Hobbs 2019 18m/Opens Nats - HRRR model forecasts of thunderstorms andcirrus blowoff - CASE STUDY

The cirrus blowoff at Hobbs on DAY 7 and DAY 8 encouraged me to investigate how the HRRR model forecasts the cloud cover. Here's a pdf discussing this along with videos of how the model forecasted the thunderstorms and Total Cloud Cover:

https://www.dropbox.com/s/djcw4pfu9n...ms.pdf?r aw=1

For easy reference here's the GOES-16 sat imagery videos

DAY 7
https://www.dropbox.com/s/2rrdqjvfry...adar.mp4?raw=1

DAY 8
https://www.dropbox.com/s/0vxeixzdor...S-16.mp4?raw=1

CONCLUSIONS

Yes, it did forecast the cirrus blowoff.. but was too slow in moving toward Hobbs. So, I wouldn't rely on it for tasking with any detailed planning. It just indicates a higher risk day for completing a task.

Walt Rogers WX