Xcskies

On Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 5:51:11 AM UTC-7, John Godfrey (QT) wrote:
On Tuesday, September 6, 2016 at 1:37:10 AM UTC-4, Ramy wrote:
Eric, thanks for the detailed analysis. Very helpful.

Ramy

The key things to keep aware of when using any of these sites (Unisys, Dr.. Jack, XCSkies, TopMeteo) a

1. What model data are you looking at (GFS, NAM, RAP, etc.) along with the knowledge of the strengths and weaknesses of each related to your area.

2. What model run are you seeing. Each site occasionally lags on the model run that is being displayed. You do not always see the most recent.

Topmeteo is different from Blipmaps and XCSkies in that they have their own proprietary model; they use data from NWS only to set initial conditions. Consequently the forecast from Topmeteo can be quite different from Blipmap.. Also, Topmeteo gives hourly forecasts; RAP is only available on 3 hour intervals.

I have compared the RAP model soundings to the actual balloon (RAOB) soundings and have found a significant loss in vertical resolution. Sometimes it doesn't matter, but other times the real data shows a distinct temperature inversion that is lost in the models. This results in stronger thermals to significantly higher cloud bases, and clouds vs blue, than what the models predicted. This happened day after day this summer in Ely. If you want the REAL picture you MUST get "under the hood" and understand how the soundings work and do your own real vs model comparisons.

All in all, however, Topmeteo is clearly superior to Blipmaps and XCSkies.

Tom