Making the safe decision (AKA "I hate AIRMET ZULU")

Paul Tomblin wrote:
In a previous article, Robert Chambers said:

Yeah I was thinking if you could get to Utica or somewhere a bit closer
than BAF. The drive would be shorter if you have to leave the plane
there and the drive back to retrieve the bird would be shorter as well.


As I was driving out of the parking lot at Barnes, there was a fair chunk
of blue sky to the west. I was really tempted to fly west and see how far
I could get VFR with maybe a popup IFR clearance for an approach somewhere
and rent a car there, and that's what I would have done if I were alone.
But my wife doesn't like the uncertainty of not knowing whether we're
going to find a rental car or a motel room.

On the drive home, we drove through some high hills with low clouds down
below the peaks and cold rain, and figured that being in the car was
probably the best decision. I'm just not sure when the conditions are
going to be conducive to bringing the plane home, and the club is NOT
going to be happy about that. I might go down on Wednesday and give it a
try to see how far I get.

I flew from ELM to LEB on Friday for the weekend. Woke up at the hotel
in Montpelier, VT Sunday morning to 3" of snow! Luckily, as we drove
back south to the airport we ran out of snow and into light mist. I was
iffy on attempting the flight home given the low clouds and freezing
level, but a twin had departed shortly ahead of me for PA and reported
on top at 10,000 with no icing problems. So, I decided to take a look
and see how far I could get. Got a little rime at 6,000, but was soon
between layers and had a pretty uneventful fight home. I did have to
climb to 8,000 to stay between layers near Albany and eventually up to
10,000 to get on top prior to Binghamton, but the descent into ELM was
through a thin layer with no problems.

One just never knows in this part of the country this time of the year.
You certainly can't fault any decision to cancel a flight this time of
year in such conditions. I've flown a fair bit in this area and decided
the risk was acceptable, but I did have the ILS 18 back into Lebanon on
my approach clip as I was climbing out. :-)


Matt

Paul Tomblin wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 01:37:41 +0000 (UTC), (Paul
Tomblin) wrote:

I'm just not sure when the conditions are
going to be conducive to bringing the plane home, and the club is NOT
going to be happy about that.

Yes, they would have been much happier had you become an icing accident.


Well, the guy who had it booked for Monday and Tuesday wrote to me that
he'd been thinking of cancelling anyway because of the weather, so I feel
better about that.

This morning I look at the airmets, and there are two of them for icing,
with a narrow little corridor between them straight between BAF and ROC.
Not sure if I trust that narrow corridor to stay open, though. How good
are the boundaries of airmets? Are you ever going to encounter the
conditions outside the boundaries, or are they pretty conservative about
them?


I find the FAA weather guys to be pretty conservative about almost
everything, but even the best weather folks are wrong as often as they
are right. The FAA is especially conservative when calling for icing
and this is a real pain with the ever stricter FAA and NTSB
interpretations of "known icing." Now that forecast = known, it makes
flying in the northeast illegal for about 5 months of the year.

I tend to fly if there isn't rain at ground level and the freezing level
is at or above the MEA or I can fly VFR. However, I've flown a lot in
the winter and am reasonably comfortable taking on reasoned risk.
Everyone's risk assessment and tolerance is different and only you know
what you are comfortable with. If you are significantly concerned about
making the flight, then I'd say that alone probably says it isn't worth
it. Flying is supposed to be fun (unless you are getting paid for it)
so why make a flight that will give you white knuckles on the yoke?


MAtt

Absolutely you made the right decision. And you are around to make the
second guess.

You bring up a valid point as well, with your wife liking to know where
she is going to be staying and that you have the situation well in hand.
That is taking her feelings well into the equation and will keep her a
happy passenger for years to come.



Paul Tomblin wrote:
In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:

An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.


The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC), (Paul
Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

For sure you made the correct decision. It's a losing game to try to
second guess yourself, especially with ice.

If you've got clear cut outs, then it may be worth a try. That usually
means MEA's above the freezing level, which was NOT the case in your
situation. It might also mean an a/c that you know can get above the
clouds; thin layers; etc.

