Are pilots really good or just lucky???

When I read something like this:

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/en/reports/air/...2/A03A0022.asp

....I worry a lot.

We have a pilot with 110 successfully Atlantic crossings and 5000 hours,
taking a plane...IFR... 2000 miles across the North Atlantic into the
Canadian sub-Arctic in the dead of winter...

The plane has no Cabin heat.
The plane has no working turn coordinator.
The plane's ELT battery is out of date.
That doesn't really matter because the ELT switch was turned to "OFF",
anyway.
The plane does not have enough fuel to reach alternate + 45... barely enough
to reach alternate.
That doesn't really matter, because the alternate was actual and forecast
below limits anyway.
That doesn't matter either, because the plane was not equipped with the
necessary equipment to accomplish any of the published approaches at the
alternate, anyway.

In spite of all that, if she could have lasted just 6 more miles, it would
have been another ho-hum crossing.

.... but the AI gyro gave up with 6 NM to go, and with no Turn
coordinator...in IMC..., she became a statistic on the ice of Hamilton
Inlet.

Which brings up the question.... is this kind of decision-making truly an
anomaly.... or is it the norm more often than we would like to think?

Do a whole ton of flights stay out of the Safety Board's reports more by
good luck than good management?

Some people just like a challenge.

Which brings up the question.... is this kind of decision-making truly an
anomaly.... or is it the norm more often than we would like to think?
Do a whole ton of flights stay out of the Safety Board's reports more by
good luck than good management?

How about the part where she brings her daughter along. I don't
know how old the daughter was, or if she was a pilot, but you
would think someone would put your family's safety over completing
a ferry flight. You wonder how many other trips she made just like
this one and made it......


"Icebound" wrote in message
...
When I read something like this:

http://www.tsb.gc.ca/en/reports/air/...2/A03A0022.asp

...I worry a lot.

We have a pilot with 110 successfully Atlantic crossings and 5000 hours,
taking a plane...IFR... 2000 miles across the North Atlantic into the
Canadian sub-Arctic in the dead of winter...

The plane has no Cabin heat.
The plane has no working turn coordinator.
The plane's ELT battery is out of date.
That doesn't really matter because the ELT switch was turned to "OFF",
anyway.
The plane does not have enough fuel to reach alternate + 45... barely
enough to reach alternate.
That doesn't really matter, because the alternate was actual and forecast
below limits anyway.
That doesn't matter either, because the plane was not equipped with the
necessary equipment to accomplish any of the published approaches at the
alternate, anyway.

In spite of all that, if she could have lasted just 6 more miles, it would
have been another ho-hum crossing.

... but the AI gyro gave up with 6 NM to go, and with no Turn
coordinator...in IMC..., she became a statistic on the ice of Hamilton
Inlet.

Which brings up the question.... is this kind of decision-making truly an
anomaly.... or is it the norm more often than we would like to think?

Do a whole ton of flights stay out of the Safety Board's reports more by
good luck than good management?

Peter MacPherson wrote:
How about the part where she brings her daughter along. I don't
know how old the daughter was, or if she was a pilot, but you
would think someone would put your family's safety over completing
a ferry flight.

When I first got my PPL almost a year ago, my first passengers were
beyond nervous with my being so green. The first few passengers raved
and now people are going out of their way to come visit and go for a
ride.

I'm now working on my IFR rating right. In this newsgroup
we had a thread running about taking friends and family into IMC and
their reactions and the added risks compared to VMC flights. For
me, going into IMC gets the adrenaline running for a week if not
more. I love the challenge but someday I just can't imagine
my friends and family feeling comfortable when they can't see anything
but the inside of the flask they are drinking from and the ceiling
as they pray.

Comments like this woman taking their daughter across
the ocean is and into IMC really get me thinking. Flying hard IMC in
a bug smasher whether it is a C152 or a SR22 or a certified Known Ice
C210 with friends and family seems almost as bad as ferry crossing. You
might have some more airports to land at in case of an emergency but if
is hard IMC with 300 AGL ceilings, you really have the odds stacked
against you in both cases.

In this case, she made the ferry crossing 'fine.' She got across the
pond after all but the bad part was she was a few miles short of
perfect. The bad part is her decision making about the
airworthiness of the plane combined with weather and fuel planning were
quite poor.

So with my reasoning which certainly could be far off base, I guess my
question is, do you consider taking friends and family into
hard IMC that risky. I wouldn't take friends and family without another
pilot on a flight down to minimums but I'm wondering if IFR in anything
but turbine powered aircraft is just outright stupid in a way.

Gerald Sylvester
PPL-ASEL 12/17/03

"Gerald Sylvester" wrote:
[snip]
So with my reasoning which certainly could be far off base, I guess my
question is, do you consider taking friends and family into
hard IMC that risky. I wouldn't take friends and family without
another
pilot on a flight down to minimums but I'm wondering if IFR in
anything
but turbine powered aircraft is just outright stupid in a way.

It's too risky, IMO, to take my family into large areas of very low IMC
in my SE airplane. There just aren't enough "outs" available in case of
trouble. Neither will I depart with non-pilot pax aboard if the airport
is at or below minimums.
--
Dan
C172RG at BFM

It's too risky, IMO, to take my family into large areas of very low IMC
in my SE airplane. There just aren't enough "outs" available in case of
trouble. Neither will I depart with non-pilot pax aboard if the airport
is at or below minimums.



thanks everyone for your honest replies. I guess my beliefs are inline
with everyone else. Too bad my wallet has enough time keeping up with
my IFR training much less buying that CJ1 / eclipse / Adams / etc.

Gerald

Wow, I asked a short question a couple of weeks ago and the thread
is still going.

