How dangerous is soaring?

How dangerous is soaring? Is that even the right question?

My glider is safe. It's tucked away in my garage going nowhere. It's not
going to crash - at least until I fly it. Gliders don't crash, they require
a pilot to crash them. Long ago in the early days of flying it was said
that the weakest link in aviation safety is the "loose nut on the control
stick" meaning the pilot. Pogo said, "We have met the enemy and he is us".

The above is not to denigrate anyone alive or dead. In fact, it's a cut and
paste from an e-mail exchange with Stu Kissel. He thought it was a good
observation.

Pilots can sometimes be described as safe or unsafe. Mostly, there're
somewhere in between. Being human, pilots have good days and bad days. For
a pilot, a bad day can be really bad.

Soaring is neither safe nor unsafe - it's just very unforgiving. If you
aren't rock solid sure of your skills, get a second opinion - fly with an
instructor. In fact, even if you are sure, fly with one anyway. Check
rides fall in the category of "cheap insurance." If you are like nost of us
and fly only 20 or so times a year, your skills will fade so schedule
checkrides twice a year. Your insturctor will appreciate the business - and
applaud your good judgement.

Soaring is mostly done solo. We expect a pilot, alone n the sky, under
significant stress, to function at a very high level with no backup of any
kind. Recently, a very unsettling medical news item said that 50% of the
people in the general population over age 50 had experienced at least one
episode of unexplained loss of consiousness. That makes one think about
2-seaters and a second pilot. It makes me think of Stu.

My condolences to everyone - we're all family.

Bill Daniels

I couldn't imagine life without the smile of a pretty girl, a field of
wildflowers, the majesty of mountain ranges, fall colors, the first snow,
and of course soaring.

You weigh the risks, you mitigate what you can, you accept those that seem
managable or are worth it.

YES

bumper

On Oct 30, 9:14 pm, "bumper" wrote:
I couldn't imagine life without the smile of a pretty girl, a field of
wildflowers, the majesty of mountain ranges, fall colors, the first snow,
and of course soaring.

You left out gadgets Bumper....

Every so often a thread like this gets started on the
UK ras. Normally it's a reporter looking for a story
to sensationalise. We mostly ignore it and don't give
them any ammo

Gliding is a Risk Sport, as are Motor Racing and Rallying,
Downhill Skiing, Motor Cycling and Mountaineering (all
of which I have tried at some point in my life). The
point is how you manage the risk and how rewarding
you find the activity! Gliding can be as safe or as
dangerous as you want to make it, with low level cross-countries
and mountain flying being riskier than high level local
soaring.

If you fly as your instructor taught you, don't fly
into impossible situations, and above all keep a good
look out for other aircraft, your risks of sudden death
are greatly reduced.

All human activities, driving, crossing the road, etc.,
carry some small degree of risk. Gliding is actually
statistically considerably safer than Horse Riding,
which does not generally seem to be regarded as risky.


Del C

At 01:06 03 November 2007, Danlj wrote:
On Oct 31, 7:41 pm, Bob Kuykendall wrote:
...clip...

Observe that the numbers for gliders are 19.45 accidents
per 100,000
hours flown, with 5.07 fatal accidents per 100,000
hours. That's
second only to amateur-built aircraft, with 21.6 and
5.5 respectively.

Contrast that with the numbers for single-engine piston-powered
airplanes with 7.91 accidents and 1.41 fatal accidents
per 100,000
hours. In 2003 at least, gliders had 245% more accidents
and 360% more
fatal accidents per hour than the puddle-jumpers that
comprise the
majority of the US general aviation fleet
....clip...

As concerns comparisons between the accident rates
of flying and
driving, I defer to this analysis by Harry Mantakos:
http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flyin...vsdriving.html

Given those numbers, I normally feel fairly confident
when I say that
soaring is much more dangerous than driving, and is
perhaps comparable
to riding a motorcycle. ...clip...

The fatalities-per-hoiur statistics in soaring were
presented at SSA a
couple of years ago, and Judge McWhorter, sitting next
to me, compared
it to the fatality rate in coal mining, a famously
risky occupation.
Judge quickly calculated in his head that soaring has
about a five-
fold greater fatality rate per hour than coal miners.

But he's a mining-safety expert; his next point was
not that coal
mining is too dangerous, or that soaring is too dangerous,
but that
formal safety practices, taught and followed with discipline,
reduce
the fatality experience rate tremendously in coal mining,
and would in
soaring also.

The key to devising safety practices is understanding
the behavior and
circumstances that increase the incidence of deadly
accidents (we call
them 'accidents' because the participants had no intention
of having
them).

