Soaring already DOA for the season???

According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.

If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.

Markm so true. As I dictate this I am on my way to our gliderport dragging up my tractor to mow (county isnt mowing now), then were gonna fly today n this weekend. No two place, no instruction, no contact. I don’t have to interact with a single soul on the way up or back, don’t need gas or lunch. So my chance of infecting anyone is dang near zero. I think many other clubs who are not in viral epicenters can do the same.
Dan

On Friday, March 27, 2020 at 7:41:14 AM UTC-6, wrote:
According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.

If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.

Mark, I think you need to watch Nightly News with Lestor Holt tonight. I'm sure they will cover New York and other hotspots, so you can understand what happens to the health care system if the virus is allowed to spread quickly. Even 5% of people age 20-30 need hospital care to live, and the numbers go up dramatically with age. With patients needing ventilators for 2-3 weeks, it is not hard to understand how the system can get quickly over whelmed. The cause of death in many patients is Cardiomyopathy, or heart damage and failure. 20% of people, who are hospitalized and live, have permanent heart damage, on top those who have lung scaring from the severe pneumonia.

Looking at the present crisis in NYC, the government there rolled out contact-restrictions much too slowly.

It seems silly to take my cues as to what is presently safe and appropriate behavior from a foot-dragging government that has a conflicted agenda.

To draw a parallel with flying, following the FAR perfectly does not make you safe. To manage risk, you need to make your own go/no_go decisions and set your own 'personal minimums'. Rules that are perceived to be too restrictive may be disregarded (at least by glider pilots). Likewise with contact-restrictions.

I bought an N100 mask a year ago. I wore it on an 18 hour commercial flight last Monday-Tuesday (26 hours door to door with layovers). I'm pretty sure that everyone will be asked to wear a mask when there enough to go around..

On Friday, 27 March 2020 15:41:14 UTC+2, wrote:
According to today's Albuquerque Journal newspaper, 8,513 people have been tested, with 136 positive instances of COVID-19 infection in New Mexico. THIRTEEN (13) have been hospitalized and one (1) has died. In a state with a population of 2 million.

If this qualifies as an "overburdened" health care system, I shudder to think what will happen when a REAL pandemic with a serious infection and fatality rate occurs. The government will once again order lockdowns and shutdowns, but the public will remember what happened the last time they cried "WOLF!" And then the S will REALLY HTF.

In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000 inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.

I know of three different offices, mine included (20-100 people working each) that have 15% of the workforce currently sick with all the corona symptoms.

The reason between this 0,0002% and 15% discrepancy is simple: they have not tested the whole population.

At 11:03 28 March 2020, krasw wrote:
In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.

Ahem! That's 0.02%
J.

We’re not quite dead yet!
Took care of mowing duties at the gliderport yesterday and then proceeded to make a few tows. We’re only doing solo flights, keeping our distance and doing just fine.

Better figure this thing out now as this is the new normal. Unless you want to just sit in your house for the next six months, order takeout n home delivery. You have a bigger chance of infection there than you do flying your ship.
Dan

In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000

In the US, 300M/100k is one per 3000, but to get there, it has been increasing at a steady 1.3 per day for the last 4 weeks. It seems clear that in some parts of the country, we need to do considerably more.

Dave's second link has a lot of guesses instead of real data, but seems refreshingly logically consistent in terms of a plan.



In short, 1.3 needs to be below 0.5 for a few weeks, then maybe .9 until there is a vaccine. Getting to 0.5 would require significant limits like one trip outside per household every few days. Social distancing with two way masks (N95 protect only the wearer) and a new social norm of situational awareness and sanitation.

In this world, unnecessary extra risk factors like flying are not even on the table until the 0.9 stage.

The only hope would be that there are verifiable, drastically different stats in some parts of the country which puts them in the 0.9 stage already.

I'd like to see a more optimistic logical prognosis so I can go flying, but what is coming from the Whitehouse seems the reverse.

On Saturday, 28 March 2020 15:45:05 UTC+2, James Metcalfe wrote:
At 11:03 28 March 2020, krasw wrote:
In my country, there is currently one confirmed corona case per 5000
inhabitants. That is 0.0002% of the population.

Ahem! That's 0.02%
J.

Yes, I deleted (since google does not allow editing) the post after rereading and noticing that too. Kudos for pointing my mistake faster that I can left-click!

On Sunday, March 22, 2020 at 8:42:56 PM UTC-4, Matt Herron Jr. wrote:
Airsailing in NV has closed down, and now Willliams in CA is closed. will contests be cancelled next? Does SSA have a position on this? Are there things we can do to mitigate exposure so we can fly? Inquiring pilots want to know...

Keep the faith Matt. It would appear that the current numbers being reported do not support the doomsday scenarios. There may be hope for soaring this season.