The new Electric Cessna 172

Vaughn wrote:
On 12/31/2012 10:10 AM, Orval Fairbairn wrote:
In short, electric vehicles are a pie-in-the-sky wet dream of
environmental extremists or electric vehicle scam artists.

No offense intended Orval, but...

In short, you seem to be having difficulty in adjusting your opinions to
match the reality around you. ;-)


Electric vehicles are here, and on the roads. There's nothing you or I
can do to change that reality. They don't fit my needs, and likely not
yours, but the needs of many commuters match the capabilities of a
100-mile range vehicle...or even a sub-100 mile range vehicle. It's
still an emerging market and an emerging technology, but the vehicles
seem to be selling as quick as they come off the assembly lines.

Vaughn

The sales numbers for hybrids are decent, but pure electric cars are not
selling.

There is a BIG difference between a hybrid and a pure electric car.

As for "emerging technology", the lithium battery was invented in 1912.

On 12/31/2012 1:54 PM, wrote:
As for "emerging technology", the lithium battery was invented in 1912.

How is their invention date relevant to this discussion?

Airplanes were invented in about that same time-frame, are you saying
that no significant changes have occurred in aviation since then?

Vaughn

Vaughn wrote:
On 12/31/2012 1:54 PM, wrote:
As for "emerging technology", the lithium battery was invented in 1912.

How is their invention date relevant to this discussion?

Airplanes were invented in about that same time-frame, are you saying
that no significant changes have occurred in aviation since then?

Vaughn

Umm, no, what I am saying to people that use phrases like "emerging
technology" in the expectation that huge improvements are just around
the corner is that the technology has been around a LONG time and is
not "emerging"; the huge improvements happened long ago and all that
can be expected now is minor improvements.

An "emerging technology" where there could be huge improvements would be
something like someone inventing Star Trek technology, e.g. dilithum
power or impulse engines.

On 12/31/2012 6:50 PM, wrote:
in the expectation that huge improvements are just around
the corner is that the technology has been around a LONG time and is
not "emerging"; the huge improvements happened long ago and all that
can be expected now is minor improvements.


In a word, bull****.

There have been drastic improvements in lithium - ion battery technology
in recent years. That's why they have largely supplanted NIMH batteries
for new EV designs.

Will there be continuing significant improvement in coming years? I
imagine that my crystal ball is no better than yours, but my choice
would be to not put money against it.

Vaughn wrote:
On 12/31/2012 6:50 PM, wrote:
in the expectation that huge improvements are just around
the corner is that the technology has been around a LONG time and is
not "emerging"; the huge improvements happened long ago and all that
can be expected now is minor improvements.


In a word, bull****.

There have been drastic improvements in lithium - ion battery technology
in recent years. That's why they have largely supplanted NIMH batteries
for new EV designs.

Nope, the "drastic improvements" in lithium-ion batteries were about 30
years ago when it was figured out how to make them commercially practical.

Since then there have been increamental improvements, such as cathodes
containing polyanions in about 1990, cathodes of phospho-olivines about
2002, better doping materials about the same time, and adding iron
phosphate nano particales to increase energy density around 2004.

All the improvements in lithium-ion batteries have for the most part
since then been in better control of the manufacturing process.

Will there be continuing significant improvement in coming years? I
imagine that my crystal ball is no better than yours, but my choice
would be to not put money against it.

It has already been about a decade since the last significant improvement.

There are some proposed manufacturing processes that could achieve 95%
of the theoretical maximum energy density, however currently they don't
work outside of a lab, i.e. in a factory.

There are numerous other battery chemistries that theoretically surpass
lithium-ion by a large margin, but again only in a lab.

If there are any drastic improvements in batteries, that is most likely
where it will be when some manufacturing engineer figures how to actually
make them in quantity.

On Monday, December 31, 2012 6:50:35 PM UTC-5, wrote:
Vaughn wrote:

On 12/31/2012 1:54 PM, wrote:

As for "emerging technology", the lithium battery was invented in 1912..



How is their invention date relevant to this discussion?



Airplanes were invented in about that same time-frame, are you saying

that no significant changes have occurred in aviation since then?



Vaughn



Umm, no, what I am saying to people that use phrases like "emerging

technology" in the expectation that huge improvements are just around

the corner is that the technology has been around a LONG time and is

not "emerging"; the huge improvements happened long ago and all that

can be expected now is minor improvements.



An "emerging technology" where there could be huge improvements would be

something like someone inventing Star Trek technology, e.g. dilithum

power or impulse engines.