The key to making safety practices effective is to
follow them with
discipline and understanding.

Now, the caveat is that we can ultimately control only
our own
behavior; we merely influence others, which is not
the same thing. So
we then need to understand also to what extent we are
at risk from
others' foolishness or ignorance, or from uncontrollable
factors.

In this regard, a colleague stopped riding motorcycle
completely,
during college, when he discovered a statistic that
said that 2/3 of
motorcycle accidents are due to autos turning left
in front of the
motorcycle. Most of the risk was beyond his control,
and he wanted to
matriculate through medical school with intact brain
and spinal cord.

Another factor is tolerable risk. Several posters
have alluded to
this: a single parent with small children will have
little tolerance
for personal risk, for the sake of the children. Others
have more
room. I'm not here to deride either.

And fear itself is an very aversive emotion. Whether
or not the fear
is rational, it's real, and it's distracting. One
sensible response
to fear is withdrawal from the situation. If this
means to stop
soaring, so be it, for that person. For others, it
stimulates
additional study or training, or a change in location
or practices.
So be it.

Thanks for listening.

DJ

On Nov 3, 5:07 am, Del C wrote
Gliding is actually statistically considerably safer than Horse Riding,
which does not generally seem to be regarded as risky.

What are the horse riding statistics and what are they based on based
on? Hours in the saddle or something else? Do horse riders log and
report the hours they ride to some controlling authority that compiles
the statistics? Are the statistics broken down into the many types of
horse riding?

I suspect there is very poor data on the time exposure to most of the
risks that kill people, except of course total hours lived prior to
the fatal event.

Andy

There's statistics, then there's damned statistics,
and then there's liars.

Your chances of having an accident are 1 in 2; either
you will or you won't. Same is true of rope breaks,
of mid-airs, smothering in your sleep, or whatever.
It is up to you each and every time to prevent it.
Be wary!

At 14:12 03 November 2007, Andy wrote:
On Nov 3, 5:07 am, Del C wrote
Gliding is actually statistically considerably safer
than Horse Riding,
which does not generally seem to be regarded as risky.

What are the horse riding statistics and what are they
based on based
on? Hours in the saddle or something else? Do horse
riders log and
report the hours they ride to some controlling authority
that compiles
the statistics? Are the statistics broken down into
the many types of
horse riding?

I suspect there is very poor data on the time exposure
to most of the
risks that kill people, except of course total hours
lived prior to
the fatal event.

Andy

Nyal Williams wrote:
There's statistics, then there's damned statistics,
and then there's liars.

Your chances of having an accident are 1 in 2; either
you will or you won't.

You are confusing "probability" with "possibility". The chances are 3 in
4 of it attracting posts like this one, that discuss probability instead
of safety. I think even Tom Knauff stopped saying that.

Same is true of rope breaks,
of mid-airs, smothering in your sleep, or whatever.
It is up to you each and every time to prevent it.
Be wary!

But your advice is good.

--
Eric Greenwell - Washington State, USA
* Change "netto" to "net" to email me directly
* "Transponders in Sailplanes" http://tinyurl.com/y739x4
* "A Guide to Self-launching Sailplane Operation" at www.motorglider.org

Number of fatalies and serious injuries per year divided
by the number of participants. I don't think horse
riders are required to log their time in the saddle!


Incidentally, actor Christopher Reeves (aka Superman)
was an active glider pilot, but was paralysed from
the neck down and ultimately died at an early age as
the direct result of a horse riding accident. I guess
that sort of proves my point on a non statistically
significant sample of 1.

Del C

At 14:12 03 November 2007, Andy wrote:
On Nov 3, 5:07 am, Del C wrote
Gliding is actually statistically considerably safer
than Horse Riding,
which does not generally seem to be regarded as risky.

What are the horse riding statistics and what are they
based on based
on? Hours in the saddle or something else? Do horse
riders log and
report the hours they ride to some controlling authority
that compiles
the statistics? Are the statistics broken down into
the many types of
horse riding?

I suspect there is very poor data on the time exposure
to most of the
risks that kill people, except of course total hours
lived prior to
the fatal event.

Andy

Years ago, I remember reading of accident and fatality figures for
occupational hazards in Great Britain. At the time, professional jump
jockeys were top of the list, with flat race jockeys not far behind.
Both were ahead of deep-sea fishermen. The advent of North Sea oil
rigs put some of their workers at the top (divers, as I recall).

I don't recall any piloting professions anywhere near the top of the
list.

My conclusion - horses are dangerous and aircraft much less so.

Mike