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#11
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Darryl Ramm wrote:
On Feb 1, 2:06*pm, (Michel Talon) wrote: Bob Kuykendall wrote: No, not true. As I've written elsewhere the manufacturing cost seems to scale exponentially with span. I don't pretend to be as knowledgeable as you about gliders, but i know that exp(15/14) is not very different from 15/14. One has to chase economies elsewhere. One must chase economies everywhere. Mostly in the hourly cost of manpower, e.g. by building in China, not paying horrendous fees to some university departments to do the computations when it is certainly possible to get them for free, and so on. Probably everything else is negligible. -- Michel TALON Not so fast, if you want to argue with pseudo-math lets get it right. 15/14 is ~1.071, e^1.071 is 2.91 which *is* very different. But what you should be asking is what is e^15/e^14 which is a ratio of 2.72, since Bob said the cost scales exponentially with span, not I expressed myself very poorly, my idea was that the increase in cost is exp(15/14) *compared to* the case where there is no increase, exp(14/14) so the net increase is exp(1/14) which is very close to 1/14 (the second order term being 1/2 (1/14)^2, negligible). Hence, even if the increase in cost is exponential, you will pay (15/14) x (cost of a 14 m glider) for a 15 m glider. The factor 2.7.. = exp(1) above is bogus. exponentially with the span ratio. Not that 2.7 is far from 2.9, but at different span ratios the difference in calculations becomes, ah exponential. Not that this means anything, since Bob was just likely making a point with a hyperbole. I agree completely with that. But i remark that the cost of gliders has indeed increased exponentially the last twenty years, for reasons which have nothing to do with concrete factors, but everything to do with hourly cost of workers, and total lack of will of controlling the costs. The glider factories seem to think that glider buyers are like Ferrari buyers, who will accept to pay any price for their toys. The problem with that is the category of people interested in flying has no intersection with the category of people interested in showing their external signs of richness to bimbos. I'm curious who pays "horrendous fees" to universities. My impression is many European manufactures get pretty sweet deals via relationships with different University research groups and Akafliegs. A closely previous post mentioned that Schleicher was paying heavy fees to Delft University to get his computations done. Compare this to the Pegase which was computed at ONERA for free. I have the impression that the Pegase was the last glider whose aim was allowing a lot of people to fly. And incidentally, it shows that one can build a 15m glider of reasonable simplicity, with performances not that different from the more complex ASW 20, easier to fly, and much cheaper. The LS4 also fits the bill, but already in its time it was 3/2 more expensive. Darryl -- Michel TALON |
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