Cirrus... is it time for certification review?

"john smith" wrote in message
...
With the recent spate of Cirrus accidents, the question arises, "Is it
time for a special certification review?"


Any aircraft has a baseline accident rate. I think the Cirrus has a higher
accident rate because a handful of pilots get themselves into a mindset
where they are willing to enter conditions they would have not entered
without the big round "insurance policy". Often they get away with pushing
things. Sometimes they don't, and those accidents are the ones that are
taking the Cirrus accident rate to higher than predicted levels.

The problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes.

"Kyle Boatright" wrote:

With the recent spate of Cirrus accidents, the question arises, "Is it
time for a special certification review?"


The problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes.

Simple answers are usually the correct one. The pilot is the problem.

Ron Lee

"Kyle Boatright" wrote in message
. ..
Any aircraft has a baseline accident rate. I think the Cirrus has a
higher accident rate because a handful of pilots get themselves into a
mindset where they are willing to enter conditions they would have not
entered without the big round "insurance policy". Often they get away
with pushing things. Sometimes they don't, and those accidents are the
ones that are taking the Cirrus accident rate to higher than predicted
levels.

The problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes.

I've yet to see anyone document an accident rate that is actually higher
than might be expected (never mind "predicted"...who has predicted a
specific accident rate for the Cirrus, and why should we believe that
prediction?).

A quick NTSB database search shows in the last six months 4 accidents (2
fatal) involving a Cirrus SR20, and 52 (5 fatal) involving a Cessna 172.
The SR22 was involved in 7 accidents (2 fatal), while the Cessna 182 was
involved in 36 (6 fatal).

One might say that the fatal accident rate seems disproportionate (50% of
the SR20, 25% for the SR22 versus 10% for the 172 and 20% for the 182), but
at the sample sizes present, there's absolutely no reasonable way to draw
any valid statistical conclusion (and note that for the SR22 and the 182,
the rates are actually similar).

The fact is, none of these airplanes are actually involved in fatal
accidents all that often, and the absolute numbers for overall accidents are
significantly lower for the Cirrus types than for comparable Cessna types
(of course, with a presumably much smaller fleet size, that's to be
expected, even without accounting for differences in utilization).

So, it seems to me that before we start throwing around statements like "the
problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes", it ought to be established
that there *is* a problem in the first place.

Pete

"Peter Duniho" wrote:

So, it seems to me that before we start throwing around statements like "the
problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes", it ought to be established
that there *is* a problem in the first place.

Pete

Pete, from the reports I have seen about Cirrus crashes it is clearly
pilot error. Of course the same probably applies to all aircraft
types.

Ron Lee

Looks like the Cirrus just gets more puplicity than the rest. I think its
because of the chute. They figure it shoudn't crash.

Aluckyguess wrote:
Looks like the Cirrus just gets more puplicity than the rest. I think its
because of the chute. They figure it shoudn't crash.



I think that is some truth to that. I'm waiting for the lawsuit about
the chute that didn't save someone's loved one from themselves. Just as
Piper was sued over their automatic gear extension system and quit using
it, I suspect it is just a matter of time for Cirrus.

Our legal system is completely dysfunctional.

Matt

"Ron Lee" wrote in message
...
So, it seems to me that before we start throwing around statements like
"the
problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes", it ought to be established
that there *is* a problem in the first place.

Pete, from the reports I have seen about Cirrus crashes it is clearly
pilot error. Of course the same probably applies to all aircraft
types.

Yes, it does. I guess I should clarify that I am interpreting the statement
"the problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes" to mean that the Cirrus
has an unusual problem with the pilots as compared to other airplanes. I
agree that the statement "the problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes"
applies to pretty much any airplane. In that respect, the Cirrus is no
different from any other similar airplanes.

Pete

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"Ron Lee" wrote in message
...
So, it seems to me that before we start throwing around statements like
"the
problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes", it ought to be
established
that there *is* a problem in the first place.

Pete, from the reports I have seen about Cirrus crashes it is clearly
pilot error. Of course the same probably applies to all aircraft
types.

Yes, it does. I guess I should clarify that I am interpreting the
statement
"the problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes" to mean that the
Cirrus
has an unusual problem with the pilots as compared to other airplanes. I
agree that the statement "the problem is with the pilots, not the
airplanes"
applies to pretty much any airplane. In that respect, the Cirrus is no
different from any other similar airplanes.

Pete

I guess that is why they have type ratings. Rather than a certification
review should there be a "type rating" required for a Cirrus. Wouldn't that
be a slippery slope.

Howard

"Peter Duniho" wrote in message
...
"Kyle Boatright" wrote in message
. ..

snip

So, it seems to me that before we start throwing around statements like
"the problem is with the pilots, not the airplanes", it ought to be
established that there *is* a problem in the first place.

Pete

Flying magazine (or AOPA?.. dunno) ran the numbers a year or so ago and
compared the accident rate between Cirrus and competitive models. I don't
have a copy at hand, but there was a significant difference in accidents
with Cirrus having a much higher rate than the other A/C.

KB

In article ,
"Kyle Boatright" wrote:

Flying magazine (or AOPA?.. dunno) ran the numbers a year or so ago and
compared the accident rate between Cirrus and competitive models. I don't
have a copy at hand, but there was a significant difference in accidents
with Cirrus having a much higher rate than the other A/C.

And in the past year, the numbers have gotten worse.
Accidents and incidents (from theFAA and NTSB databases)
1998 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006
SR20 1 0 2 3 0 1 2 7
SR22 - - 2 2 3 8 12 15