Making the safe decision (AKA "I hate AIRMET ZULU")

I'm parked at Barnes Muni (BAF) and I want to be home in ROC. But there
is a AIRMET ZULU for ice in the clouds and precipitation above the
freezing level, and there are low clouds layered up to the flight levels,
and the MEA is above the freezing level. So it looks like we're going to
be driving the rental car home, and I'll come back to get the plane in a
couple of days when the weather is clear.

--
Paul Tomblin http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
"Think?" I asked. "I don't think. I'm a witness. Someone asks me a
question, and I answer it as honestly as I can. How could I be on anyone's
*side*?" -- David P. Murphy, on his participation in a lawsuit

no way to head south ? it's looking a bit clearer down on the CT
coastline, perhaps you can make a great circle out of it and wind up
sneaking back into Rochester from somewhere else.

Sucks to have to drive, but better to be on the ground wishing you were
up there than vice versa.

good luck

Robert

Paul Tomblin wrote:
I'm parked at Barnes Muni (BAF) and I want to be home in ROC. But there
is a AIRMET ZULU for ice in the clouds and precipitation above the
freezing level, and there are low clouds layered up to the flight levels,
and the MEA is above the freezing level. So it looks like we're going to
be driving the rental car home, and I'll come back to get the plane in a
couple of days when the weather is clear.

In a previous article, Robert Chambers said:
no way to head south ? it's looking a bit clearer down on the CT
coastline, perhaps you can make a great circle out of it and wind up
sneaking back into Rochester from somewhere else.

The CIP icing models show some high probability over Rochester itself.
Being downwind of the lake is nothing but heartache in the cold weather.


--
Paul Tomblin http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
And on the seventh day, He exited from append mode.

Yeah I was thinking if you could get to Utica or somewhere a bit closer
than BAF. The drive would be shorter if you have to leave the plane
there and the drive back to retrieve the bird would be shorter as well.

I've been in icing myself exactly twice and that was 2 times more than I
needed. Each time it happened we got lower altitude and either a 180
out of it or vectors to an airport.

Taking the safest course of action is never a dumb move.

Robert

Paul Tomblin wrote:
In a previous article, Robert Chambers said:

no way to head south ? it's looking a bit clearer down on the CT
coastline, perhaps you can make a great circle out of it and wind up
sneaking back into Rochester from somewhere else.


The CIP icing models show some high probability over Rochester itself.
Being downwind of the lake is nothing but heartache in the cold weather.

In a previous article, Robert Chambers said:
Yeah I was thinking if you could get to Utica or somewhere a bit closer
than BAF. The drive would be shorter if you have to leave the plane
there and the drive back to retrieve the bird would be shorter as well.

As I was driving out of the parking lot at Barnes, there was a fair chunk
of blue sky to the west. I was really tempted to fly west and see how far
I could get VFR with maybe a popup IFR clearance for an approach somewhere
and rent a car there, and that's what I would have done if I were alone.
But my wife doesn't like the uncertainty of not knowing whether we're
going to find a rental car or a motel room.

On the drive home, we drove through some high hills with low clouds down
below the peaks and cold rain, and figured that being in the car was
probably the best decision. I'm just not sure when the conditions are
going to be conducive to bringing the plane home, and the club is NOT
going to be happy about that. I might go down on Wednesday and give it a
try to see how far I get.

--
Paul Tomblin http://xcski.com/blogs/pt/
"Legacy (adj): an uncomplimentary computer-industry epithet that
means 'it works'." -- Anthony DeBoer

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 01:37:41 +0000 (UTC), (Paul
Tomblin) wrote:

I'm just not sure when the conditions are
going to be conducive to bringing the plane home, and the club is NOT
going to be happy about that.

Yes, they would have been much happier had you become an icing accident.

Seriously, if the club is second guessing your decision, there's something
very wrong with the safety culture there.


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

Paul Tomblin wrote:
In a previous article, Robert Chambers said:

Yeah I was thinking if you could get to Utica or somewhere a bit closer
than BAF. The drive would be shorter if you have to leave the plane
there and the drive back to retrieve the bird would be shorter as well.


As I was driving out of the parking lot at Barnes, there was a fair chunk
of blue sky to the west. I was really tempted to fly west and see how far
I could get VFR with maybe a popup IFR clearance for an approach somewhere
and rent a car there, and that's what I would have done if I were alone.
But my wife doesn't like the uncertainty of not knowing whether we're
going to find a rental car or a motel room.

On the drive home, we drove through some high hills with low clouds down
below the peaks and cold rain, and figured that being in the car was
probably the best decision. I'm just not sure when the conditions are
going to be conducive to bringing the plane home, and the club is NOT
going to be happy about that. I might go down on Wednesday and give it a
try to see how far I get.

I flew from ELM to LEB on Friday for the weekend. Woke up at the hotel
in Montpelier, VT Sunday morning to 3" of snow! Luckily, as we drove
back south to the airport we ran out of snow and into light mist. I was
iffy on attempting the flight home given the low clouds and freezing
level, but a twin had departed shortly ahead of me for PA and reported
on top at 10,000 with no icing problems. So, I decided to take a look
and see how far I could get. Got a little rime at 6,000, but was soon
between layers and had a pretty uneventful fight home. I did have to
climb to 8,000 to stay between layers near Albany and eventually up to
10,000 to get on top prior to Binghamton, but the descent into ELM was
through a thin layer with no problems.

One just never knows in this part of the country this time of the year.
You certainly can't fault any decision to cancel a flight this time of
year in such conditions. I've flown a fair bit in this area and decided
the risk was acceptable, but I did have the ILS 18 back into Lebanon on
my approach clip as I was climbing out. :-)


Matt