Article: Older pilots crashing in disproportionate numbers

Satistics can usually provide whatever answer you were seeking.

For example, the stats indicate the older pilots are more likely to be
involved in an accident relative to their ratio to the entire population.
Nothing in there about flying time. Maybe older pilots fly more because they
worked during their younger years to earn some freedom. More flying time -
more exposure to the same level of risk as the younger crowd.

I'm not saying that the conclusion of the report is wrong. Just that it
means nothing to me without more data.

My uncle quit flying in his 50's. He had been flying for many years. Owned
several single-engine planes. Still very capable but he took off with the
gust lock on the rudder. Landed safely and never went back.


I'm sure that there is a trade off in getting older. More experience. Better
ability to anticipate. Slower reaction time. More snoozing while Otto
drives. I plan to keep flying until it takes me at least three hops to get
up on the step. Well that's my plan anyway...

--
-------------------------------
Travis
"Matt Barrow" wrote in message
...

"David CL Francis" wrote in message
I confess I am an older driver. But over the years I have watched myself
and others and come to the conclusion that reaction time is not the most
important factor. The most important aptitude required, in my opinion,
is anticipation. That is the ability to notice and react to personal
predictions of the short term future and to recognise potential hazards
before they need _any_ significant reaction time.

Funny how often those predictions are wrong (one way or the other).

Is that why older drivers speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down, speed
up...slam on brakes...?

Works great on a freeway...which I notice many older drivers do tend to
use...during rush hour...in the left lanes...


If reaction time was all important then (this true in the UK) the 18 - 25
year old group of male drivers would not pay high premiums nor have
higher accident rates then any other. That group tend to have a high
opinion of their own skills and are more likely to take unnecessary
risks.

Note this next paragraph.


Distraction from the job in hand can be dangerous. I always cringe when I
watch drivers in movies look at their front seat passenger for long
seconds!

Now put those last two together and see what you come up with.

(PS: No one said reaction time is ALL important)
--
Matt
---------------------
Matthew W. Barrow
(13 years in traffic engineering)

On Tue, 21 Mar 2006 at 07:13:45 in message
, Matt Barrow
wrote:

"David CL Francis" wrote in message
I confess I am an older driver. But over the years I have watched myself
and others and come to the conclusion that reaction time is not the most
important factor. The most important aptitude required, in my opinion, is
anticipation. That is the ability to notice and react to personal
predictions of the short term future and to recognise potential hazards
before they need _any_ significant reaction time.

Funny how often those predictions are wrong (one way or the other).

Is that why older drivers speed up, slow down, speed up, slow down, speed
up...slam on brakes...?

Who says they do?

Works great on a freeway...which I notice many older drivers do tend to
use...during rush hour...in the left lanes...


You sound a bit like my son-in-law in his most provocative mode.

Frankly I was unable to solve the object of your reply. What the above 3
little paragraphs mean I am unable to determine. Perhaps I can try to
clarify prediction a little and think about sports like tennis baseball,
cricket, squash and many others. Skilled players seem have a built in
unconscious prediction system as their available reaction times are
insufficient to explain their skills.

If reaction time was all important then (this true in the UK) the 18 - 25
year old group of male drivers would not pay high premiums nor have higher
accident rates then any other. That group tend to have a high opinion of
their own skills and are more likely to take unnecessary risks.

Note this next paragraph.


Distraction from the job in hand can be dangerous. I always cringe when I
watch drivers in movies look at their front seat passenger for long
seconds!

Now put those last two together and see what you come up with.

I come up with nothing. As far as I am concerned they are both comments
on all driving.

(PS: No one said reaction time is ALL important)

Someone certainly implied it with his proposals for throwing balls at
people unexpectedly.

There is a little phrase that I came across for you,
"A good driver is one who makes the same mistakes as you do."
--
David CL Francis