The funny and good thing about it is I started up my IFR training
again. My last flight was at the end of May. My first flight went
very good. Very little rust amazingly but afterwards my head was still
beyond overloaded. Did the 2nd flight 4 days after that. Did 4
approaches to near ATP standards and afterwards I could
form normal sentences and didn't appear braindead.
In fact, on the ILS, I had time to tell my CFII to stop playing
with the AM radio (ADF) while I was literally drumming my fingertips
on the dashboard.

Right now my CFII and I agreed that from now I fly only in IMC. At
worst, we make some trips in low IMC after I get the ticket. Hhe
also thinks I can finish this up my January. I think that is a little
optimistic but February definitely. I also might be going on some
XC IFR trips just to build up the 40 hours. On that behalf, THANKS
EVERYONE SO MUCH FOR ALL THE IFR DISCUSSION.

Gerald

On Tue, 23 Nov 2004 06:31:08 -0600, "Dan Luke"
wrote:


"Gerald Sylvester" wrote:
[snip]
So with my reasoning which certainly could be far off base, I guess my
question is, do you consider taking friends and family into
hard IMC that risky.

Solid IMC? sure and without hesitation.
Solid IMC and turbulence, the occasional embedded TS, or ice. Not a
chance.

I wouldn't take friends and family without
another
pilot on a flight down to minimums but I'm wondering if IFR in

It depends on two things. How much you fly and your comfort factor.
I find flying down to minimums little different than breaking out a
100 or 200 feet above minimums.

anything
but turbine powered aircraft is just outright stupid in a way.

It's too risky, IMO, to take my family into large areas of very low IMC
in my SE airplane. There just aren't enough "outs" available in case of
trouble. Neither will I depart with non-pilot pax aboard if the airport
is at or below minimums.

To me, IFR isn't all that different than VFR any more. If find that to
be true even in solid IMC. Where I draw the line with passengers is
turbulence.

I was lucky I had instructors who put me through a lot of IMC right
down to minimums so by the time I received my rating I felt competent
(and comfortable) to fly down to minimums and did. Actually my first
solo IFR flight was near minimums on both ends. Coming home it was
forecast to be below minimums for 3BS, but above for MBS which is just
11.3 miles and they have and ILS. Had to file FNT as the alternate,
but you can go any where.

Shot the VOR-A into 3BS and it was good, but 10 minutes earlier, or
later and it would have been doing the missed to the ILS at MBS and
having my wife pick me up. A couple miles either side of the approach
was well below minimums. When I called the airport in site, there was
a pause and APP asked what conditions looked like.

As far as passengers I really don't see it as any more risky than VFR,
but I won't take inexperienced passengers into solid IMC. I don't
like cleaning airplanes.

True, I fly over the mid west which is mostly flat land and if it's
minimums or above you can make a visual landing ... somewhere. OTOH
there are a *lot* of densely wooded areas.

I look at it this way. *If* I'm comfortable with the conditions I'll
take friends and family. If I find the "pucker factor" to be
uncomfortable, I not only won't take friends and family, I won't go
either.

My life is every bit as important to me as any one else's. My basic
rule, which is very easy to keep; I won't take some one else where I
wouldn't go. :-))

Roger Halstead (K8RI & ARRL life member)
(N833R, S# CD-2 Worlds oldest Debonair)
www.rogerhalstead.com

On Wed, 24 Nov 2004 16:14:35 -0500, Roger wrote:

I was lucky I had instructors who put me through a lot of IMC right
down to minimums so by the time I received my rating I felt competent
(and comfortable) to fly down to minimums and did.

I really have to agree with Roger here!

I had two instructors in my IFR training. My first instructor took me on
days that were down to ILS minimums at HKS. My second instructor will not
fly in solid IMC for any period of time.

The second instructors opinion was that the purpose of an IFR ticket in a
single engine was to climb through the deck, get on top, and then decend
through the deck and land.

My first instructor on the other hand had me fly 2.4 in solid IMC doing
approaches and gave me the confidence to remain in IMC.

Talk about bringing up the confidence level, as when I did my first IFR
approaches after getting my ticket, it was 900 ceiling at HKS, and I felt
like I had a ton of time after breaking out to make the runway.

I had my first hold in solid IMC just three weeks ago, so again, because my
first instructor gave me the confidence, it really was no big deal. Just
rather boring going circles for 15 minutes.

So, depending on your instructor, probably will dictate your own confidence
level. After all, you practice down to minimums under the hood, it's no
different then in IMC.

As far as passengers, I took my wife up for her first trip. Granted, she
has been great throughout my flying experiences, but she was not
comfortable in solid IMC. It was smooth as silk, and we were in IMC for 40
minutes until I got on top at 8000 feet further down the road. She didn't
like the fact that she felt like a "speck" with no visual references. So,
each passenger will have their own tolerences.

To be honest, I wouldn't hesitate to take a passenger up in IMC, as if you
treat it as "normal", the passenger will not know any difference anyway.
It's when the pilot shows some concern, that the passenger will pick up on
that concern.

As far as comfort, turbulence has the most impact on passengers from my
experiences. Smooth air, and IMC really doesn't bother a passenger who
thinks it's perfectly normal.

Allen

Dan Luke wrote:

Gerald Sylvester wrote:
[snip]
So with my reasoning which certainly could be far off base, I guess my
question is, do you consider taking friends and family into
hard IMC that risky. I wouldn't take friends and family without
another
pilot on a flight down to minimums but I'm wondering if IFR in
anything
but turbine powered aircraft is just outright stupid in a way.

It's too risky, IMO, to take my family into large areas of very low IMC
in my SE airplane. There just aren't enough "outs" available in case of
trouble. Neither will I depart with non-pilot pax aboard if the airport
is at or below minimums.

If always amazes me when pilots value others' lives more than their own.

Hilton