Real stats on engine failures?

(Captain Wubba) wrote in message . com...
Andrew Rowley wrote in message . ..
Why do you exclude fuel exhaustion, fuel contamination etc? Don't they
happen if you're IFR?

If you're IFR or at night it doesn't really matter WHY it stops.

Because I can control these problems. If I do a proper preflight, the
probability of fuel contamination is very, very low. If I do the
proper fuel calculations and check the fuel levels and carry proper
reserves, I'm not going to run out of gas.

"Cap",

Just curious.

When you fill the tanks after each cross country flight, do you
calculate the fuel you actually had remaining, and compare it
to your calculated fuel reserve?

If so, have they ever disagreed?

I really don't want to go there again either -- this topic has been
thrashed out previously and anyone who cares could go Google for it,
but there are a number of factors which make fuel calculations for
a GA aircraft somewhat more uncertain than most pilots would apparently
like to believe.

These uncertainties include:
*aircraft parked on a slope while refueling
*aircraft tachometer not calibrated and no fuel flow meter
*leakage of fuel in flight
*OAT colder than expected or charted and pilot doesn't compensate
*and so forth

We've had our "ulp" moment where we landed safely and fueled,
and while we had legal reserves we in fact had considerably
less fuel than our proper calculations and preflight checking
led us to expect (for one or more of the above reasons), and
it would have bitten us on the butt if we'd had to exercise
"Plan B".

I don't disagree at all with the philosophy that one should
exercise control to minimize whatever risks one can.

I just feel that it's a mistake to conclude that no pilot
who runs out of fuel in flight did so, or that no pilot
who does so will ever run out of fuel in flight.

Regards,
Sydney

(Snowbird) wrote in message . com...
(Captain Wubba) wrote in message . com...
Andrew Rowley wrote in message . ..
Why do you exclude fuel exhaustion, fuel contamination etc? Don't they
happen if you're IFR?

If you're IFR or at night it doesn't really matter WHY it stops.

Because I can control these problems. If I do a proper preflight, the
probability of fuel contamination is very, very low. If I do the
proper fuel calculations and check the fuel levels and carry proper
reserves, I'm not going to run out of gas.

"Cap",

Just curious.

When you fill the tanks after each cross country flight, do you
calculate the fuel you actually had remaining, and compare it
to your calculated fuel reserve?

Not after every one. But after some percentage...probably around 1/4
of the time. I've caught one FBO that didn't give me all the fuel I
asked for this way. They were not trying to cheat me, but it was a
miscomminication with their lineboy. Wasn't a serious problem...I
always carry at least a 2 hour reserve (60 gallon tanks on a Beech
Musketeer that drinks 9 GPH), so I got in with one and a half hour
reserve instead of 2.5. Hard to notice how 10 gallons looks in a tank.

If so, have they ever disagreed?

Yep. In the case above, and when we were having carb problems. Part of
the reason we started suspsecting carb problems.



I really don't want to go there again either -- this topic has been
thrashed out previously and anyone who cares could go Google for it,
but there are a number of factors which make fuel calculations for
a GA aircraft somewhat more uncertain than most pilots would apparently
like to believe.

These uncertainties include:
*aircraft parked on a slope while refueling
*aircraft tachometer not calibrated and no fuel flow meter
*leakage of fuel in flight
*OAT colder than expected or charted and pilot doesn't compensate
*and so forth

Indeed. But I keep two hour reserves on cross country flights in my
Musketeer. No reason not to...it's almost always just me and my wife
(and soon our little one, so no reason not to carry plenty of
gas...when you have 6-hour tanks and a 3-hour bladder, you might as
well put the extra tank space to use


We've had our "ulp" moment where we landed safely and fueled,
and while we had legal reserves we in fact had considerably
less fuel than our proper calculations and preflight checking
led us to expect (for one or more of the above reasons), and
it would have bitten us on the butt if we'd had to exercise
"Plan B".

I don't disagree at all with the philosophy that one should
exercise control to minimize whatever risks one can.

I just feel that it's a mistake to conclude that no pilot
who runs out of fuel in flight did so, or that no pilot
who does so will ever run out of fuel in flight.

I didn't mean to imply that. But that's part of the risk management. I
eat lunch at the airport almost every day, sitting in the GA lot
watching the planes. And you would be stunned by the number of pilots
I see who don't do *any* preflight. We've had two fuel-exhaustion
crashes at my airport over the last decade or so. One unfortunately
killed two innocent people on the ground as well as the pilot. And
both were directly caused by *astounding* stupidity on the part of the
pilots. From reviewing the NTSB database, it appears the majority of
fuel-exhaustion accidents are not the result of a simple
miscalculation. They tend to be a chain of bad decisions (as do most
pilot-error accidents). An example is the one I mentioned above. A
pilot rented a 152, flew it out to Indiana for the day (1.5 hours),
flew a buddy around (45 minutes), then tried to fly back (2 hours)
fully aware that the tanks held 4 hours of fuel. He didn't want to pay
the higher prices at the Indiana airport. He wasn't night current, but
flew back at night. He ran out of gas, then tried to land *into*
traffic on a highway at night. Killed himself, and two women in the
minivan he flew into. Stunning stupidity all the way around.

