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On Sun, 30 Apr 2006 13:35:29 -0500, Greg Copeland
wrote: On Wed, 05 Apr 2006 16:16:19 -0400, Roger wrote: On Tue, 04 Apr 2006 21:15:11 -0500, Greg Copeland wrote: Except we don't irrigate for corn so that makes the crop output highly dependent on nature. Here in Michigan we don't use a lot of pesticides on corn. Herbicides yes, pesticides no. Except that is exactly the point. A bad crop year for corn means through the roof ethanol prices. Hemp, on the other hand, continues to grow rather well while corn is hardly growing at all. Thus, hemp = stable fuel market; corn = unstable fuel market. I do believe they irrigate corn in the central states, but even then a dry year (or wet) would raise the growing cost considerably with a corresponding reduction in yield.. If hemp produced twice as much alcohol for about a 1/3 less cost to the farmer you'd be getting about 2.56 gallons fore every gallon used in the production cycle although I don't know how much energy is used in the actual production. the costs associated with the crop and cause volatility in the price of corn at market. Furthermore, hemp can grow is almost all zones within the US. Corn can not. Hemp can certainly grow in a much wider area although corn will do well in a wide range of temperatures. It will not do well with too much or too little rain though and that is what limits its growing range/area. As I understand it's more difficult to get it to quit growing rather than to get it to grow. That's correct. This is why "ditch weed" is still found and killed in the US. For those that don't know, "ditch weed" is hemp planted to help the war effort during WWII. Actually I don't think you can eradicate the stuff. To be clear, hemp is NOT pot!! I can not stress this enough! In fact, And just when I thought you'd come up with a good and legal reason I could make a good living off that 40 acres. Unfortunately you need to convince our congress critters of that. Currently if it even has a trace of TCP? to them it's bad even if it's so little as to be unrecoverable, or useable in any form. They've actually passed the break even point, but only by about 50% depending on which study you read. So you get 1.56 gallons out for every gallon you put in to raise and process the stuff which is not a very good figure. I would enjoy reading any current news on this. Please share if you can. The last I read, using the very, very, very latest technology, which was Michigan State University did a recent study that came out positive although it may take some digging to find the study and the parameters under which it was taken. To me the parameters are the qualifying criteria by whether a study can be judged valid. Most studies are commissioned, or undertaken with specific criteria given to a supposedly independent, unbiased facility. Coming up with he true cost of producing a crop from field preparation, to sale at the elevator is difficult and a bit tricky. Taxes (property, sales, fuel, and even income), subsidies, fuel, deprecation on equipment, and labor all need to be factored in. not practical for for any scalable deployment, was just only reaching break even. You need to be careful about some of the studies which claim high returns for corn. All of them that I've read conviently forget to The problem looking at "studies" is not having the ability to judge which ones, _if_any_, are valid. The results vary from a substantial net negative energy return to a substantial net positive return. Only one actually showed a large return. include the fuel used to plant, grow, spray, and harvet (or some part-of) and only include the energy required for conversion. Based on the numbers you're tossing out, I'd bet this is the case; probably pushed forward by corn farmers. A more typical corn based effort is actually yeilding something between 70-80% of what's required to deliver. And that's the problem. there's a lot of information out there with little of it agreeing with any of the other while some is outright contradictory. currently subsidised (on both ends of the economy!!), making it very expensive for us, the consumer. Hemp based ethanol can be produced at small scales around $1.50 - $2.00 a gallon. Research is under way to further reduce the costs...but keep in mind, we're talking about small scale production at this point. With better technology, it is thought the price can be reduced to $1.05 - $1.25 a gallon in the near future. These prices are based on hemp cellulose enzymatic conversions. I should add here, "near future", means within a decade or two...not tomorrow or day after tomorrow. ...just so we're on the same page. I was a project manager in industry. "Near future" really doesn't have a meaning outside of press releases when used in the context we normally see. Those alternative energy break throughs being touted have been "just around the corner" ever since the shortages in the 70's. With almost all current alternative fuels and the present technology the break even point comes at closer to $3.50 a gallon here in the states with subsidies taken into account. I don't have numbers to debate here and flatly, I believe it's in the ballpark...but keep in mind, I'm 100% sure hemp is exluded from those I'm only aiming for the stadium, not a particular base:-)) It's basically impossible to find definitive figures to pin any of this down. No matter where you get them and from who ever, there will be some one who can find equally valid and contradictory numbers. numbers! So be sure to keep that in mind! Having said that, I've never read anything which equated it to price per gallon but rather price per barrel of oil. Typically, alternate fuels become viable between $50-$60; When it comes to production they look at what it takes to get a useful net energy gain first. The amount of energy required to drill the well, pump the oil, refine it, and then get it to the consumer is about 10% of the final yield. So, although dirty it is by far the most efficient energy source. Unfortunately it gives us a tremendous net gain in atmospheric CO2, SO2, and other pollutants. We also use so much that a major portion has to be imported which makes the US and much of Europe dependent on the oil producing nations. That in itself makes for some grand political problems. which is required to support an emerging market. Once a market becomes viable, it's said the prices can fall from there. Given that we already Much depends on the definition of "viable" and who is doing the defining:-)). There are some alternative fuels that look great at present that just will not scale up well. For instance, creating biodeisel from waste works well on a relatively small scale, but it's already requiring the soy oil. Soybeans are an expensive product. I wish we could raise them every year. Those and sugar beets. Fuel