Glider accident while filming commercial in 2011. NTSB Report updated

On Friday, June 21, 2013 9:49:00 AM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
I just started reviewing your training guide, Bill, and I must say,

"Excellent!"

Thanks for the kind word. My only objective is to promote safe winch launch.

I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero tow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches while we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural differences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at least as good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.

It's natural for familiar things like aero tow to seem safe and unfamiliar things like winch launch to look unsafe but the numbers tell a different story.

In article Bill D writes:

I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero t=
ow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches wh=
ile we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural differ=
ences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at least a=
s good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.

But, what is the severity of these accidents? An article (referenced below)
lists 18 fatal+36 serious injury out of 380 winch launch accidents (14.2 percent).
Aerotow had 1 fatal+2 serious injury out of 103 launch accidents (2.9 percent).

See http://www.soaringsafety.org/ssf-06/articles.html - the articles from
November 2006 report a higher rate of winch accidents than aerotow, and a 7.2
times ratio of winch fatalities vs aerotow once adjusted for number of tows of
each type.

The Feb 2008 column revisits it with few additional numbers.

It's natural for familiar things like aero tow to seem safe and unfamiliar =
things like winch launch to look unsafe but the numbers tell a different st=
ory.

The numbers I found in the November 2006 article appear to favor
aerotow for safety, both in accidents per launch, and in severity of
the accident once it has happened.

Alan

On Saturday, June 22, 2013 1:41:41 AM UTC-6, Alan wrote:
In article Bill D writes:



I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero t=

ow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches wh=

ile we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural differ=

ences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at least a=

s good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.



But, what is the severity of these accidents?

The severity is exactly the same for both aero tow and winch. The German LBU accident statistics are available on-line just as the NTSB data is. I suggest you verify them yourself.

I have no idea where the SSF got their numbers but it may have been the UK since no translations are required. 2011 data shows the UK suffers one accident every 16,000 launches while Germany suffers one every 180,000. German numbers are roughly comparable to the rest of continental Europe. The SSF needs to take another, wider look.

On 22/06/2013 15:01, Bill D wrote:
On Saturday, June 22, 2013 1:41:41 AM UTC-6, Alan wrote:
In article Bill D

writes:



I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero t=

ow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches wh=

ile we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural differ=

ences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at least a=

s good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.



But, what is the severity of these accidents?

The severity is exactly the same for both aero tow and winch. The German LBU accident statistics are

available on-line just as the NTSB data is. I suggest you verify them
yourself.

I have no idea where the SSF got their numbers but it may have been the UK since no translations

are required. 2011 data shows the UK suffers one accident every 16,000
launches while

Germany suffers one every 180,000. German numbers are roughly
comparable to the rest of continental

Europe. The SSF needs to take another, wider look.

Bill makes the classic mistake of the amateur statistician - failing to
understand the different definitions & methods behind the statistics he
quotes.

None of the statistics Bill quotes can be relied upon to be an accurate
comparison.

Ed.

On Saturday, June 22, 2013 6:01:54 PM UTC-6, B4soaring wrote:
On 22/06/2013 15:01, Bill D wrote:

On Saturday, June 22, 2013 1:41:41 AM UTC-6, Alan wrote:

In article Bill D



writes:







I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero t=



ow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches wh=



ile we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural differ=



ences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at least a=



s good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.







But, what is the severity of these accidents?



The severity is exactly the same for both aero tow and winch. The German LBU accident statistics are



available on-line just as the NTSB data is. I suggest you verify them

yourself.



I have no idea where the SSF got their numbers but it may have been the UK since no translations



are required. 2011 data shows the UK suffers one accident every 16,000

launches while



Germany suffers one every 180,000. German numbers are roughly

comparable to the rest of continental



Europe. The SSF needs to take another, wider look.



Bill makes the classic mistake of the amateur statistician - failing to

understand the different definitions & methods behind the statistics he

quotes.



None of the statistics Bill quotes can be relied upon to be an accurate

comparison.



Ed.

Bull ****! I've spend years investigating these reports and vetting the analysis with experts. These are not statistics or summaries, they are actual numbers obtained from the respective national aviation safety boards who use the same investigative techniques. They are 100% reliable for comparisons.

There is no way to overcome an order of magnitude difference no matter how you spin the numbers. If you don't believe it, try to make the numbers come out the other way.

. . .

Bill makes the classic mistake of the amateur statistician - failing to

understand the different definitions & methods behind the statistics he

quotes.