Not trying to argue with you Jim.
But this is my field of research.
Also, when I talk "electric", no one
ever said exclusively batteries. The
advances in PEM fuel cell technology
is through the roof. These "range-
extenders" using ammonia borane,
and sodium silicide take electric
flight orders of magnitude beyone
the internal combustion engine, both
in torque, comfort, and sustainability.


http://www.chargedevs.com/content/fe...ches-1500-whkg

http://www.energy-daily.com/reports/...tes_999.h tml

http://www.northwestern.edu/newscent...ergy-kung.html

http://www.worldofchemicals.com/medi...king/1721.html

http://www.intelligentutility.com/ar...-possible-soon

http://www.marketplace.org/topics/su...r-game-changer

---
(sorry, was unable to transfer
the link for this)

Fuel Cells
Powerful Implications

Lt Col David P. Blanks, USAF
Editorial Abstract: Getting somewhere, sharing information, and producing things all require energy. However, our primary source of energy—oil—is nonrenewable and exhaustible. If we wish to advance, we must seek an alternative, such as hydrogen, the most abundant element in the universe. Fuel cells have the potential not only to transform the future energy needs of the United States and the US Air Force, but also to change how and why we fight.

On 2012-12-31, wrote:

As for "emerging technology", the lithium battery was invented in 1912.

The lithium battery of 1912 shares nothing in common with the lithium-ion
battery of today apart from the use of lithium. That's like saying
the transistor was invented in 1947, so therefore semiconductors are
not going to change or improve.

The Li-Ion battery wasn't actually invented until 1979 and bears no
resemblence to the lithium-ion battery or lithium-polymer-ion battery
(indeed, the particular chemistry for Li-Ion wasn't discovered until
the 1970s). The term "lithium battery" refers to many different battery
chemistries which generally are not alike, except they use Li. Anode
and cathode technology is a hotbed of development, and when it comes
to energy density, the anode and cathode structure is enormously
important.

Li-Ion and Li-Poly has significantly improved just over the last few
years, since I started fiddling with RC helicopters 5 years ago, the
batteries have improved noticably, they've got a bit smaller, the "C"
ratings (the maximum discharge rate) has gone up significantly, and
also the maximum charge rate has significantly increased. And the cost
has gone down, too.

Dylan Smith wrote:
On 2012-12-31, wrote:

As for "emerging technology", the lithium battery was invented in 1912.

The lithium battery of 1912 shares nothing in common with the lithium-ion
battery of today apart from the use of lithium. That's like saying
the transistor was invented in 1947, so therefore semiconductors are
not going to change or improve.

The Li-Ion battery wasn't actually invented until 1979 and bears no
resemblence to the lithium-ion battery or lithium-polymer-ion battery
(indeed, the particular chemistry for Li-Ion wasn't discovered until
the 1970s). The term "lithium battery" refers to many different battery
chemistries which generally are not alike, except they use Li. Anode
and cathode technology is a hotbed of development, and when it comes
to energy density, the anode and cathode structure is enormously
important.

Li-Ion and Li-Poly has significantly improved just over the last few
years, since I started fiddling with RC helicopters 5 years ago, the
batteries have improved noticably, they've got a bit smaller, the "C"
ratings (the maximum discharge rate) has gone up significantly, and
also the maximum charge rate has significantly increased. And the cost
has gone down, too.

If by "the last few years" you mean around 2004 when the last incremental,
not order of magnitude, improvement to lithium-ion batteries was made,
then I agree.

A couple of orders of magnitude of improvement are needed to make things
like general purpose, e.g. C-172 equivelant, electric airplanes practical.

As for the batteries for RC helicopters, this has more to do with the
market becoming significant than much of anything else.

On 2013-01-02, wrote:
A couple of orders of magnitude of improvement are needed to make things
like general purpose, e.g. C-172 equivelant, electric airplanes practical.

Oh, I completely agree with you on that point.

But I think that battery technology will in the not too distant future be
eminently practical for most of the world's use case for a car.

Dylan Smith wrote:
On 2013-01-02, wrote:
A couple of orders of magnitude of improvement are needed to make things
like general purpose, e.g. C-172 equivelant, electric airplanes practical.

Oh, I completely agree with you on that point.

But I think that battery technology will in the not too distant future be
eminently practical for most of the world's use case for a car.

If by "not too distant future" you mean 50 years, than I think a big
maybe.

Absent some astounding breakthrough in portable electric generation, i.e.
all devices such as fuel cells and not just batteries, I doubt the all
electric vehicle will ever become a significant fraction of vehicles on
the road.

Hybrid vehicles stand a much better chance, the biggest current obstacle
being the huge premium in cost.