How dangerous is soaring?

On Oct 30, 6:50 pm, Ramy wrote:
" No matter how safe you think you are, the risk is still
significantly higher than most normal activities (such as driving)"

You sure?

How many times have you seen a traffic accident on your way to the
gliderport?

In the same time frame, how many glider accidents have you seen in
that same airport?

Although I can appreciate what Patrick is going through, stopping from
flying ARE NOT going to stop accidents from happening. And I doubt the
deads would have want us to stop anyway...

[apologies if this is a double-post - the first one didn't seem to go
through]

On Oct 31, 4:04 pm, jeplane wrote:
On Oct 30, 6:50 pm, Ramy wrote:
" No matter how safe you think you are, the risk is still
significantly higher than most normal activities (such as driving)"

You sure?

How many times have you seen a traffic accident on your way to the
gliderport?...

That question reflects a very typical, but not very productive
approach to the issue at hand. The plural of "anecdote" is not "data."

Data such as that in this PDF is why I personally feel fairly certain
when I say that flying gliders is considerably riskier than most of
what you'd call "normal activities":

http://www.ntsb.gov/publictn/2007/ARG0701.pdf

See page 15, which shows (for year 2003) bar graphs for both the raw
total and fatal accident numbers per general aviation sector, and the
total and fatal accidents per hours flown for each sector.

Observe that the numbers for gliders are 19.45 accidents per 100,000
hours flown, with 5.07 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours. That's
second only to amateur-built aircraft, with 21.6 and 5.5 respectively.

Contrast that with the numbers for single-engine piston-powered
airplanes with 7.91 accidents and 1.41 fatal accidents per 100,000
hours. In 2003 at least, gliders had 245% more accidents and 360% more
fatal accidents per hour than the puddle-jumpers that comprise the
majority of the US general aviation fleet.

There's no breakdown for poor saps like me who combine the two worst
categories by dabbling in amateur-built gliders, but my bet is that
the numbers would be somewhere between the two.

As concerns comparisons between the accident rates of flying and
driving, I defer to this analysis by Harry Mantakos:

http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flyin...vsdriving.html

Given those numbers, I normally feel fairly confident when I say that
soaring is much more dangerous than driving, and is perhaps comparable
to riding a motorcycle. But I do tend to get odd looks when I go on to
say that I gave up riding on the street and took up Formula IV
roadracing (125cc anything-goes full-fairing 2-stroke bikes with top
speed of about 100 mph) because I thought it was safer as well as more
fun.

Bottom line: I don't recommend flying or soaring to just everybody.
Based on what I know about their methods, means, and risk aversion,
for some folks I recommend knitting or photography.

Thanks, Bob K.

On 1 Nov, 00:41, Bob Kuykendall wrote:

Observe that the numbers for gliders are 19.45 accidents per 100,000
hours flown, with 5.07 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours.

Coo. And I just estimated (in another post before seeing this) a
fatality every 25,000 pilot hours in the UK.

Ian

On Oct 31, 7:41 pm, Bob Kuykendall wrote:
...clip...

Observe that the numbers for gliders are 19.45 accidents per 100,000
hours flown, with 5.07 fatal accidents per 100,000 hours. That's
second only to amateur-built aircraft, with 21.6 and 5.5 respectively.

Contrast that with the numbers for single-engine piston-powered
airplanes with 7.91 accidents and 1.41 fatal accidents per 100,000
hours. In 2003 at least, gliders had 245% more accidents and 360% more
fatal accidents per hour than the puddle-jumpers that comprise the
majority of the US general aviation fleet
....clip...

As concerns comparisons between the accident rates of flying and
driving, I defer to this analysis by Harry Mantakos:
http://www.meretrix.com/~harry/flyin...vsdriving.html

Given those numbers, I normally feel fairly confident when I say that
soaring is much more dangerous than driving, and is perhaps comparable
to riding a motorcycle. ...clip...

The fatalities-per-hoiur statistics in soaring were presented at SSA a
couple of years ago, and Judge McWhorter, sitting next to me, compared
it to the fatality rate in coal mining, a famously risky occupation.
Judge quickly calculated in his head that soaring has about a five-
fold greater fatality rate per hour than coal miners.

But he's a mining-safety expert; his next point was not that coal
mining is too dangerous, or that soaring is too dangerous, but that
formal safety practices, taught and followed with discipline, reduce
the fatality experience rate tremendously in coal mining, and would in
soaring also.

The key to devising safety practices is understanding the behavior and
circumstances that increase the incidence of deadly accidents (we call
them 'accidents' because the participants had no intention of having
them).

The key to making safety practices effective is to follow them with
discipline and understanding.

Now, the caveat is that we can ultimately control only our own
behavior; we merely influence others, which is not the same thing. So
we then need to understand also to what extent we are at risk from
others' foolishness or ignorance, or from uncontrollable factors.

In this regard, a colleague stopped riding motorcycle completely,
during college, when he discovered a statistic that said that 2/3 of
motorcycle accidents are due to autos turning left in front of the
motorcycle. Most of the risk was beyond his control, and he wanted to
matriculate through medical school with intact brain and spinal cord.

Another factor is tolerable risk. Several posters have alluded to
this: a single parent with small children will have little tolerance
for personal risk, for the sake of the children. Others have more
room. I'm not here to deride either.

And fear itself is an very aversive emotion. Whether or not the fear
is rational, it's real, and it's distracting. One sensible response
to fear is withdrawal from the situation. If this means to stop
soaring, so be it, for that person. For others, it stimulates
additional study or training, or a change in location or practices.
So be it.

Thanks for listening.

