying sampling more Indian delicacies, debating social issues with
Shiv and sharing family stories with Meera. By noon Monday, the
weather did not improve as forecasted. We went to the airport, fueled
up and preflighted the plane for possible departure later in the day.
The ceiling was only at 300' with pireps of icing at 3000' and top at
17,000'. The man at the FBO told me that a number of planes had
departed including some non-known-ice-certified ones! He told me to
be careful. I assured him that we would not depart until we were
absolutely sure that it would be safe later in the day.

We checked the weather every hour or so carefully studying the
prog charts and monitoring radars. The small weather 'hook' over
Philadelphia was getting smaller and it looked like it would clear up
late in the evening. However there was a front moving from the East
at a faster pace and it was predicted to hit Poughkeepsie, Newburgh
area very early the next morning. We started to get antsy. Waiting
until the next morning would mean that we would have to either stay in
Philadelphia until Friday or to rent a car to go home to see our
daughter. She had planned to swing by New York on Thanksgiving on her
way to a wedding in Connecticut this weekend. It was 8pm when the
local ceiling finally lifted to 800' broken and 2300' overcast. Rick
and I wrote down Metar and TAF reports of every airport along our
intended route which we plotted to be away from all mountainous
areas. It appeared that we had at least 8 hours window of good VFR
weather for the 1.5hrs trip. Rick talked to the briefer who
confirmed our study. We went outside to look at the sky and were
glad to see the moon peeking through the clouds. The ceiling appeared
to be much higher than the last Metar report so it was a go decision.
We informed Shiv of our plan. He was quite concerned about our night
flight plan but told us that he assumed we knew what we were doing.

The moon was still visible by the time we got to the airport at
around 10pm. With the help of several big flash lights, we did
another careful preflight inspection before saying goodbye to our good
friends. I started the engine. The propeller wind cleared out all
the rain droplets outside but the inside of the windshield was quite
foggy. The towels in the center console came in handy. I could see
the yellow taxi line but the windshield in Rick's side was not as
clear. He kept saying, "I could not see a dammed thing!" I told him
to open the door to look for the line. It was a mistake. The airport
diagram and the approach chart for Brandywine got blown away. It was
a good thing that we had several backup options with Washington
sectional, approach books in the center console, the AOPA airport
directory under the back seat, and the GPS. We had no problem
climbing to 3000' with the cloud hovering at around 3500' to 4000'.
We tried to get VFR flight following with Philadelphia approach but
they were too busy. By the time we contacted Allentown approach, they
told us we were outside of their area and gave us New York number. We
could hear all the pilots clearly but the NY controller's voice was
very muffled. He chided Rick for not responding quickly, but it was
very difficult to decipher his garbled rapid firings. He seemed
relieved when Rick told him that we plan to stay out of Bravo
airspace.

The air was calm, the visibility was almost unlimited with
thousands of shimmering light points below. As we went further north,
the ATC frequency became more and more quiet. City lights slowly
faded away. I felt serene, almost Zen-like, flying mostly by the
instruments with occasional glance at the moonlit farmland below. The
cloud remained high and I maintained 3500' until we approached Orange
County airport just west of Stewart airport. Poughkeepsie ATIS
indicated ceiling at 2900', wind 150 at 6kts. I shot the ILS 6
approach purposely staying just above the glide slope. Runway 6
approach is known for frequent wind shear most likely induced by the
nearby gravel pit. It was a smooth landing and I got a compliment from
my copilot. It was midnight when we shutdown the engine at our tie-
down spot. I got out the cell phone to inform Shiv of our safe
arrival.

The next day, we got up to a drizzled morning. Metar reports
confirmed previous TAFs. It was a fun trip but we were glad to be
home. The night departure was a good decision. The sky was gray with
low ceilings. Even if we had a known-ice certified plane, no way that
we would have departed with the strong possibility of shooting the
approaches down to minimum. The new front was also a slow moving
one. It was low IFR weather all through Tuesday and Wednesday.

We were shocked to learn of the fatal plane crash just outside of
Stewart airport early Wednesday morning

http://tinyurl.com/22qt55

"MAYBROOK, N. Y. - The pilot was killed and two passengers injured in
the crash of a single-engine plane in the woods near Stewart
International Airport early Wednesday, authorities said.
The plane lost contact with controllers before 2 a.m. when it was
attempting a second landing at the airport following a failed first
approach, FAA spokesman Jim Peters said"

http://bbs.keyhole.com/ubb/showflat.php?Number=1057209

"One of the passengers told rescuers the pilot got disoriented in the
fog and was making an approach to Stewart when something went wrong"

I checked the Metar history at KSWF and several nearby airports at
http://www.uswx.com/us/stn/?code=c&n=999&stn=KTPL

METAR KSWF 210645Z 00000KT 1/4SM R09/3000FT FG OVC004 04/04 A3007
METAR KSWF 210745Z 00000KT 1/4SM R092200FT FG VV004 04/04 A3008

SPECI KPOU 210639Z AUTO 21003KT 1/2SM FG VV001 05/05 A3007 RMK AO2
METAR KPOU 210653Z AUTO 25004KT 1/2SM FG VV001 05/05 A3007 RMK AO2
SLP179 T00500050
SPECI KPOU 210738Z AUTO 00000KT 1/4SM FG VV001 04/04 A3008 RMK AO2 $

METAR KHPN 210656Z 31005KT 3SM BR SCT060 03/02 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP182
T00280022
METAR KHPN 210756Z 18004KT 3SM BR SCT060 04/03 A3005 RMK AO2 SLP180
T00390028

METAR KLGA 210551Z 29006KT 10SM CLR 08/05 A3008
METAR KLGA 210651Z 29004KT 10SM FEW090 SCT250 08/05 A3008 RMK AO2
SLP185 T00830050
METAR KLGA 210751Z 00000KT 10SM BKN080 07/05 A3006 RMK AO2 SLP180
T00720050

I came across another news source today
http://tinyurl.com/29zr58

"Authorities were uncertain yesterday if foggy weather played a role
in the crash. Early was an experienced pilot, they said, manning a
sophisticated 2003 aircraft equipped with complex navigation and
safety instruments. Fog would not necessarily pose a problem"

I have never flown a Cirrus SR20, but have aborted one approach
because of ground fog at Wurtsboro airport which was just across the
mountain ridge from Stewart few years ago. That night, the runway was
just a milky way; there was no way that I would have attempted any
kind of approaches. Of course, we have to wait for the NTSB report to
know the exact time and the possible cause of the crash. I could not
help but to wonder why the pilot attempted the approach in the fog
instead of diverting to nearby airports with better weather. However,
I had made few judgment errors in the last 6 years of flying, I could
see how the situation could have deteriorated slowly thus escaping the
pilot's awareness, how past successful experience could have led to
complacency and overestimation of one's capability and how
environmental pressure could have lured one into making bad
decision. The gethomeitis bug almost got us when we filed the IFR
flight plan last Monday. It was a good thing that we 'chickened' out
and waited for a good VFR timeframe window to fly home.

We had a wonderful Thanksgiving Day enjoying the company of our
daughter and her friend, but throughout the day I could not stop
thinking of the accident. My heart went out for the Early family. It
was a terrible accident. The lost of a loved one is part of life but
when the time of the lost is so close to a holiday, the pain is much
harder to bear. It is just so sad.

Hai Longworth