cells and Hydrogen. Even given that the Metal Hydrides make the storage and transportation of the stuff safer than gas; H2 can be inexpensive to make (given clean fresh water and electricity), but it gets expensive in a hurry when scaled up. OTOH fuel cells have been developed that can burn most any burnable liquid but they like much other technology is waiting for the break through just around the corner. Total electric cars are fantastic on a small scale, but we do not have the technology, or power grid to have more than a small percent of our fleet all electric. see barrel prices in or above that range now and gas price is not $3.50 a gallon, I suspect the number you're quoting is somewhat inflated. That is indeed possible, but I think when rising costs/inflation, supply and demand, as well as the cost of scaling up new technology and then looking at the expected investment versus the return I think by the time we can actually produce alternative fuels on a large (read useful) scale those will be valid numbers. You might ask, why haven't alternatives already appeared on the market then? When, volatliity, which the oil companies manipulate and history assure, prevent the creation of alternatives as an emerging market. Now that barrel prices are up and look as if they will not be falling below the magic $50-$60 (let's say $60) mark...suddenly you are seeing a lot of R&D into alternatives. No argument at all. The long of the short, if the law was changed in the US, hemp may yet prove to be a viable fuel alternative. Currently, any product containing some fractional amount (sorry, don't remember the amount) of THC is illegal in the US. Despite this, large scale ("larger" scale may be more We have a number of "zero tolerance" idiots running states and passing bills ... unfortunately. Well, I honestly doubt this ban on hemp stems from "zero tolerance idiots". Historically, hemp was banned by lobbiest form, surprise, chemical and petrochemical companies. Thing about it...hemp completes with just about every significant market petrolium products do. Fibers (rope to clothes); check. Oil (cooking and lubriation); check. Fuel (ethanol and biofuels); check. Depending on equipment, and contracts for sale (as in sugar beets) the conversion to hemp should be relatively easy for the farmer. In addition, corn takes more out of the land than most other crops and requires time for the soil to recover. As corn is of the same family I'd assume that hemp takes quite a bit out of the soil, but I don't know that. That's a good point. I don't know. But, since hemp can grow in many more places than corn, it's a lot easier to rotate hemp to different locations to allow for recovery than is even possible with corn. As is my understanding, the most recent data available on this type of change dates back to the turn of the century with the introduction of the peanut as a viable agricultural crop. We know from that experience, it was not a painless endeavor; becoming possible, thanks mostly to Mr. Carver giving spirit. George Washington Carver, but you are talking something far more involved than introducing the peanut to agriculture and in today's markets on a scale that is difficult to compare. Let's not be so hasty here. Surprisingly, the peanut as a crop took, if I remember right, some decade to become viable. Of course, there were a lot It did and he basically had to create the uses for the oil before the crop became viable if I remember my history correctly. of other variables there which need not apply today. Having said that, the peanut is the closest crop we can compare...which is why we have so many unknowns today when talking about hemp as a new crop...especially since the potential market impact is profound. OTOH I think the processing plants and disposal of byproducts from processing, getting the alcohol into the sales chain on a large scale, and phasing in the vehicles to use the stuff (Usually E85) will be the big hurtle. The farming should be the easy part. I do have to give GM credit in their adds for E85. They are sticking with the "clean fuel" rather than any claiming any big energy savings, or as least the adds I've seen. Alcohol is clean burning and it doesn't add any new CO2 to the atmosphere. However I don't see corn alcohol as being a viable fuel to wean us off imported oil. IF the figures I have are correct and there really is a net energy gain of about 50% on alcohol, when compared to the energy required to produce gas from crude is about 2,000 times more efficient. It takes one gallon of crude to produce the energy to produce 10 gallons of gas. While it takes one gallon of alcohol to produce a gain of 1/2 gallon. This does not take into account that there is much less energy in alcohol as well. I looked it up a couple weeks ago, but have forgotten the actual number, but I think pure alcohol only contains about 40% of the energy in a gallon of gas. So, as a comparison based on a poor memory, if we use one million barrels of gas a day we'd need over two million barrels of Alcohol to get the same energy. Or course we use a lot more than a million barrels a day. Which is exactly why Canada is currently conducting studies on this exactly subject. There are a lot of unknowns and Canada is looking for answers. Lastly, hemp is edible! Hemp can be used for clothing. Hemp can also Some how that produces the mental image of chewing on a piece of rope.:-)) Yes it's a big green plant through part of its life cycle that contains a protein rich sap if I remember correctly. be used for cooking oils (not as nice tasting as corn oil AFAIK), biofuels, machine lubricants, and probably many other uses I'm forgetting. Meaning, hemp can actually hemp grow an economy rather then be part of an economic down turn; like corn. Another item. Hemp is far easer to harvest than corn. Processing is a different story. Like with crude oil you have to make choices during the production run. It's doubtful it'd become popular for cooking, or as a human food but there are many other uses as you stated that could wring the last penny per pound out of the stuff. Agreed. At least here in the US. Do keep in mind, in some parts of the world, hemp is already used in the food chain. Perhaps a new export crop? I dunno. There are so many alternatives and so much information along with the politicians rooting (sounds like pigs doesn't it) for their own districts. Who knows how much is spin and how much is reality? No mater how we look at it I don't see the likely hood of any really useful alternative energy sources on a large scale for some time. That leaves the general public with the necessity of learning how to conserve. Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member) (N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair) www.rogerhalstead.com Greg |
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