Options in Summer of '45

I'd like to give the A-Bomb naysayers a list of options and see what THEY
would've done in Summer of '45 to end the Pacific War, so here goes:

1) Bombing and Blockade: May take up to 18 months according to JCS.
Still some traffic from Korea to Japan via Sea of Japan despite USN subs
now in Sea of Japan.

2) Invasion: Scheduled to begin with OLYMPIC against Southern Kyushu on or
after 1 Nov 45 to seize air and naval base areas to support the next operation-CORONET
on or after 1 Mar 46 against the Kanto Plain. Casualty estimates for Kyushu
range from 49,000 from Nimitz' HQ to 70,000 from MacArthur's HQ. Casualties
from CORONET not yet estimated, but best guess is 2X Kyushu's. Japanese expected
to fight fiercely for the homeland, military and civilian, similar to Okinawa.
Expect mass Kamikaze air, surface, and subsurface suicide attack (midget
subs and Kaiten human torpedoes). 20-40% of casualties expected to be sailors.


3) Soviet intervention: Wanted on Asian Mainland, especially in Manchuria
and Korea, also Southern Sakhalin and the Kuriles. Bring Kwantung Army to
battle and destroy it. Hope Japanese fold before Ivan lands in Hokkaido,
though-it's the last thing JCS wants.

4) The Atomic Bomb: new and unproven, testing expected mid-July 45. If successfully
tested, expect combat use early August at earliest. Four cities chosen as
initial targets, with additional targets under consideration. Expected power
of 2-5,000 tons of TNT. Promise of 1 plane, 1 bomb, 1 city. Shock and suprise
factor needs to be decisive (Oppenheimer's advice). No feasible demonstration
possible without endangering Allied POWs or delivery aircraft. At least two
drops may force surrender, but more if necessary. Production to reach 7 bombs/month
by November 45. Use of bombs in invasion under serious consideration by JCS.


Unconditional Surrender is the objective: nothing less will be considered
by either Allies or by Congress and American public. Publicly and privately
committed to follow FDR's policy of Unconditional Surrender.

All right, here are the options: now choose which one ends the war in the
shortest time possible with the lowest cost in Allied and Japanese lives.


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