Reducing the Accident Rate

"Snowbird" wrote in message
om...
Hi All,

Just got back from the national convention of my type
club (insert glowing comments about beautiful planes,
wonderful people, fun activities, helpful FBO here)

So here's a topic related to Jay's thread "Scary". At
the membership meeting, the club's Safety Director rightly
pointed out something many here have commented on: every
GA accident is "news" these days, and if we want to keep
flying (and keep being able to buy insurance) we pilots,
as a group, need to lower the accident rate.

I'm not sure I agree with this. Although GA accidents are reported somewhat
hysterically by the news media, have the press reports led to a reduction in
my flying privileges? I don't think so.

With regard to insurance, I believe they respond to actuarial statistics,
not press reports. Assuming our collective accident rates don't change there
is no reason to assume insurance rates will change either - unless you are
saying the rates are already prohibitive and we need to lower them.

Safer planes will probably eventually start to make a difference, as the
fleet slowly upgrades. But this will take a long time, both for the
equipment upgrades and the training to use the equipment.

Most of the pilots who are taking off without proper respect
for DA or flying into ice/tstorms/IMC or buzzing their buddy's
house, I think, aren't coming to these things. Maybe I'm wrong?
Maybe they come, and think "oh, well, only ignorant low-hours
pilots have trouble when they try to run cows around with their
plane, I'm a super-skilled high-time pilot so *I* can do it just
fine" (insert analogous phrase about other activities)?

I wonder if this population of "cowboy pilots" is really significant. Sure
we have all run into one or two, but I'm sure the vast majority of pilots we
all meet are safety conscious and reasonably diligent. That said, even if
the cowboys are much more accident prone (which they probably are) the vast
majority of accidents probably happen to normal pilots who just find
themselves temporarily overmatched by some chain of events. Which is not at
all surprising. Almost everyone has, at some point, screwed up and cracked
up their car, boat, motorcycle. On a simpler level, we have all missed
appointments, dropped plates and broken bones. Perhaps we are already at the
point of "accidents happen" - it's just that in aviation the accidents tend
cause a higher price.

Anyway, FWIW, I suspect that the single biggest factor in reducing accidents
is to increase currency requirements, especially for IFR. That said, I
certainly don't want it to happen - I'll live with the current accident
rates and take my chances.


Michael