I'm sure there are many fuel-exhaustion accidents that happen despite
good efforts by the pilot to be diligent. But I think they are much
less common than those that happen because the pilot abrogated his
responsibility to manage all of the risks he could.


Regards,
Sydney


Cheers,

Cap

(Captain Wubba) wrote in message . com...
(Snowbird) wrote in message . com...

(Captain Wubba) wrote in message . com...
Because I can control these problems. If I do a proper preflight, the
probability of fuel contamination is very, very low. If I do the
proper fuel calculations and check the fuel levels and carry proper
reserves, I'm not going to run out of gas.

When you fill the tanks after each cross country flight, do you
calculate the fuel you actually had remaining, and compare it
to your calculated fuel reserve?

Not after every one. But after some percentage...probably around 1/4
of the time. I've caught one FBO that didn't give me all the fuel I
asked for this way. They were not trying to cheat me, but it was a
miscomminication with their lineboy. Wasn't a serious problem...I
always carry at least a 2 hour reserve (60 gallon tanks on a Beech
Musketeer that drinks 9 GPH), so I got in with one and a half hour
reserve instead of 2.5. Hard to notice how 10 gallons looks in a tank.

Well, but I hope you can see here's the accident chain unfolding.
Now consider that you shot an instrument approach, went missed,
and flew to your alternate 1/2 hr away (you planned to land w/
your 2 hr reserve). Then you're asked to hold -- no problem,
you've got 2 hrs of fuel. Except more than an hour of it is actually
missing. Something similar was the big "white hair" moment
for me, except that we landed safely.

A practical suggestion though: buy a fuel stick, or simply tie a
lanyard to a paint stirrer. Start calibrating. You can do it as
a single step -- fly a tank dry, then fill it in 5 gallon increments
and measure. Or you can do it by sticking the tank, filling it, and
noting the stick reading and gallons. When you get enough data,
fit it (obviously care must be taken not to extrapolate outside the
data).

I can notice 10 missing gallons in my tank because we have a
calibrated fuel stick and unless the tanks are full to the brim,
it tells me what's in there to w/in a gallon or so.

Indeed. But I keep two hour reserves on cross country flights in my
Musketeer. No reason not to...it's almost always just me and my wife
(and soon our little one

Heh. Heh.

As the veteran of many XC trips with two adults and a little one,
let me predict you may shortly be asked to fit more stuff in the
plane than you've ever dreamed. You might even find it necessary
to leave some fuel behind -- unless your wife is a dedicated
Baby Minimalist who heads off for the weekend with a sling, a
diaperbag, and a bed rail. How is your W&B envelope? Might
want to start planning how much luggage you can take with your wife
and baby in the back seat....

I just feel that it's a mistake to conclude that no pilot
who runs out of fuel in flight did so, or that no pilot
who does so will ever run out of fuel in flight.

I didn't mean to imply that.

Good. I misunderstood you then. I thought you were singing another
refrain of the song "only stupid pilots run out of fuel, I'm a smart
pilot who always carries extra fuel so it'll never happen to me."

eat lunch at the airport almost every day, sitting in the GA lot
watching the planes. And you would be stunned by the number of pilots
I see who don't do *any* preflight.

I might well be. OTOH, is it also possible that the preflight took
place out-of-sight? For example, we preflight in the hangar..pull
over to the pumps and fuel up...park on the ramp. Now our pax arrive
and we go out on the ramp, help them in, and fly off. I suppose
it looks like we don't do *any* preflight.

From reviewing the NTSB database, it appears the majority of
fuel-exhaustion accidents are not the result of a simple
miscalculation. They tend to be a chain of bad decisions

I agree with the "chain of bad decisions" but I don't think
that excludes pilots who felt they were exercising due care
(and who maybe looked like they were, to a reasonable guy,
at the time -- the accident chain is always clearer w/
hindsight)

I know of two fuel exhaustion accidents personally. One
was eerily similar to the C152 accident you mention (pilot
flew 3 hrs in one direction with a tailwind and figured he
didn't need a fuel stop...overflew 3 airports selling fuel
at about 4 hrs flight time and ran out of gas 5 minutes
later. No accident...he did a perfect landing in a parking
lot).

The other involved a long chain, including an intermittant
problem with engine run-on, an oil change which masked signs
of a fuel leak, a high-wing plane with no convenient strut
or ladder, lack of a calibrated fuel stick, and a decision to
rely upon nearly 500 hrs of carefully documented past fuel
usage and buy partial fuel rather than fill the tanks at a
pricy fuel stop. The NTSB report places much more blame on
the pilot than I personally feel was merited, having been
there. The root cause of the accident was a trashy carburettor
overhaul.

I haven't personally reviewed the NTSB database on this topic,
so I have to defer to you there.

My only point is I think it's a lot easier to mismanage GA fuel
than some people appreciate, especially if you start needing
to make tradeoffs between fuel and load and/or you fly in IMC (I'll
leave the stupidity of flying IMC in a GA single for someone
else in another thread, *heh* *heh*)

Best,
Sydney