None of the statistics Bill quotes can be relied upon to be an accurate

comparison.



Ed.

Bull ****! I've spend years investigating these reports and vetting the analysis with experts. These are not statistics or summaries,

they are actual numbers obtained from the respective national aviation
safety boards who use the same investigative techniques. They

are 100% reliable for comparisons.

There is no way to overcome an order of magnitude difference no matter how you spin the numbers. If you don't believe it, try to make

the numbers come out the other way.



"they are actual numbers obtained from the respective national aviation
safety boards who use the same investigative techniques"

No, they are not. The equivalent of the BFU is the AAIB - if you wish to
make comparisons you should compare the BFU statistics with the AAIB
figures.

Ed.

ps an earlier post of yours refers to the "German LBU"; I'm aware of the
LBA, I know of the BFU but your reference to the "German LBU" is puzzling.

No, they are not. The equivalent of the BFU is the AAIB - if you wish to make comparisons you should compare the BFU statistics with the AAIB figures.
_____________________

What!!? The AAIB doesn't publish glider accident statistics - they leave that to the BGA. I used the BGA numbers for 2011.

ps an earlier post of yours refers to the "German LBU"; I'm aware of the LBA, I know of the BFU but your reference to the "German LBU" is puzzling.

The German LBA is their FAA equivalent. The BFU is the NTSB/AAIB equivalent. The "LBU" was a typo.

The numbers I used are available for anybody to read and analyze. The differences are so huge, there's no way to come up with a different result. If you disagree, go read them and do your own analysis.

I would venture a guess that we (in the USA) are trained for the most part
in aero tow and are very accustomed to it. Winch launching is a novelty
here whereas in Europe it's much more prevalent and the pilots there are
more familiar with the winch.


"Alan" wrote in message
...
In article Bill D
writes:

I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero
t=
ow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches
wh=
ile we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural
differ=
ences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at least
a=
s good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.

But, what is the severity of these accidents? An article (referenced
below)
lists 18 fatal+36 serious injury out of 380 winch launch accidents (14.2
percent).
Aerotow had 1 fatal+2 serious injury out of 103 launch accidents (2.9
percent).

See http://www.soaringsafety.org/ssf-06/articles.html - the articles
from
November 2006 report a higher rate of winch accidents than aerotow, and a
7.2
times ratio of winch fatalities vs aerotow once adjusted for number of
tows of
each type.

The Feb 2008 column revisits it with few additional numbers.

It's natural for familiar things like aero tow to seem safe and unfamiliar
=
things like winch launch to look unsafe but the numbers tell a different
st=
ory.

The numbers I found in the November 2006 article appear to favor
aerotow for safety, both in accidents per launch, and in severity of
the accident once it has happened.

Alan

A few weeks ago a German visitor told me that it's now unlawful in Germany
to air tow with a CG release. Four of my five gliders have had CG hooks
only and most of my launches are by air tow. Frankly I don't see the
problem (I know the physics) - simply fly the glider and who needs the
self-righting forces of a nose hook?


"Bill D" wrote in message
...
On Friday, June 21, 2013 9:49:00 AM UTC-6, Dan Marotta wrote:
I just started reviewing your training guide, Bill, and I must say,

"Excellent!"

Thanks for the kind word. My only objective is to promote safe winch
launch.

I'm positive that if it's done right, winch launch is far safer than aero
tow. Germans suffer one accident on average every 180,000 winch launches
while we suffer one every 24,000 aero tows. I know there are cultural
differences but, presumably, we're pretty good at aero tow and they're at
least as good at winch launch so the comparison is probably valid.

It's natural for familiar things like aero tow to seem safe and unfamiliar
things like winch launch to look unsafe but the numbers tell a different
story.

Am 22.06.2013 18:19, Dan Marotta wrote:
A few weeks ago a German visitor told me that it's now unlawful in
Germany to air tow with a CG release. Four of my five gliders have had
CG hooks only and most of my launches are by air tow. Frankly I don't
see the problem (I know the physics) - simply fly the glider and who
needs the self-righting forces of a nose hook?



This is not true. The only legal requirement for aero tows with CG hook
is that you have to have a minimum of 5 aero tows within the last 6
month. If you don't meet this criteria, you have to make these 5 aero
tows with nose hook before you are allowed to be towed on your CG hook.

Most pilots (including me, having an ASW 24 with CG hook only) do not
believe that this rule added anything towards safety in aero tow. IMHO
it's just a bureaucratic requirement, and I know of quite a few pilots
just ignoring it.
--
Peter Scholz
ASW24 JE