russia vs. japan in 1941 [WAS: 50% of NAZI oil..]

"John Mullen" wrote in message ...
"Stuart Wilkes" wrote in message
om...
"John Mullen" wrote in message
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snip

Think Germany and Japan, working together in a coordinated way, could
have beaten the Soviets without bringing the US or UK into the war?

Yes and no. Yes, Germany can attack the Soviets without the West
getting in the way. Skip the occupation of Prague, and go straight
for Poland. Poland is not well thought-of in the West, since they
joined in on the carveup of Czechoslovakia. Then occupy the Baltic
States. Now start the Anti-Bolshevik Crusade.

But they won't win.

Germany has Barbarossa but without having Fall Gelb first.

Germany looted a huge amount of gold, fuel, weapons, ammo, food,
trucks, and industrial production from occupied France. It came to
~15 gigabucks (1940 dollars) IIRC.

OTOH they also guaranteed a fight with the UK, then still (just!) the
world's leading military power.

A power that in 1939-1940 really didn't do much to hurt Germany.

Once France was conquered, Germany proceeded to garrison it with green
recruits training on captured Czechoslovak, Polish, and French
equipment, or 35-40 year old Privates in fortress regiments with old
weapons and no transport, or, in time, with shattered wrecks of
divisions recovering from their experiences in the East. All fed and
housed at French expense (which was the real point).

Conquering and looting France was a huge money-maker for the Germans,
and without those resources a German war effort in the East quickly
runs out of (financial, then actual) gas.

Without these resources, the
German effort in the East is likely to fall a great deal short.

Japan consolidates in China

That will never happen.

Even without trying to take on the US?

There's really nothing Japan can do to force China to make peace, the
US or no.

then attacks Siberia.

And gets trounced as bad as they did in 1937 - 1939.

And there's no oil they can get to in Siberia, even if they do win,
which they won't.

Even without trying to take on the US?

There's even less the Japanese can do to the USSR that will force them
to make peace. The IJA is configured for a (fruitless) infantry war
in China. It has neither the armor, artillery, or logistics for a
mechanized war against the Soviets.

It would be like bringing a Samurai sword to Kursk...

Stuart Wilkes