DJ

On Oct 31, 4:04 pm, jeplane wrote:
On Oct 30, 6:50 pm, Ramy wrote:
" No matter how safe you think you are, the risk is still
significantly higher than most normal activities (such as driving)"

You sure?

How many times have you seen a traffic accident on your way to the
gliderport?

In the same time frame, how many glider accidents have you seen in
that same airport?

Although I can appreciate what Patrick is going through, stopping from
flying ARE NOT going to stop accidents from happening. And I doubt the
deads would have want us to stop anyway...

Yes, I am sure and I think Marc explained it very well. No need to be
a rocket scientist to do the math. Couple of posters on this thread
clearly don't understand basic statistics. And yes, stopping from
flying WILL stop flying accident to happen to those who stops flying.
But I agree with you with one thing, the deads would not want us to
stop flying. But I am also sympathise with those who got traumatized
witnessing accidents and losing friends.
And don't get me wrong, I am not advocating stopping flying, in the
contrary, I will be the last one to stop, but at least I do not live
in denial as some others, am very well aware that there is a big risk
and I have only partial control of the risk as I am human and all
human are prone to mistakes, and I am willing to take the risk since
it worth it for me. As my new bumper sticker says "I live to fly and I
fly to live" and hopefully I'll be able to do it for years to come.

Ramy

Not sure I agree with this quote.

How many times have you seen a traffic accident on your way to the
gliderport?

How mnay times have you seen a glider accident at that airport in the
same time frame?

Richard
Phoenix, AZ

On Oct 30, 5:50 pm, Ramy wrote:
" No matter how safe you think you are, the risk is still
significantly higher than most normal activities (such as driving). "

Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
it???

If it is a major concern for you, then it's time for you to get out of
it.
I will concentrate on striving to let good judgement, not my ego,
drive my decision process. In other words, I will try not to do
anything "Bloody Stupid", and wreck my glider.

Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other
sport can give
me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc.
But is it worth
it???

Is anything worth it? You can die from sex, from eating,
from drinking too much water, from too much sleeping.


Hiding under the bed is not living. Stay wary, but
live your life with some risks taken; otherwise you
will never know who you are, or of what you are capable.

Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
it???

Hi Patrick,

For myself the answer is a firm Yes. This subject is near and dear to
all of us, as has been repeated by the replies here every pilot must
personally address the question. Your question is valid and
appropriate as Soaring is an "all in sport"and not for everyone, if
after serious reflection the answer is other than a true Yes... then it
certainly would be time to hang it up and OK to do so.

Back in 1999 I asked myself that same "is it worth it"question about
flying Hang Gliders, after 23 years of flying HGs I became a bit
complacent so my answer was "No". The main reason and simple answer is
because I wasn't "all in" and that's a recipe for big trouble. So I
shifted to Sailplanes because I still love soaring where the interest
and passion to fly returned 10 fold. I too have lost close friend in
both sports, some very reciently but I've lost many more friends and
family to cancer and traffic accidents. A few years ago my sister fell
off a ladder while hanging a bird feeder in a tree, she is now a
quadrapalegic, what can you say, you never know how long you may have
as the risks in life are many. For all the reasons and more mentioned
in the other replies posted here I say yes because speaking only for
myself it's what makes me tick, helps to keep me firmly engaged in
living a full life with a an grin and a twinkle in the eye. it's one
of the great reasons to be alive.

Rick - 21
Colorado, USA

Thanks for all the view's. If I am going to quit, I am definately not
going to spend my life on bed There are lot of other ways to have
great time too. Though soaring is extremely the best rush I can get. I
like to polish the rock, beat the **** out of the skiers and so on.
Who wouldn't Like John said, there is nothing better than have that
100mile final glide back home after 500 miles behind you. But still I
don't know if it is worth it any more. Though one reason can be that I
have experienced it all already. Flown 20 years, about 4000hrs. But my
main consern still is that people dies. Of course you can die
anywhere, doing anything. But none of my tennis friends hasn't died on
tennis court. None of my icehockey friends hasn't died on ice rink.
None of my sailing friends hasn't died while sailing and so on... But
I've lost and wittnessed way too many fatalities. It totally changes
your view when you are first person on an fatal accident site. Done
that 4 times. Sure there has been stupid errors, but still. You can't
rig your tennis racket wrong...


On 31 loka, 00:27, Rick Culbertson wrote:
Soaring is the greatest sport I can imagine. No other sport can give
me the feeling, same view, same fellowship etc etc. But is it worth
it???

Hi Patrick,

For myself the answer is a firm Yes. This subject is near and dear to
all of us, as has been repeated by the replies here every pilot mus
personally address the question. Your question is valid and
appropriate as Soaring is an "all in sport"and not for everyone, if
after serious reflection the answer is other than a true Yes... then it
certainly would be time to hang it up and OK to do so.

Back in 1999 I asked myself that same "is it worth it"question about
flying Hang Gliders, after 23 years of flying HGs I became a bit
complacent so my answer was "No". The main reason and simple answer is
because I wasn't "all in" and that's a recipe for big trouble. So I
shifted to Sailplanes because I still love soaring where the interest
and passion to fly returned 10 fold. I too have lost close friend in
both sports, some very reciently but I've lost many more friends and
family to cancer and traffic accidents. A few years ago my sister fell
off a ladder while hanging a bird feeder in a tree, she is now a
quadrapalegic, what can you say, you never know how long you may have
as the risks in life are many. For all the reasons and more mentioned
in the other replies posted here I say yes because speaking only for
myself it's what makes me tick, helps to keep me firmly engaged in
living a full life with a an grin and a twinkle in the eye. it's one
of the great reasons to be alive.

Rick - 21
Colorado, USA