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Weather Question: forecasting clouds



 
 
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Old November 19th 04, 02:08 AM
Peter Duniho
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"Jonathan" wrote in message
news:cPand.115563$R05.55665@attbi_s53...
How can I find/figure out what the forecast cloud bases will be 3 or 4
days out?


Three or four days in advance? Forget it. It is impossible to KNOW what
the weather will be that far in advance.

I empathize with your desire to be able to better plan your flights. I wish
I could do the same for mine. But the truth is that there's simply no
reliable way to predict. The most practical solution is to simply plan the
flight as if the weather will be good enough, and provide yourself with a
backup plan in case the weather's not good enough.

Ultimately, the ONLY thing that matters with respect to a particular flight
is what the weather is doing right that moment. Even short-term forecasts
are frequently wrong, and the long-term forecasts you're talking about are
just plain unreliable.

There's a reason that official aviation weather services don't provide cloud
height forecasts three days in advance. The only reason that the commercial
services do is that the public loves to be told what will happen, even if it
turns out to be wrong. For some perverse reason, that's more acceptable
than being told "I don't know what will happen" (probably because being told
an incorrect forecast gives an individual the "right" to blame the bad
weather for their plans on the meteorologist).

Pete


 




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