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"Out of fuel, out of hope: 'Help, I'm in the water'"



 
 
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  #101  
Old April 30th 05, 02:41 AM
George Patterson
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Steven P. McNicoll wrote:

I don't know what his route was, but thirty minutes earlier he was probably
over land east of the lake.


No, he would have been well offshore. The lake is about 80 nm wide at that
point, and that's if you're traveling straight across. The news said he would
have been swimming against a 3 knot headwind, so he was fighting higher winds at
altitude. Unless his Archer could true at least 175 knots, he was over water 30
minutes earlier.

George Patterson
There's plenty of room for all of God's creatures. Right next to the
mashed potatoes.
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  #102  
Old April 30th 05, 02:43 AM
Steven P. McNicoll
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"George Patterson" wrote in message
news:[email protected]..

Weather considerations perhaps? I remember crossing the lake twice because
the area around Chicago was IMC with T-storms for a week.


I don't think so. We had high winds in the region over the weekend but no
significant weather.


  #103  
Old April 30th 05, 02:57 AM
George Patterson
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James Robinson wrote:

Given the time of the accident (close to midnight) I'm curious about
where he might have dropped in for fuel along the way at that time of
night.


Grand Rapids is probably the closest to his route on the east side of the lake.
He would've passed right over Muskegon, but it closes at 9:00.

George Patterson
There's plenty of room for all of God's creatures. Right next to the
mashed potatoes.
  #104  
Old April 30th 05, 03:05 AM
Jon Kraus
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Amen brother... I don't believe in coincidences any more nor am I a
religious zealot... I just KNOW that I am being cared for... :-)

JK

Gene Seibel wrote:

Certainly a leading candidate in my book for who placed it there.
--
Gene Seibel
Gene & Sue's Aeroplanes - http://pad39a.com/gene/planes.html
Because we fly, we envy no one.


  #105  
Old April 30th 05, 03:07 AM
George Patterson
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Matt Barrow wrote:

Has anyone ever seen a small inflatable raft (2-4 person) that would be
small enough to carry onboard an aircraft?


Yep. There are lots of them on the market. In a situation such as this, even the
cheapest stuff sold at the local Sports Authority would've been a life saver.

George Patterson
There's plenty of room for all of God's creatures. Right next to the
mashed potatoes.
  #106  
Old April 30th 05, 03:13 AM
Steven P. McNicoll
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"George Patterson" wrote in message
news:[email protected]..

No, he would have been well offshore. The lake is about 80 nm wide at that
point, and that's if you're traveling straight across. The news said he
would have been swimming against a 3 knot headwind, so he was fighting
higher winds at altitude. Unless his Archer could true at least 175 knots,
he was over water 30 minutes earlier.


You might want to run that problem again. On a direct route from Hamilton
NY to Watertown WI the lake is about 68 nm wide, not 80. According to the
NTSB he went down six miles east of the lakeshore, so the dry tanks point
was a few miles further east and dependant on altitude. He probably crossed
about 55-60 miles of the lake. The book cruise speed of the Archer II is
139 ktas but he was probably achieving something a bit less than that. The
winds at altitude are also unknown. He may have been over water 30 minutes
prior to engine stoppage, but he was certainly not well offshore.


  #107  
Old April 30th 05, 03:19 AM
Matt Barrow
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"Jon Kraus" wrote in message
...
Sounds like the grace of God to me... Well placed bit of turbulence my
ass.... Somone was looking out for you...



Maybe...but I was over the eastern slope of the Rockies, so turbulence is
rather common that time of day. Even at 10,500 I was only about 2000 feet
AGL when roused from my slumber.


There are loads of stories about pilots that fell asleep and wound up in
farmers fields. Usually, they were several hundred miles from their
destinations when they ran out of fuel and woke up in time to deadstick it
in.

I also recall pilots that dozed off and flew out over the ocean, only to run
out far from shore. I recall one that woke up when he was maybe 300 miles
out over the Atlantic and when he woke he had enough fuel left for about 100
miles (not sure of the numbers, but a similar ratio). Even though he was in
contact with ATC for quite a few minutes, and they got a good triangulation
on him, they never found the wreckage.

I wonder how many CFIT crashes were pilots falling asleep.

OTOH, our family doctor (Dr. Shad was his name...funny the things you
remember) when I was a kid (maybe 8 or so) had a plane and disappeared over
Lake Michigan near Chicago while returning from somewhere back east. That
was the early 60's.


Jon Kraus
'79 Mooney 201

Gene Seibel wrote:
That's one I haven't done. Came close to sleeping when Sue was flying
the other day, but even that is difficult for me. That well placed bit
of turbulence was certainly a good thing for you.



A "Lifesaver" you could say! :~)


--
Gene Seibel
Tales of Flight - http://pad39a.com/gene/tales.html
Because I fly, I envy no one.





  #108  
Old April 30th 05, 03:27 AM
Peter R.
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Jon Kraus wrote:

Amen brother... I don't believe in coincidences any more nor am I a
religious zealot... I just KNOW that I am being cared for... :-)


So, who was caring for that 20 year-old who ditched in the lake?

--
Peter


















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  #109  
Old April 30th 05, 03:34 AM
Matt Barrow
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"Peter R." wrote in message
...
Jon Kraus wrote:

Amen brother... I don't believe in coincidences any more nor am I a
religious zealot... I just KNOW that I am being cared for... :-)


So, who was caring for that 20 year-old who ditched in the lake?


Whoever it was, they musta been on a break!





  #110  
Old April 30th 05, 03:37 AM
George Patterson
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Steven P. McNicoll wrote:

You might want to run that problem again. On a direct route from Hamilton
NY to Watertown WI the lake is about 68 nm wide, not 80.


I've measured the sectional three times now. He went down just east of
Milwaukee, and I get 81 nm from Milwaukee to the east bank.

George Patterson
There's plenty of room for all of God's creatures. Right next to the
mashed potatoes.
 




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