But in the lee of the Great Lakes one year I picked up enough ice to drop
my IAS by about 30 kts. Those lakes are great ice-makers -- better than my
refrigerator! You'll do well to treat them with respect.


Ron (EPM) (N5843Q, Mooney M20E) (CP, ASEL, ASES, IA)

: This weekend in WI was a perfect case of airmets galore, but good planning
: wouldn't have prevented flying due to ice. Overcast at 2700, clear above
: 3000.(4000 MSL) light to moderate rime ICIP airmet blanketing the entire
: state. VFR both south and north of us, surface temps between 40 and 45F.
: Freezing level 4000 MSL north sloping to 6000 MSL south. ADDS was
: predicting a 80-90% chance of icing at 6000, nothing at 3000, and nothing at
: 9000. The "go" decision could be made because the clouds at 2700-3000 AGL
: were below the freezing level and it was clear above, so the airmet didn't
: have any weather that it applied to. Be careful when using ADDS that you
: remember ceilings are AGL, icing predictions are MSL. So, we could have
: taken off, climbed through the ceiling into clear air.

: What if we come upon a layer at 6000 where ADDS said 80-90% chance of ice?

: What are our outs?
: 1) Climb above it, ADDS predicted 0% at 9000, climb is always my first
: choice. you can climb before you accumulate ice, you can always go down.

: 2) descend below it and continue, MEA is 3000 MSL

: 3) descend through it and land

: 4) turn around and fly back into clear weather

: 5) turn 90 degrees to the system and fly around it, this requires knowledge
: of the area of coverage and conditions surrounding it, plus additional fuel.

6) Stay VFR at 2500 AGL? If it's overcast at 2700, staying out of the iced-up soup
altogether seems like a good plan as well. I'd rather be at 1500 AGL in VMC than
slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
"out"

-Cory


--

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

wrote:

: This weekend in WI was a perfect case of airmets galore, but good planning
: wouldn't have prevented flying due to ice. Overcast at 2700, clear above
: 3000.(4000 MSL) light to moderate rime ICIP airmet blanketing the entire
: state. VFR both south and north of us, surface temps between 40 and 45F.
: Freezing level 4000 MSL north sloping to 6000 MSL south. ADDS was
: predicting a 80-90% chance of icing at 6000, nothing at 3000, and nothing at
: 9000. The "go" decision could be made because the clouds at 2700-3000 AGL
: were below the freezing level and it was clear above, so the airmet didn't
: have any weather that it applied to. Be careful when using ADDS that you
: remember ceilings are AGL, icing predictions are MSL. So, we could have
: taken off, climbed through the ceiling into clear air.

: What if we come upon a layer at 6000 where ADDS said 80-90% chance of ice?

: What are our outs?
: 1) Climb above it, ADDS predicted 0% at 9000, climb is always my first
: choice. you can climb before you accumulate ice, you can always go down.

: 2) descend below it and continue, MEA is 3000 MSL

: 3) descend through it and land

: 4) turn around and fly back into clear weather

: 5) turn 90 degrees to the system and fly around it, this requires knowledge
: of the area of coverage and conditions surrounding it, plus additional fuel.

6) Stay VFR at 2500 AGL? If it's overcast at 2700, staying out of the iced-up soup
altogether seems like a good plan as well. I'd rather be at 1500 AGL in VMC than
slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
"out"

Except 200' below the clouds doesn't meet the VFR minimums in most
classes of airspace.

Matt

Matt Whiting wrote:
: slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
: "out"

: Except 200' below the clouds doesn't meet the VFR minimums in most
: classes of airspace.

So fly at 2200'. The east/west rules aren't required if below 5000 AGL IIRC.
If you want to call it MVFR, great. I'm just saying I'll take MVFR to icy soup in my
spamcan. Once you're IMC you're "committed" and things like altitude and heading
deviations take (possibly lots of) time, unless you declare an emergency.

-Cory

************************************************** ***********************
* Cory Papenfuss *
* Electrical Engineering candidate Ph.D. graduate student *
* Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University *
************************************************** ***********************

So fly at 2200'. The east/west rules aren't required if below 5000 AGL IIRC.

