Reducing the Accident Rate

"Snowbird" wrote in message
om...
Hi All,

Just got back from the national convention of my type
club (insert glowing comments about beautiful planes,
wonderful people, fun activities, helpful FBO here)

So here's a topic related to Jay's thread "Scary". At
the membership meeting, the club's Safety Director rightly
pointed out something many here have commented on: every
GA accident is "news" these days, and if we want to keep
flying (and keep being able to buy insurance) we pilots,
as a group, need to lower the accident rate.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Although GA accidents are reported somewhat
hysterically by the news media, have the press reports led to a reduction in
my flying privileges? I don't think so.

With regard to insurance, I believe they respond to actuarial statistics,
not press reports. Assuming our collective accident rates don't change there
is no reason to assume insurance rates will change either - unless you are
saying the rates are already prohibitive and we need to lower them.

Safer planes will probably eventually start to make a difference, as the
fleet slowly upgrades. But this will take a long time, both for the
equipment upgrades and the training to use the equipment.

Most of the pilots who are taking off without proper respect
for DA or flying into ice/tstorms/IMC or buzzing their buddy's
house, I think, aren't coming to these things. Maybe I'm wrong?
Maybe they come, and think "oh, well, only ignorant low-hours
pilots have trouble when they try to run cows around with their
plane, I'm a super-skilled high-time pilot so *I* can do it just
fine" (insert analogous phrase about other activities)?

I wonder if this population of "cowboy pilots" is really significant. Sure
we have all run into one or two, but I'm sure the vast majority of pilots we
all meet are safety conscious and reasonably diligent. That said, even if
the cowboys are much more accident prone (which they probably are) the vast
majority of accidents probably happen to normal pilots who just find
themselves temporarily overmatched by some chain of events. Which is not at
all surprising. Almost everyone has, at some point, screwed up and cracked
up their car, boat, motorcycle. On a simpler level, we have all missed
appointments, dropped plates and broken bones. Perhaps we are already at the
point of "accidents happen" - it's just that in aviation the accidents tend
cause a higher price.

Anyway, FWIW, I suspect that the single biggest factor in reducing accidents
is to increase currency requirements, especially for IFR. That said, I
certainly don't want it to happen - I'll live with the current accident
rates and take my chances.


Michael

"Michael 182" wrote
I'm not sure I agree with this. Although GA accidents are reported somewhat
hysterically by the news media, have the press reports led to a reduction in
my flying privileges? I don't think so.

I think you are 100% right. The only erosion in our flying privileges
in recent history has been the result of things that happened with
airliners, not GA airplanes.

With regard to insurance, I believe they respond to actuarial statistics,
not press reports.

Rght again, and in reality the stock market has more impact on our
rates than the accident rate.

Safer planes will probably eventually start to make a difference, as the
fleet slowly upgrades. But this will take a long time, both for the
equipment upgrades and the training to use the equipment.

Another good point. Our airplanes are mostly designed to 1950's
safety standards - even most of the ones being built now. There have
been a few minor changes, but only a few. Mostly, that's the fault of
the FAA. It's so difficult and expensive to certify anything really
new that progress has ground to a halt. In fact, I would have to say
that the biggest factor in our high accident rate is the FAA. If we
ever get airplanes that are as up to date as a 1995 Honda Civic, the
situation will improve.

I wonder if this population of "cowboy pilots" is really significant. Sure
we have all run into one or two, but I'm sure the vast majority of pilots we
all meet are safety conscious and reasonably diligent. That said, even if
the cowboys are much more accident prone (which they probably are) the vast
majority of accidents probably happen to normal pilots who just find
themselves temporarily overmatched by some chain of events.

Again, I agree 100%. I know very few cowboy pilots, and most of them
are highly skilled and able to mostly offset their poor judgment with
excellent skill. I knew one cowboy pilot who wrecked an airplane; I
know MANY aviation safety counselors who have. We've all made
mistakes - combine them all into a single flight, and any of us would
have crashed. Both our airplanes and the national airspace system we
fly in are full of "gotchas" and sometimes even the best pilots are
not up to dealing with all the gotchas, especially when the weather
goes bad.

Anyway, FWIW, I suspect that the single biggest factor in reducing accidents
is to increase currency requirements, especially for IFR.

Again, I mostly agree (should I have simply quoted the whole post and
added "me too?"). It's not so much IFR as bad weather - wether you
choose to handle it by flying IFR in IMC or low VFR under IMC, the
workload increases dramatically over what is required to drone along
in clear and a million. Most pilots don't fly often enough to stay
proficient enough for that kind of flying. Restricting those pilots
to bluebird days certainly would lower the accident rate.

That said, I
certainly don't want it to happen - I'll live with the current accident
rates and take my chances.

Thank you for a voice of sanity.

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
Thank you for a voice of sanity.

Michael

lol - thank you - something I've rarely been accused of...

Michael

"Michael" wrote in message
om...

new that progress has ground to a halt. In fact, I would have to say
that the biggest factor in our high accident rate is the FAA. If we
ever get airplanes that are as up to date as a 1995 Honda Civic, the
situation will improve.

Homebuilts do not have a better safety record.

If you think a safer plane can be developed without FAA regulation, why
don't you buy or build an experimental airplane and install the appropriate
safety equipment so it is safer than your Twin Comanche?


--------------------
Richard Kaplan

www.flyimc.com