3000 AGL in the US.

Jose
--
Money: what you need when you run out of brains.
for Email, make the obvious change in the address.

On Mon, 24 Oct 2005 22:19:12 +0000 (UTC),
(Paul Tomblin) wrote:

In a previous article, Ron Rosenfeld said:
An FIP map that I downloaded last night valid at 0900Z showed significant
icing probability along your route at 6,000', although it did look doable
at 3,000'.

The MEA between CTR and ALB is 6,000 though. I'm looking at the
possibility of going VFR to the Hudson Valley and then the Mohawk Valley.
But there are still those hills to the south of Rochester.

Thanks for you advice and everybody else's on this thread. I feel like
I've made the right decision, but it's easy to second guess yourself.

A few years back we were headed for Boulder Colorado and Jefco (BJC).
We had diverted tot he south to avoid some heavy stuff to the north.
This added a good 250 miles to the trip.

We got a late start as my wife had to work in the morning and we
weren't out of 3BS until near 2:30 or 3:00 PM.

Other than passing through a line of thunderstorms just getting
started and at least 3 or 4 hours before they were to be in the area
the trip went fine. Well other than the 40 knot head wind. We
decided to overnight in the Topeka area as I really didn't want to be
getting into the mountain area after dark.

The next morning found storms forecast for the entire route so we went
airport hopping. Topeka to Salina where we topped off the tanks and
had lunch. Things were improving by 1:00 or so and we were off to
Hays KS where we spent another hour or so before heading to Goodland.

We/I had hopped to go straight to Boulder, but some towering Q had
slid off the mountains. We were close to 12,000 over Goodland, but no
way were we going to get over or around the stuff to the west. It was
just getting bigger and meaner. So we sat on the ground for a while
at Goodland.

A 182 headed out IFR while I was filing a VFR flight plan. (Below the
clouds it was crystal clear) so we headed out with an eye on the map
and every airport we passed with the closest to the south always in
mind. (the weather got better fast going south). We stayed under the
clouds, but by the time we passed Lyman CO, I was beginning to think
about heading south to find higher ceilings. Just as I was about to
turn the ceiling went up abruptly and visibility was a good 30 to 50
miles. Of course all we could see were those BIG BLACK TOWERING
Cumulus.

After we passed the south edge of the old Stapelton Airport visibility
started getting a bit stinky, but was still legal. Denver APP was
going to turn us loose, but I asked if we could hang around with them
for a while longer as it was getting kinda stinky around there. They
were kind enough to have us stay on frequency until we were
recognizing landmarks in the BJC area (Rocky Flats)

It was airport to airport and always watching for a way out,
just-in-case.

It's far better to err on the safe side than find yourself in deep
doggie do.

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

wrote:

Matt Whiting wrote:
: slogging through the soup waiting for ice to start accumulating and have to choose an
: "out"

: Except 200' below the clouds doesn't meet the VFR minimums in most
: classes of airspace.

So fly at 2200'. The east/west rules aren't required if below 5000 AGL IIRC.
If you want to call it MVFR, great. I'm just saying I'll take MVFR to icy soup in my
spamcan. Once you're IMC you're "committed" and things like altitude and heading
deviations take (possibly lots of) time, unless you declare an emergency.

Yes, I'd call that MVFR. I believe the cutoff for east/west altitude
rules is 3000 AGL, but that wasn't my point. The point is that the
original suggestion was illegal in most airspace.

I'd rather fly IFR at a safe altitude and get around the ice, than scud
run in mountainous terrain just below the cloud bases and wonder when
the mountains and the bases will become one.

I flew in an area of icing potential just last weekend and had little
problem finding an ice-free altitude. I had to change altitude several
times to stay between layers, but in weather like that, there is very
little traffic below 10,000 feet, even in the northeast. I found new
altitudes to take less than 30 seconds toget, and it took that long only
because the controller volunteered to talk to a few other aircraft to
find the most promising altitude for me. I've found the controllers to
be extremely helpful on days like that. Just ask for their help BEFORE
you get in trouble, don't do something stupid and then drop the problem
in their lap.

Matt